stotm
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Posts posted by stotm
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Some info on the met office web site in respect to there icons. If the correct conditions to snow and it’s 80% or more chance of precipitation you get two snow flakes if 70% or less it’s one snow flake. So the way the site/app is set up you can’t have heavy snow if there is only 70% chance of precipitation. So very very poor guide on intensity of snow fall.
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1 minute ago, Ols500 said:
Box hill 37.6cm
Death hill 40cm
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On 08/02/2020 at 12:25, The PIT said:
Might as well save your breath. I had an argument on here over somebody else who was putting themselves and others at risk when storms were predicted. They came back abusive so I had to block them.
Good job it isn't Monday would be expected to turn into work.and be told off if I didn't.
Hi, had 7 hours of the most fun you can have walking in hurricane force winds and rain that hurt.
On pen y fan Sunday the winds got so high we could not stand up and had to crawl at points, got blown of our feet lots . Grate fun and a hell of a workout only moving at about 1mph .
To put all people in same bracket “save your breath” and “people like you” when you have no idea to who you are talking about is a bit unfair but that’s the way it is now I suppose.
A lot of planning and waiting for this to come together. Some like to watch some like to do ... I like both. -
Going Brecon Beacons Sunday do you think will get 100mph on pen y fan.?
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Snow now on side roads now. West kinsdown.
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A few Snow flakes here ...
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Hi, with all the models about the same until 66 hours , the gfs assembles look very close too each other. Can any one tell me until we get to about this 66 hours we will not see if the lows progress is making inroads to the block more or less . So will all out put be wrong after this if models like gfs do not get blocking correct? Or am I not getting this wrong.Thanks
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So the weather warnings start on bbc site (from met office), but the weather on there graphics shows sunny and one snow flake. It’s like there using two sources of information? Oh just a minute they are !
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
I would certainly subscribe to that echo image above from @kold weather however based on the instability I expect to see the first line of attack about 8-10pm sun - along the estuary then gradually progress from there
hoping for 2-3cm before Dawn monday so I can call off the school run !
Have to go to gatwick 9.30 pm Monday , might not be fun then.
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Lots of talk about “talking the output down this morning”, the thing is I am having trouble finding this talk ? Models look from good to epic if cold and snow is that you like , let’s see which it will be?
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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Last two ecm runs going for cold last two meto runs going less cold,something’s got to give in next run surely
im not bothering with gfs its just junk how it just flips and flops every 6 hours
Very true it’s almost random, that’s why it has 4 goes a day ?
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13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
ECM and GFS at complete loggerheads again, this isn't good for us lot knowing whats going on. I wonder where MOGREPs stands - cold by next weekend, or with the ECM.
It’s because they don’t have clue on how to deal with what’s going on so it’s more or less random output. The both say cold weather coming then one says it’s not then it is. Sadly we have to wait as 5 days plus forecast is not going to be correct at all.
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Hi, would it not be the case all these forecast systems are programmed to follow just a set of rules given them by experts on weather systems and physics? So like beep blue the chess program was told the rules of chess and when it played enough games could bet the worlds best players, but the rules are all known and the starting positions are known.
So these weather forecast are not sure on start positions of pieces and don’t know the all the rules. So how can any of these outputs after day five (not good at the best of times)have a chance of being correct cold or mild if we do not have enough data on how to respond to major warming and or split that we have only had about 20 total examples of?
How did the outputs deal last time in the run up to ssw? I am only guessing but I bet it was not good but then so are the models.
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Lots of snow now a20 getting covered in west kingsdown , cars will start getting stuck soon by brands hatch...
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West kingsdown, it should show next to name. Nw kent.
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Snow here now too.
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20 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Cmc/GEM currently the leading mod...
beleive it or not....
so disscount it at your peril!!!
Hi.
Is this for 24hours forecast? As that’s a very small error rate.
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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Update from Ian following the ECM ens
Can't be discounted, oh yes it can I just have.
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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
The ECM looks chaotic past day 7. A series of shortwave interactions unlikely to be replicated.The ECM goes into the SD category, synoptic drivel!
They need to take it offline for a bit as they seem to have a few algorithms to rewrite. I wonder if the programmers (mathematicians) have metrology experience ? or the people with metrology experience are doing the programming... Or do they have some of both as it seems there is a bit lost in translation maybe?
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7 minutes ago, stotm said:
3 models at day 10, all different would you believe it?
Sorry what I wanted to says has there ever been 3 models at day 10 the same? Lol
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3 models at day 10, all different would you believe it?
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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
So at D10 after the 00z's / 06z we have a westerly, easterly and southwesterly
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SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
Good snow in west kingsdown now,