Troubleatmill
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Posts posted by Troubleatmill
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26 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
Models especially poor with the handling of AAM strength for this specific rise, last few forecasts have corrected the GLAAM rise fairly significantly stronger so I don't think the deterministic runs will have any sort of pattern scheduled properly till after the AAM rise and when it flattens out into a phase 6/weak frictional torque loss around day 6-7 maybe. So not till next week will we have a proper idea in my opinion. Then we've got a potential second rise to contend with.
So no real point looking at the models for a few days then? Apart from for anything in the nearer term?
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Anyone know what this was like heading through Chester? Looks a barnstormer!
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8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
They’re typically more common later in winter that’s my experience, so it sort of follows climatology, getting one in December which can produce is very uncommon, things tend to settle down more later in winter with high pressure more influential. February is third driest month in London, interestingly on 1981-2010 climatology February was driest month of year. A reflection of how our winters have changed, February particularly has changed similarly December, in contrast to January which has been more static in last 20 years. 2024 likely adding to that.
February can be frustrating month can't it, especially the last third unless you get severe cold aka 2018.
On one hand the PV should be starting to weaken naturally, SSTs are at or approaching there coldest and yet solar energy is increasing
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I think it's safe to say the GEFS are buying into the whole Scandinavian high possibility
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6 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
Agreed, in fact the lack of a significant EHF response that occurs long after a proper SSWE shows that. Normally you have - VE EHF lasting 40 days post ssw, peaking at day 10-15. This - VE EHF response is sort of a sharp yet weak looking return to the Strat state peaking around what, day 5-7 ish? Before surface forcing can take over again.
Just as I was thinking I knew what the clever folk were saying
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Meanwhile on our door step, Sunday in to Monday is still looking very wild , our friends over in Ireland/n Ireland could be in for a shocking time, sure if it carries on being modelled like this, the met will be out with the warnings
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44 minutes ago, AO- said:
Agree. For me it was once in a lifetime up untill now and that was 2012.
That is a really nice example indeed, but I'm affraid that is rather unlikely. We will see as details upstream are important how far west the WAA will be. The latest run(s) the block was pushed east before proper WAA could get the block towards Scandinavia/Russia.
I must admit that the latest EPS was a downgrade compared to the 00.
Agree there pal, on the latest ensembles there has been a very strong +NAO making it difficult for anything to get a foothold in scandi. Can and will change as it's so far out but certainly not great chart viewing.
Who knows, the next runs might hint at the energy just off the eastern board digging south again, allowing ridging to set up as we want it too aka yesterday's 12z
Main point was, if we we did get a true scandi high emerging, I wouldn't be too bothered about the 850s before hand (build it and they will come) as the ridging will pull cold air down from the arctic into Scandinavia as part of the building blocks
All we can do is keep an eye out and hope
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13 minutes ago, AO- said:
The problem with the synoptics atm is that if we get a Scandinavian high, there won't be any cold left to put on transport towards Northwest Europe. Thats why I would prefer retrogressing of the Siberian high into Russian. I see that as one of the few options left to get a proper cold spell on short notice.
I've always been a little unsure about this, as if a true scandivian high was to set up, cold would soon be brought in around it. Using last night's 12z as an example, nothing much out east as you would expect with a westerly flow all the way to western russia, however as soon as the scandi high asserts itself..bingo! It's all about getting the scandi high to align itself right.
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55 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
FWIW I'd stab at a Sceuro High for the beginning of Feb which might produce a chilly feel ..
We defo don't want to see the TPV getting comfortable over Greenland..
The ECM agreeing with you mate, although maybe sooner than Feb, with the majority going for a sceuro in the 192-240 range, with the deterministic in cluster 3 (only 8 members towing that path)
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7 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:
We had two and last year either they’ve mated and had babies or there’s another set… as we have heard four in close proximity… there are some tall pines trees and we are between two parks… I’ve had one of them fly over my head on a couple of occasions… once it was on the roof above the back door.. eyeing up the field mice that live in the back stone wall…
today had the local heron (usually see it fly between the parks) fly in a circle around our house whilst we were having some boxes delivered
Fantastic pal, great to see and hear! Get foxes in my garden pretty often from the field at the back but never seen the owl yet...good to see nature doing well hey!
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
Not quite as ridiculous as it looks but gfs op definitely over doing the signal at this time. Something to follow in fi for a few runs to see how long we have to wait for it to repeat
Looking at the early stamps, it's not without support, not much.. but it's there, see how the later frames fare
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3 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:
Temp 1c dew -1c here now according to my weather station at top of the garden… skies have eventually cleared too… can hear the owl
out
Is it a twit or a twoo? I have had a twit (female) for months, clearly on the pull for a bloke but none answering!
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22 minutes ago, Spah1 said:
I’ve had my little fix the Southerners can have their Easterly.
Only 12 days away.
I wouldn't mind a freezing cold easterly, even if it was mostly dry. Just to be able to take the dog out without losing a boot every time in the mud
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1 hour ago, Rob 79812010 said:
No rapid thaw here. Should still be snow on ground tonight which, with any luck, will stick around till weekend. Could be some sneaky snow showers Thursday also. TBH, am banking this one!
Not convinced. Were always marginal in low areas and no real melt here yet. Even as a kid they often turned to slush
As much as I am buzzing about the snow we have had in the NW today (totally unexpected) I think the warm sector that was always forecast to come in, is now coming in.
Hopefully those further east and north of where I am will escape too much melt, but think most of central & west Lancs and Merseyside & western Mancs are going to see quite a bit of melt before dusk
Still bloody chuffed with what we have had though!!!!
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Right on the very edge of the snow line now in Preston, have a good 2" to 3" hopefully it can stay on the ground until the colder 850's swing back in later
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50 minutes ago, Hoghtonwhite said:
Mental for our low lying standards.
Once in a decade event for us isn't it! Totally unexpected, bit like the streamer we got in 2010 was too
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Should be a bank holiday every time it snows!
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5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:
Drizzle in Kirkham.
Still snow in Preston, so hopefully it'll still be around for you when you get home laterz
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:
We need to start seeing improvements in FI soon - rest of Jan looks a complete write off.
Mustn't grumble we have a covering here ,first one since early Dec mind.
Yes mate, although first lying snow since Dec 2010 for me incredibly.
A warm up is happening from the weekend and default winter temperate meh weather is going to set in for the rest of Jan. However following on from the 12z GEFS last night, this morning's ECM anomolies are also showing in the very far reaches where the next 'chase' is likely to come with a euro high perhaps tracking north to scandi.
Way to far out to get excited, but hopefully in the next few days we will start to see some decent scandi high charts appearing at the very end of the GFS runs & associated ensembles
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Well that's it, it's snowed, I'm happy now
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1 hour ago, WillinGlossop said:
Light to moderate snow… -2c dew -2.8c a covering 1-2cm and inch in places…
About the same in Preston Will, maybe fraction more since you sent this. The difference over here is that this will go down in folklore as the great blizzard of 24
Even the centre of Preston looks nice in the snow!
1 hour ago, WillinGlossop said:Light to moderate snow… -2c dew -2.8c a covering 1-2cm and inch in places…
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Nice surprise!!
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31 minutes ago, saintkip said:
Look at his location and look where the snow is, pretty obvious my friend
I know mate, it was tongue in cheek #regional discussion buddy
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The graph ensembles for the 12z GEFS don't paint a pretty picture, however the postage stamps are starting to show the next blocking ideas
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Starting to get worried about the rest of winter, the GFS OP all the way to to t384 is shocking and the GEFS ens out to t240 all have strong heights to the south...ominous, of course it can change, but in just over a week we will be saying we are running out of time