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SylvainTV

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Posts posted by SylvainTV

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, MattStoke said:

    Seems to have frozen again? In fact, 156 and 180 hours has updated but 144, 150 and 162 to 174 hours haven’t.

     

    1 minute ago, evans1892 said:

    Something clearly going wrong with the 18z run roll out on Meteociel. Fragmented.

    Yes sorry, there are some missing files on the NCEP servers, they're coming very slowly. I try to get and draw the ones that are present. The files are correct though, no data corruption.

    • Like 2
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    Model output discussion - mid January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SylvainTV

    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Strange considering ecmwf own website only at day 6. Does this mean that the chosen few European weather bureau’s usually get the ecm op and ens half an hour before us mere mortals ???

    i can confirm that it does match ecm output at day 7 so it’s genuine 

    Yes something is fishy there :) This shows that there is a delay for us, or they improved the computation speed a lot. I think we usually have a delay because the datetime of the files are the "usual ones".  We will see if it's the same for ENS. Yesterday they changed their FTP server, so probably something didn't get implemented correctly. I think the delay will be readded when they will notice it has disppeared ;)

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SylvainTV

    14 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

    Then the info in the meteociel app is incorrect (according to meteociel all run 1 degree?

    The information might be outdated in the app. GFS is displayed at 0.25° and GEFS at 0.5°.

    Moreover there is a difference between the actual resolution the models are run with, and the data resolution that we get to display. The models are not ran on traditional lat/lon grids.

    the GFS model is currently computed with a resolution of about 13km ( T1534 , spectral truncation ), and we get it as 0.25° in usual grib files.
    the GEFS model (control + 20 perturbations) is currently computed with a resolution of about 33km (T574, spectral truncation) until 192h and 55km (T382) till the end, and we get it as 0.5° or 1.0° in usual grib files.

    • Thanks 3

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SylvainTV

    6 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

    Hi @SylvainTV

    any chance of getting UKMO 168 on meteociel?

    thanks

    Steve

    Hi Steve.

    Probably not. We don't have access freely to the 168 data. UKMO data is already very sparse. But if i ever find it, it will get on the site right away. Moreover it is weird, the MetOffice site mentions only forecasts up to 144h here : https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

    Sylvain

    • Thanks 5

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Not ramping just describing. Occasional light banter is acceptable as long as it does not consume the post. And nuts is an homonym...

    Glitched? Only a 1325% chance of snow in the Capital on Saturday. GEFS are looking much better than they did early this morning unless this faulty.

    542B1809-0A77-4877-B7DF-49CD71A76244.thumb.gif.6c00269f1f8572f07d576a68b12906e5.gif

    There were some NCEP server issues tonight causing delay and weirdness like that. I will rebuild all now :) Not many perturbation data are faulty, Most is ok.

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    Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 05/02/2017 at 22:09, Steve Murr said:

    @sebastiaan1973

    hiya - any plans in the near future of getting the following on Meteociel -

    UKMO 168

    UKMO 120/144/168 850's

    best

    steve

    Hello, sorry for the late answer : unfortunately we don't have access to this data freely (and it costs > 100000€ yearly) . Whenever it is available, it will be available on the site the day after :)

    • Like 12

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SylvainTV

    2 hours ago, Yarmy said:

    Hi, Chris. I don't know about the JMA op as it is not part of the verification comparisons provided by NCEP:

    cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

     

    JMA stats are available for the 12Z runs, the 0Z run does not go far enough :

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/

     

    cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX_gat0.png

    Besides, I have added again the NCMRWF model, they now run the MetOffice Unified Model for their model (but not the same assimilation) once a day. Not many fields to look at though.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ncmrwfe_cartes.php

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SylvainTV

    3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    Are you sure it's in the public domain?  I mean you linked to it so assume it's ok ?  Not sure what you meant by being wary about sharing the charts and then posting a link!! 

    Anyway, it the parallel op is freely available, perhaps sylvain can stick it on meteociel as he often does pre implementation.

    Hello, sorry can't do that, I have no access to parallel ECMWF data at all . It seems only customers have access to it.  I think he forgot to put a restriction on this page, ECMWF parallel data is usually even more restricted than operationnal data so it shouldn't be accessible freely, ( and the Op is actually available there too ... ). Maybe it's just a sample

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    Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, swebby said:

    I am sure the location in the ensembles, especially in the low res part of the run needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.  The Devon ensembles on NW are always out of kilter with the control run in the latter stages and a few years back i rmember Steve Murr mentioning that the london ensembles that purga has posted is actually a grid ref near the isle of wight.

    It is not the good GFS run data that is plotted on this Wetterzentrale graph (it was probably the 00Z run). Note that the location taken for London is "Lat : 51 Long : 0" which is 50km south of London. They use the nearest point of GEFS 1.0deg data. The Isle of Wight thing was probably when GEFS data had a 2.5deg resolution.

    Same thing for the GFS op resolution. It had a 2.5deg resolution in the > 192hours part of the run until the last GFS upgrade.

    (On Meteociel we now use GEFS 0.5deg / GFS 0.5deg data for the graphs and interpolate between grid points, so the values are supposedly more conform for London)

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    Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    It's on Wetterzentrale,but doesn't show it on meteocial

    Rjma1921.thumb.gif.8150a905ddb2c7d76bd2c

    have a look:D

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsjmaeur.html

    Oops I have to fix that on Meteociel,  it's so rare that I didn't even bother drawing iso lines after 1055hPa. Sorry about that ! However remember that the Greenland altitude is quite high, so that Pression at Mea Sea Level is quite "virtual" and does not mean much.

    • Like 11

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Hi, do you know if the GEFS 10mb temperature charts will be switched on or not please?, they were available until the upgrade, I know they are available elsewhere but its just handy as I use meteociel for almost all the model output I view.

    They will be here for the GEFS 12Z :) The problem is that NOAA/NCEP split differently data between A and B files for the 0.5° resolution data... Have to get different fields from both files now.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 19/12/2015 at 10:00 AM, bluearmy said:

    If sylvain is viewing, I note the ECM parallel is now showing some data on weatherbell re surface conditions. No charts re slp or heights etc.  would be good to see the para ECM op on meteociel to compare with the para gfs. 

    Yes it would be nice, but unfortunately, it's not available for free. Only the paying customers are getting these data. Some info about this future version of ECMWF on https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Detailed+information+of+implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2 . It's supposed to go public in March 2016.  New GFS in April/May 2016. 

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SylvainTV

    Incidentally, if sylvain is around, the meteociel parallel gefs mean and anomolys aren't updating since the 2nd october

     

    Thanks, I fixed it ! Indeed I have to compute Avg and Spread manually for the new 0.5° / 3h  datasets, and take Z500/T500 fields in another file. They made everything harder (if you want to use the more detailed version at least)  :)

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Naefs when automated (which is gefs and Canadian). I think that the Canadian ens may go higher than 10hpa. Anyway, your point is valid in that respect but when made by forecasters, they include ECM charts as and when the forecast deems appropriate.

    Given that the current warmings are well established below 10 hpa, I'm not sure that there will be that much of a surprise in the output going forward. Where there is a warming predicted to begin above 10hpa then there is an argument that models which don't top out high enough could miss it in their output due to initialisation data not seeing this.

     

    FYI, GEFS goes up to 2hPa.

    http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/GEFS_status_plan.pdf

     

    Will soon be 0.2hPa in the next update planned in 2015 !

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think the Blue line is the GFS 12Z op run, is it not?

     

    Perhaps someone else can confirm this.

     

    Edit: 18Z Ens look fairly decent at 192.

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

     

    I computed manually the average/spread for the GEFS 18z, now they're available from +180h (I will redo all from +0 once the run is finished)

     

    And yes the blue line is supposed to be the 12Z GFS run but there were data issue today, so who knows :)

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    What time does GFS P update for the 06z? meteociel is still stuck on the 00z run

     

    ps the version on netweather is stuck on yesterdays 12z

     

    I think there is still some maintenance, there is no data at all, even not data from parallel GDAS 06z.

     

    It is probably linked to this :

    "Tuesday 12/9 :  NCO will run a single-cycle parallel production test on

    Gyre to test functionality post-Phase 2 integration.  No developer

    access to the system during the test."

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