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Hedgehog

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    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A fascinating run, let’s hope for one last hurrah for winter 09/10, then get on with spring and warmer weather.

    Totally Totally agree

    I would certainly bank this run.

    I will add that I believe one of the reasons for the apathy recently on this thread is due to the time of year and that some feel only slushy, marginal snow events are possible. However this is untrue and the 06Z perfectly demonstrates this. The 06Z would deliver ice days but also dry, powdery snow rather than wet snow. This is important because you will find wet snow thaws alot quicker than dry powdery snow that has compacted down and froze overnight.

    Look at the upper temps, surface temps, dewpoints at +180.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1804.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1808.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1802.gif

    Very little thawing would occur here. Even spells of sunshine would only melt the top layer of the snow but this would turn to ice instantly.

    Well said

    Just looked at the ensembles and many go for some kind of E,ly. However as expected some differences between the members with some going with the GFS Op and others having the HP/LP further S meaning the snowfall hits France instead of the UK.

    One word comes to mind when viewing the ensembles though and thats wind chill. Check out the link below from member 17.

    http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-17-1-192.png?6

    If the 06Z verified the combination of -13C upper temps, strong E,ly flow, below average SSTS would mean bitterly cold days.

    Still I have learn't not to get excited unless what the 06Z shows appears at +48 with agreement from all models.

    Ok this sorts next weekend. What with the short term i.e. Sunday through Thursday. Better or worse with the 06Z?

    Just looked at the ensembles and many go for some kind of E,ly. However as expected some differences between the members with some going with the GFS Op and others having the HP/LP further S meaning the snowfall hits France instead of the UK.

    One word comes to mind when viewing the ensembles though and thats wind chill. Check out the link below from member 17.

    http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-17-1-192.png?6

    If the 06Z verified the combination of -13C upper temps, strong E,ly flow, below average SSTS would mean bitterly cold days.

    Still I have learn't not to get excited unless what the 06Z shows appears at +48 with agreement from all models.

    Ok this sorts next weekend. What with the short term i.e. Sunday through Thursday. Better or worse with the 06Z?

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    You must of missed my posts because I have been commenting on tomorrows snowfall.

    Generally speaking we're looking at around 5-7mm of precip with only 3mm N of the Midlands. Due to the timing of this precip I feel W parts are favoured for greater snowfall totals compared to those in the E.

    http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/20/basis06/ukuk/rsum/10022118_2006.gif

    Remember this is only one run, the next runs may pull the cold air south again

    The Gulf stream....

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    No, I take issue with that. Firstly, it was not an argument against G-W if you refer to Global Warming and was I think a pertinent one against Grey Wolf if it is to his original proposition that you refer. The crux is whether in the absence of a specific formula tying together inputs and outputs before human induced CO2, you can somehow ascertain through extrapolation the effects of human activity. Secondly, unlike Parkinson’s where we only know the outcome because we've seen it before, we cannot project anything from where we stand because we've never been here before. We are, if we must use analogies, examining a patient whose symptoms give us concern but whose exact condition baffles us (except that it is certainly not Parkinson’s) and their prognosis is therefore beyond our skill to predict. Third, and last, there could be an as yet unidentified factor involved in the forcing you refer to, and it is just as likely to be very small as very big. Either way it remains outside our capacity to isolate and explain.

    Global warming - I have an open mind on the subject but something is happening and it is probably more noticeable in the UK because of the type of climate we have. Personaaly I think that it is down to the shear increase in human population if nothing else.

    As for the golf stream - I agree with the theology of it reducing to maybe nothing. I thing that it will make a noticeable difference in the UK colder winters YES Warmer summers YES but not the extremes that some are talking about. Probably as mentioned the sort of winters we used to have. Canada cannot be used as yardstick as there are different factors involved. Maybe the yardstick should be parts of central Europe

    Well thats my thoughs

    Peter

    12z Model discussion - rain, sleet or snow?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Kold, would you include NW England in that. Still worried about marginal temps here, though BBC does give heavy snow warning for Blackpool. Best chance for a long time though.

    Yes well it would be a very long time here. 1987 since we had real desent snow here

    I think the models will begin to show more and more like a event which many that are under the age of 30 will not remember. As they say "wait a long time for a bus and 2 or 3 come along at once"

    Peter

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