Snowly does it

I will go for a warm one this time around, 8.9

Yes but in every March ever one would expect at least a couple of days at these sorts of temperatures, even before this supposed rampant warming, and it has very little if anyhting to do with GW. The CET will be noticeably lower tan eiter the 71-00 or 61-90 series.

It really depends now on firstly if the unlikely highs progged on the recent and not universally supported GFS runs are reached and then what happens into next week - it would take a warm snap of incredibly unlikely intensity to make the CET for March anything less than very exciting - at best there will be 7-8 days in which to affect the accumulated 23 days of well below average temps and lets not forget the cold nights promised tonight and tomorrow night - by my reckoning the cold tonight and Weds night plus probable lowish maxima weds and thurs will mitigate at least 2 days of warmer weather meaning you have an effective 6 days to bump it up IF its conistently warm, which is by no means certain. Sensible money is still on under 5, somewhere between 4.5 and 5 I think (probably 4.8 as two very wise people suggested at the outset :-D)

how so? There is no way that a mild spell for the last 5-6 days of the monmth can get the CET anywhere near average, unless its midsummer in intensity.

Sleet of the sleety variety this morning, leaden skies and flakes/droplets in the wind now

Although having reconsidered somewhat, the lack of transport network at this time would have exacerbated the impression of white out, with little 'traffic', even a small amount of lying snow would have caused havoc in cross-country travel. Certainly though the pictures painted by messrs Dickens, Hardy et al are not the paintings of todays winter.

yeah, a minmal one though, todays CET may come in around the 5 - 5.5 mark, will make little in the way of difference to the average so far, a small rise.

Historical contemporary accounts are the best guide, and the Thames freezing really is all the evidence needed surely? It may well be an exaggerated figure system, but the contemporary accounts from tis period and say the earlier medieval period (patchy at best) certainly suggest a colder period during what we now call the Little Ice Age. In addition to this there is plenty of evidence from nature, trees etc which show the colder conditions prevalent. Its just hard to be certain of 100% accuracy in the figures. Having said that, scientists and proto-meteorologists were no fools and nothing really suggests that the further back you go the slacker the data gathering.

I know where you're coming from here but what is showing right now does indeed suggest lower than average. It would be a far braver call that we end up near or above the 71-00 average right now because nothing suggests that will happen in the near or further outlook. Yes, that can change, but 'the last few Marches have been warmer' is no basis for ignoringthe blocking patterns within reliable timeframes and those that seem to potentially follow. This march may be a curio in years to come, the odd., cold march that threatened to buck the trend but next year it all goes Bartlett again, or, it may be part of a cooling trend, whatever the reason, and until the outlook changes (drastically) the smart money is on sub 6, only a real gambler would be going above right now.

Unfortunately I beg to differ. 'These days' if taken to mean this year, well the climate has done just about everything in its repetoire to prevent a warm spell. You are right, there is nothing to stop a warm anomoly, but there is equally nothing to stop a ridiculously cold one either. Now, what might happen and what has historically happened aside, the present outlook for most of the remainder of March is set cool to cold with little that would achieve even a CET of 6-7 taken in isloation, let alone bring the level up. This is of course subject to change, but we can only work on what we currently have (anything else is fruitless, it could be 21 or -21 everyday in the world of the possible), and based on current projections I think sub 6 is near certain, sub 5 is quite likely and sub 4 is possible, I am quite happy with my 4.8. As I type Peter Gibbs is on... 'Staying cold for all of us right the way through next week', I nearly fell off my chair! lol

moderate snow shower started here with a real bank of dark skies following in

Heavy snow pellet shower at 9am giving a temporary covering, turned to snow which ceased abruptly, dusting has melted off however continued snow flurries since, none of which have yet settled.

Lengthy light snow shower, again offering a dusting

heavy shower giving a dusting with more general cloud cover and potential for more looking out NNW

short, heavy, snow pellet shower covering grass

light to moderate snow and hail shower lasting 15 mins, no acumulation away from cars and some on the grass

heavy snow showers here, 1 cm covering

sleet here, car windscreens getting claggy

I'm anticipating a long lasting cold snap, longer perhaps than currently projected and some very low minima. Given this, I expect some later month mild weather but under a stagnant HP with relatively low minima again. CET prediction 4.8

Snow overnight 9/10 feb giving a dusting on cars. Daytime 10th feb - Mornign sleet and hail showers and graupel at approx 3pm giving a very temporary whitening of patches.