[Autumn and Winter discussion...]

I regret having to have to say this but if these LRF's pronounced mild would they suddenly not be 'debunked'?

And would this perception of LRF's 'and no-body knows what is going to happen' soundbites suddenly and abruply change?

Tamara

No, I don't think so SP. LRF's are fun - and last year's MO winter prediction was astonishingly accurate in as far as it went (colder than recently and drier than average). But looking a month ahead or more is still a 'guestimate' and depending on the symoptics at the time, a little easier perhaps sometimes than others.

Some people on here - yourself included - (but not me!) SM, GP cetainly (et al) are very knowledgable and it is always interesting to read their (your) forecasts - especially in the more reliable time frame of a week or so ahead. That's where the real skill of forecasting comes in; looking just ahead of what's out there now and that, for me, is what makes the forum so interesting! And you guys are good at it! LRF forecasts though....

Keep up the good work guys - it is much appreciated by all on here otherwise they wouldn't be here!

Thanks.

ukmoose

[Autumn and Winter discussion...]

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There are one or two on here who have a tendency to crow on about methods and efficacy of thier own forecasts, but NOBODY, and I stress, NOBODY, has as yet come up with any robust, reliable method of calling anything in even broad detail more than 5-10 days in advance. The law of large numbers suggests that amongst all the punts one or two will come up from time to time, but show me the person who repeatedly makes correct calls with each and every projection; there aren't any. You can wrap up seasonal projections in as much science or pseudo-science as you like, but at the end of the day they are little more than guesses, for all that there's always a lot of back slapping for anyone projecting cold. It's easy to make popular forecasts, but the measure of success ought to be accuracy I think, and on that basis alone Dawlsh's argument IS robust, whilst not projecting detail all he is doing is backing the climatic norm. Lest we forget, the weather will tend to do, the longer the period being considered, exactly what is written on the tin marked climate.

Stratos, I think you have hit the nail on the proverbial head here and I agree with you. If we're all honest, no-one has a clue what will happen in January. December or even November. Looking at past models is the only way to make any kind of prediction that far out but there are so many variables even that method is unreliable.

I still maintain that it is best to take the last 15 or so years and base predictions on what has happened during that period because there is an underlying pattern - milder overall, much warmer nights tending to raise the CET stats, few very cold days or severe frosts (in the south anyway) warming seas around us and a shift in major pressure belts moving the jet stream further north for longer periods. Result? Mild winters with a few short-lived cold spells (two or three days in duration). Last winter was a little different but not excitingly so and there is no suggestion that I can see that it will be repeated this year.

I'm not a forecaster and do not have the skills that many people on the forum have and I enjoy reading their thoughts and interpretations of the models - and there's always hope...

ukmoose

[Autumn and Winter discussion...]

:lol: Is it just me, or is the rain getting warmer in October? Squally showers today but did not feel like autumn at all.

ukmoose

[October CET]

Warm ground, warm seas nothing much in the way of change in the near future with the wind direction not changing much between west and south and no particularly cold nights o bring the mild days down - I'll go for a mild 12.9 degrees C.

ukmoose

[Autumn and Winter]

Hi everyone,

I don't make too many contributions but I do read the posts with great interest and there are some very knowledgeable people out there. It all makes for fascinating reading.

I'm more of a 'look at the stats and make a prediction bases on probability' than a forecaster but either method has its drawbacks. I know there are 'lies, damn lies and statistics' but climate is about trends bases on statistics so here goes.

The pattern for the last 15 years or so has been for quite warm autumns and mild to very mild winters. Last winter bucked the trend a little - but frighteningly, if you are a cold lover, despite seemingly 'perfect' conditions for a very cold winter, it never materialised. Contrastingly, when the scene is set for record high temperatures they duly appear (reference July and Sepember this year). Why? Read on.

Most months now are warmer than the long term average (not usually by as much as July and September) and very few are below average (even then by only a fraction).

The net result of these increaing temperatures is that the seas around our shores are steadily warming. Our maritime climate means that our weather is moderated by the sea. As water warms and cools much more slowly than land masses, the current warming trend is having more effect on us that our continental neighbours. Couple that with an increase in the number of days with southerly winds (a warm direction) and it is not surprising that our winters are getting warmer and our summers hotter - the warmer the waters around our shores get, the more influence this warm water has on our winter temperatures - hence when cold weather arrives, it is not as cold as it used to be having been warmed by the sea more than it used to be. Contrastingly, the warmer waters do not cool the summe temperatures as much as before hence warmer sumer temperatures. It is a viscious cycle.

In my opinion, last winter was as close as we can get to a cold one (and it wasn't that cold). If we had the same set up this year as last (which seems unlikely) the winter would not even be as cold as last year's because the sea around us has been heated even more during the hot summer and this has continued in to September.

My forecast for autumn - above average temperatures for October and espescially November (probably not record breaking though) followed by slightly warmer than average winter months with more rainfall than last year but not excessive. Very few frosts in either autumn or winter.

PS Hope I'm wrong though!

Best wishes to all,

ukmoose