linarite

Worrying. Rainfall totals in Cumbria could be similar or exceed those of Jan 2005 - check out http://www.geography.org.uk/download/GA_FloodingCarlisleIsohyets.pdf People in flood prone areas of Keswick and Cockermouth will be thinking about shifting valuables upstairs

Indeed so - the rivers here are already full. Actually looking at the Met Office's account of the Jan 2005 event http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/jan2005floods/ rainfall totals then were widely around the 100mm mark, but rarely above, and the record 180mm (Rydal Hall) is given as a one in 200-year event! That makes me think the forecast for this week is even more worrying.

If the max rainfall totals predicted by the Met Office come off, then the flooding this week will be every bit as bad (if not worse) than the Jan 2005 event. Max rainfall back then was at Shap (220mm) in 72 hrs. 250mm would be catastrophic if it occurred widely, and then on top of that there is the storm modelled for Saturday. I expect West Cumbria will be more badly affected this time, but maybe east Cumbria and Carlise (where main catchments are East of high ground) less badly. Keswick and Carlisle have enhanced their flood defences since 2005, but maybe not enough?

When was the last time anyone saw a red (extreme) warning for Cumbria?