Yeti

It's only human nature to be excited, but the main thing I am worried about is the low being progged too far north, because I want my snow on Thursday night! It would be typical, wouldn't it, to see the low crash into the channel, pasting the S coast and leaving us dry , after all the models have suggested it going further N! Is it very often that the lows are progged to far N? Or has there been more reliability in recent times? Remember that Everton is going for snow though, so if he's saying it it's got to happen!

I couldn't agree more - to summarise briefly, the three main models (GFS, UKMO, ECM) are all great. The GFS 12z shows prolonged and heavy snowfall for the Midlands Northwards, the UKMO chart for Saturday shows strong E'ly winds (that ferry crossing will be interesting) and the ECM shows good long term prospects for the UK. As I and many others have said, it could now all have to wait until Thursday night itself - glue your eyes to the radar and watch the track of the low. How far North will it reach? This could make all the difference.

It certainly is something to get excited about! Blocking to the NE for the whole run! I feel guilty getting this excited, but there is a potentially superb event in a close timeframe! With agreement beginning to show between the 3 big models. We're getting a bit closer... And I'm getting carried away again! :blink:

Well I'd be happy with the GFS although obviously others in the south wouldn't due to the more marginal setup. If that UKMO chart does come off then we may find it very tough driving to Hull on Saturday to catch the ferry! High risk of snow showers on that chart, and just imagine the ferry crossing with a choppy East wind like that! I can't imagine that sailing across the North Sea in those conditions promises to be a good experience.

Oooh I would love to head up to the Dales on Friday morning if this comes off... Nothing marginal about it up there! Whilst according to the 12z areas N of Sheffield do not look too marginal, it looks like the midlands could still see the snow because of the intensity of the low (this is obviously no snow shower event). If this happens, would the snow settle in the Midlands? It only takes the ground temp to be 2c, then for a bit of unsettled snow to leave water around, and it can ruin everything... I don't think there will be a clear idea at all until the night itself, with watching lamp posts/headlights/radar.

Freezing rain perhaps possible if the warmer air mass slides above the cold? Maybe an outside chance. I seriously hope the lows haven't been progged too far N - although surely forecasting systems have moved on a lot since the 80's?

Remember the pappy cold spell recently? The cold spell thread had about 15-20 posts per minute A quick question - I missed the 6z while at school, can someone give me a summary?

Tbh the Gfs is good if you live N of Sheffield, but extremely marginal south of here. I won't mention the UKMO - wouldn't want to ramp! What I'm really looking forward to is what has the potential, according to many of the models, to be some of the best radar/lamppost watching we have ever seen! Better get that NW-Extra Notice even dear old Everton has dared to mention the s word... he was saying significant snowfall for many. Up to 2-5cm in the odd place :o shocking lol

In the 6z the prospects were good for here, but the last two runs not so. Tbh I'm not so bothered about the longer term prospects because I won't be here Saturday onwards, and so all I want is one of the lows to produce prolonged snowfall here before then and I'll be very happy :lol: . I would be more disappointed to see the cold spell prolonged without the lows tracking across than to see a 3 hour snow-to-rain event . I know the rest on here wouldn't, but I can see me missing the only snow event of the year while I'm on holiday if the lows track too far S! :lol:

GRRR it's 200 miles too far south!!! At least it's further N than the 12z though.

I don't like this as much; the milder air moves in quickly for the SW and it's extremely progressive. Am I sounding spoiled?

Freezing here Ice forming already, with frost the past few mornings.

Interesting that's the first time this winter that the beeb have forecast this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=2105 Interesting to see whether old Everton mentions it in his no doubt anticipated and reliable forecast update tomorrow I don't know what to make of the ECM. On the one hand, I think it's vital to have its support, and it often backs down with the GFS following shortly after. However, with the support of the UKMO I feel less like this - and remember that it has performed very poorly over the past week.

So we might be in for a major snow event around the tenth as predicted?

I'm going away Saturday afternoon so I seriously hope that if anything does happen, it happens before I go away! I don't like the idea of the lows going too far south - it would be better for the whole country if we got a setup like the 6z, where the front travels ENE across the UK, covering nearly all areas, than a low skimming the South Coast.

I preferred the 6z as far as this area is concerned, with the low taking a more N'ly track; however this is only one run and everything is chopping and changing. What will be really interesting is to see whether the ECM takes this theme on board later on. That would be an encouraging sign.

Channel low much more intense, but perhaps tracking too far south?

OK over-ramping lol, but very heavy nonetheless

By the way I meant to say: if this JMA chart came off the hills and mountains in Ireland would probably be under many feet: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1204.gif 15-20cm per hour snowfall! Looks too marginal for low ground though.

Yep hardly any differences so far.

Each week is the same - he just disguises the word, 'mild' with 'above average' and 'unseasonable'. Every time it's an utter joke. He never seems to mention uncertainty and doesn't even hint at the possibility of a cold spell. My favourite line this time is: "Many of you will recall the Met Office winter forecast, which as far back as September was predicting that it would be a mild winter, with the possibility of an increased number of cold snaps and some snowfall late in the season. Bearing in mind last week's wintry blast, I think we can safely say that (like last year) the forecast has been pretty much spot on." Classic that, one cold spell and he says the MetO forecast is sopt on!

Phwoar! I don't think any of us have ever experienced wind that bad before. Glad I wasn't there, that's all I can say - did it really destroy the Christmas lights? That's blasphemy, wind shouldn't be directed at Christmas decorations...

Great area, love Austria been there many times :lol: Great pics too

Believe it or not there was a more recent event than '87 which saw bitter 850s. 7th February 1991 saw 850 temps of -16 very widespread. I think this is probably the most recent, although not definitely... I'm sure Mr Data can help here. :lol: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219910207.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119910207.gif Quite impressive and often forgotten.

Winter 2006/2007