Peter Henderson
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The BBC are announcing the forthcoming coldspell on their weather forcasts this evening, as are RTE. Weatheronline are confident it's going to get really cold and snowy eventually. The UKMO are still being somewhat cautios and not getting too excited at this stage with a cold or rather cold long range outlook.
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Very wise words indeed from weatheronline, especially the paragraph i put in bold, something some model watchers should take note of.
Have you noticed their forcast for the week ahead ? They're now aggreeing with the BBC's announcement on Monday that there will be another big freeze next week with the cold weather winning out. The UKMO are still hedging their bets though, and being somewhat cautious.
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Indeed, and if the UKMO picks up on something then I will be more interested!
There seems to be something of a discrepency between the BBC and the met office today. The UKMO's long range forcast for Feb 6th to Feb 15th:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_weather.html
UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Feb 2010 to Monday 15 Feb 2010:A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK during the first weekend with south or southeasterly winds probably reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time and this is most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend, although rain or showers will continue in places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the week and into the second weekend. Temperatures likely to start around normal, but probably becoming rather cold or cold, especially in the east.
Contrast the above with the following from the BBC this morning:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209/
SummaryBriefly milder then very, very cold
As January draws to a close, it looks as if December and January have been the coldest since the winter of 1981/1982 for the whole of the UK. In Scotland it will probably be the coldest December and January since records began, way back in 1914. It looks like February will do nothing to bring the average temperature up a bit, in fact quite the opposite.
Monday 1 February 2010 to Sunday 7 February 2010
Eventually turning milder
It will take until about Wednesday for the whole of the UK to get back into the milder westerly airstream from the Atlantic. Before then it does turn briefly milder in Scotland with some rain and hill snow, but we're soon back into the colder northerly airstream. Further south it will be a little milder and wetter through Monday night into Tuesday. The second half of the week and into the weekend sees west or southwesterly winds across the UK. With that comes milder conditions, but also bands of rain in association with low pressure systems. During Wednesday, as the transition happens, there could be some significant snow from the Midlands northwards.
Monday 8 February 2010 to Sunday 14 February 2010
Bitter cold returning
High pressure, an anticyclone, will build over Greenland and Scandinavia, and this is going to have a big impact on our weather. Around the edge of that high comes a bitterly cold easterly wind. Temperatures will be well below average for all parts of the UK, with a noticeable windchill factor and severe overnight frosts. Rainfall amounts are likely to be below normal, however snow could well come out of the near continent to affect southern areas at times. Many places will enjoy some cold sunshine but the skies in eastern Scotland and northeast England will probably be rather cloudy.
Monday 15 February 2010 to Sunday 28 February 2010
Staying very cold
There looks to be little change in the big picture. The large anticylone remains in place producing very cold easterly winds and blocking the progress of Atlantic frontal systems from the southwest. It's going to stay very cold with well below average temperatures and severe overnight frosts. Amounts of precipitation are expected to be around normal in the south and east of the UK, but drier than average conditions are expected in the northwest.
I don't know about everyone else but two completely different long range forcasts. I always thought the Beeb sourced their data from the UKMO ? Which one is correct ? Which one do we believe ? Unusual for the BBC to stick it's neck out like this, or is the UKMO just being overly cautious ?
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Like I say, patiently awaiting the 12z runs on Monday. Look beyond t96 with suspicion. Mild scenario is NOT set in stone, the talk of waiting to get new pattern out of the way...what pattern? We aren't in it yet...but also folks looking for beast from east...no. Look N and NW.
BFTP
All the models are now showing milder atlantic air right up until next weekend, though the metoffice are still predicting something colder eventually:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_weather.html
UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2010 to Sunday 14 Feb 2010:A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK at the end of the first week of February with a chance of south or southeasterly winds reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time with this most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend although rain or showers continue in many places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the second week of the month. Temperatures likely to start around normal becoming cold or rather cold later.
Updated: 1152 on Sun 31 Jan 2010
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Most of the long range forcast models are now predicting the milder Atlantic air will win out this week:
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Week-ahead
Low pressure to dominateModel suggests a south westerly wind flow will set up later during the forecast period which brings in milder air from the Atlantic. Confidence is not real high on this at the moment but it appears to become much more unsettled as Atlantic fronts bring in spells of heavy rain.
the threat of bitterly cold weather in mid Feb. that The Weather Outlook has been pushing does appear to have fizzled out.
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Well, here in Jordanstown we've about an inch of snow on the grass, and around half an inch on the road although main roads are clear. Not much in Belfast itself but plenty visible up over Divis Mountain. Most of it fell yesterday evening in some quite heavy showers. A slight covering around 8.30 p.m. again.
This winter's been the best for many years. Already 4 snow events, with the one after Christmas lasting for a week along with really cold temperatures (-8 one evening), and we're only at the end of January. Next weekend and beyond certainly looks interesting if the predicted easterly comes off.
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Hmmmmm could be some snow around at the end of the week, but we have to remember the days are getting alittle longer and the sun alittle stronger.
Forget this weekend which looks like nothing more than a topling high situation and somewhat milder weather next week. Take a look at the charts for later next week though:
http://www.ukweather.freeserve.co.uk/nwp.htm
they look very interesting indeed. The weather outlook would seem to agree:
Big freeze likely for FebruaryThe next few days will bring generally cold weather, and during Thursday and Friday we are expecting rain, sleet and snow to push south across Britain, with some places possibly having significant accumulations of snow. It is a very marginal situation though, and rain is more likely further south and west. We'll issue an update about this on Wednesday evening.
Looking further ahead, we are expecting more cold weather, and there is a chance of a spell of severe wintry weather developing across the country as we head towards the middle of February. We'll be keeping a very close eye on how this develops as it may well bring the chance of an exceptionally cold February to Britain. The last time the UK had a month when the Central England Temperature (CET) was less than 0C was February 1986, and there is an outside chance that we'll see a similarly cold month this year. As well as being bitterly cold, February 1986 was actually mostly dry. The black and white picture is from the dim and distant past, and shows what conditions were like during February 1947 which is one of the most famous months in UK weather history. As well as being bitterly cold it also brought heavy and widespread snowfalls across almost all of Britain. We're not suggesting February 2010 will be a carbon copy of either of these months, but with a huge amount of cold and heavy air just to our east there is a realistic chance of it turning into a month to remember
even the Met office is getting in on the act:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_weather.html
UK Outlook for Sunday 31 Jan 2010 to Tuesday 9 Feb 2010:Cold at first, with overnight frosts. Wintry showers likely on exposed northern and eastern coasts, but it should be drier and brighter elsewhere, particularly inland. Rain expected to spread from the west on Monday, with snow possible, particularly over hills and in the far north. Turning less cold in the west on Tuesday, with bright or sunny spells and wintry showers in the northeast. Drier conditions are likely further south, extending to most parts by Wednesday (3rd), with lighter winds but cold to near normal temperatures. The mainly dry weather with frost and fog is likely to continue for much of the rest of the period, with temperatures mostly below normal. However, a low risk of much colder conditions with wintry showers may develop at the end of the period.
Updated: 1234 on Tue 26 Jan 2010
It'll be interesting to see how this one pans out.
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Nope, a couple of the models show the cold from the East making a comeback in FI
Well, I haven't seen any models with an easterly either next weekend or next week. The BBC's digital text have snow for Belfast on Friday, and a max of plus 4. Rob McElwee did say it would be interesting at the end of the week but he's been saying that for several weeks now. Accu weather doesn't agree with the easterly either:
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast3.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=BT37 0UL&metric=1
with tepts in the really mild catagory next week.
Still, it could change. There's some very cold weather not that far away.
I'll wait with baited breath for the BBC's monthly outlook and the Met. Office's long range update tomorrow !
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Just seen country file forecaste looks good for east central uk friday saturday fair bit of snow around, western uk not so good with a LP sitting in he irish sea dragging a a more of a nw flow resulting in more sleet than snow initially until the wind changes more to a northley flow.
Indeed, BBC didn't hold out much hope for anything in the west. RTE was a bit more optomistic though. However, the weather information site:
http://www.ukweather.freeserve.co.uk/nwp.htm
Is predicting a topling high with any northerly only lasting a couple of days at the most and a return to westerlies/southwesterlies for the following week with what looks like the dreaded Bartlett high making a comeback. Looks like winter is all but over.
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I've noticed the BBC have been forcasting the cold weather to return for a couple of weeks now, but so far nothing has materialized. Looking at the Ceefax forcasts for Europe, there does seem to be some really cold weather not that far away, with eastern europe being particularly cold. It'll be interesting to see what the BBC's forcast for the week ahead say this morning.
Anyone know what's happened to ITV teletext weather (both digital and analogue ?). The weather section appears to have vanished (along with most of the rest of the service).
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Cloudy in Jordanstown Co. Antrim with a bit of drizzle. Tempt. around plus 4
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Haha, for the first time ever in winter I don't actually care what happens. I'd quite like some sunshine actually, maybe a bit of frost. We had so much snow over christmas etc that I'm not bothered if we don't see any until next year.
Kind of feel the same way. I'm going out next Friday evening and I don't fancy driving in either ice or snow after my near miss and 180 degree turn this day two weeks ago. I've had my snow and I'm happy now !
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Yep, noticed some freezing rain last night here as well but we're completely ice free today.
Ireland as a whole really doesn't do well out of an easterly. The north generally gets snow if Western Scotland gets it, and usually on a North Westerly, sometimes even a Westerly if it's returning maritime polar air. Still, you never know. The northerly could turn unstable and we could get a lot of showers, sez I, optomistically.
By the time it is cold enough for snow, the precipitation as moved on.That's the impression I get.
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Still no snow in Jordanstown, just spits and spots of rain.
This is really patheitic to be honest. Anyone who can remember back to 62/63,or 68/69, 78/79, 81/82 for that matter, will realise that this current cold spell is tame, tame I tell you. 1 brief spell of snow Sunday week back, which was largely gone by Monday. Hardly a classic winter in my books. Really just average. We had better snow events in the early noughties to be honest (2000/01 and 2001/02) and around Christmas time as well.
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Getting some light snow here in antrim.
Getting light rain here in Jordanstown and a tempt of just over plus 4. Can't see any snow over the next 24 hrs here, despite what RTE, UTV, and the BBC are claiming. Our best hope is for snow showers later in the week, when it does seem certain to turn a lot colder. Being near the East coast and in the lee of Knockagh, it's not beyond the bounds of possibilty, although this latest cold blast does look increasingly to be just cold and dry.
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what! were are you getting snow from conditions here are quite mild around 2.8c but still got snow laods on mountain not melting either up there but wet snow? its just drizzling here and it only shows snow in scotland and rain elsewhere.... but we had snow on saturday morning but once it hit saturday afternoon it was rain when do showers turn back to snow anyway???? hoping for another -7c night would be good to get that again loved that!
Well, the snow's all gone here in Jordanstown Co. Antrim (even over Knockagh). The BBC forcasted snow on Christmas day.....but instead it just kept on raining. Rained again yesterday (not even sleaty rain). Both RTE and BBC are predicting much colder weather again later in the week but I'll believe it when I see it. Weather online are saying it's going to become milder generally by the end of next weekend.
Still, Jean Byrne's silver dress on Christmas day was the highlight on the weather front here over Christmas, in my opinion. Very sexy !
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Peter Henderson is from Northern Ireland where 1998/99 had a fair few snow events
Yes, I remember it quite well as I was very ill at the time.
Another unusual winter was 72/73. Virtually all of it was very mild with southwesterlies predominating. At the end of January/ beginning of February 1973 we had a very cold plunge of air on Northwesterly winds and a lot of very heavy snow from Monday 29th January until Thursday 1st February. Friday saw the start of the thaw. Strangely, no-one else seems to remember this event
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Well for me it has been the winter that finally put nature back on track with bulbs just emerging in the last week instead of in early January as in the last 30 years with 2 very cold spells at the end of December and the begining of February with lows below -10c and several days in each spell with maxes well under 0c. All plant growth was totally stopped by these temperatures something that has not happened in the recent past and hay and silage stocks are running out in the Highland area due to a poor growing summer in 08 and less fertiliser use due to sky high prices. This in my mind guarantees that we will see a cold spring and late onset of grass growth just to add to the shortage of conserved forage and the expense of buying in replacement stocks.
I hope you mean recent winters.
From memory, nothing surpasses the winter of 62/63. In fact, most of the winters of the sixties were cold and snowy. 68/69 was another cold snowy one.. The seventies were mainly very mild apart from 78/79 (the coldest/snowiest since 62/63). The early-mid eighties were also very cold/snowy with 81/82 standing out. The late eighties and most of the nineties have been very mild with little or no snow apart from 95/96 and 98/99. The nougties continued this trend (mild snowless, and frost free winters) although we did have some snowfalls around Christmas 2000/2001 and Christmas 2001/2002. Those early noughties snow events were far better than anything we've experienced this winter.
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The winter of 2008/2009 has been a fairly average winter here in Jordanstown.
December: Cold and frosty in the early/middle part of the month. The cold spell at the end of the month (that most other parts of the UK experienced) was just cloudy here, no frost and a tempt. between plus 3 and 5 degrees for over a week, hardly exeptional and very boring/depressing weather.
January: Rather cold and showery. The odd flake of snow on a couple of occasions but it didn't lie. Some frost.
February: Cold the first 10 days with some snow in the latter part of the first week although this did not lie for that long. It was very marginal though, with some parts of NI having several inches and others having nothing at all. The rest of Feb. has been mild and frost free (fairly spring like in fact).
The one notable event of the Autumn was the cold spell at the end of October along with some snow (although it didn't settle here). Something I haven't witnessed in my lifetime and had it occured in the middle of Jan. it would have been bitterly cold.
So, all in all a fairly average winter with really very little snow but quite a lot of frost. Much colder than recent winters though, which have been exeptionally mild. Here's hoping the colder theme will continue (hopefully we'll get a good summer this year) and the seasons become more defined (i.e. dry warm summers and colder winters)
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Snow is currently belting down here in West Belfast. Must have had nearly an inch in the last 20 mins!
It was the same in the Newtownabbey area. Nearly an inch or so in the area around the Abbey Centre. Currently sunny in Jordanstown now and very pleasant indeed.
Apparently there is a possibility of more snow on Sunday/Monday with northerly winds and wintry showers on Tuesday.
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Dry here in Jordanstown at the moment and quite mild. Temperature +4.1C so absolutely no chance of snow.
They do have an early weather warning for heavy snow tomorrow evening and the BBC have heavy snow for Belfast and a tempt. of +1.0 on Sunday but I'll believe all that when I see it.
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Lucky buggers......send some up...we haven't had any snowcover this year!
Yes, nothing so far here Watcher despite the winter being colder than recent years (quite a lot more frost). The snowfall last year on the 4th January was much better even if it only lasted a day.
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Well, no snow at all in the greater Belfast area. It snowed for an hour or so around 9.30 pm yesterday evening but this quickly turned to sleet/rain. Nothing at all here this morning. Even Cave Hill in snowless.
Looks like yet another winter with no snow at all ( the UK met office is predicting milder weather next week.)
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I wonder what averages they're going to be using- 1971-2000 or 1981-2010?
Can't remember exactly but it is going to be different to the current criteria. This was in response to a viewers question asking them how they defined "normal temperatures" (or the average) and how they arrived at those figures.
Apperently these "revised" average temperatures are going to come into force in a few years time so it'll be interesting to see if they change.
Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Peter Henderson
Whatever happened to this week's "BIG FREEZE" ??????????????????????????????????????
Quite pleasant here today, tempt. 6 degrees. a slight frost this morning. Futher outlook from the met office is forcasting rain on Sunday. Hardly a "BIG FREEZE"