Peter Henderson

It's more common to get snow in these parts in March/April rather than Dec/Jan/Feb these days. I still don't think the cold winter is gone for good though. I think it's just a matter of the weather patterns/set ups. I've seen summer charts that, had they been repeated in Dec/Jan would have led to bitterly cold weather with lots of snow (last summer was a good example). It seems to me that winters nowadays are dominated by a persistant high pressure over Spain /France leading to mild South Westerlies. I still think this set-up could change again though, and the trend could be back to colder winters. I remember distinctly in the early/mid sebenties there was a spell of very mild winters (73/74 and 74/75 are two that really stick out) but eventually this trend changed with some exceptionally cold ones following (78/79 and 81/82 are just 2 examples). Over the last 10-12 years we have had a few snow events/colder than usual winter periods. In 95/96 we had snow on Christmas day (1995) here. 98/99 had a pretty cold Jan/Feb, if I remember correctly. 2000/2001 and 2001/2002 both had quite heavy snowfalls just after Christmas with 2000/2001 having another persitant cold/snowy spell from the end of Feb. well into March. Still, I did hear the BBC saying recently that the "average tempts " are going to be revised in a few years time so it will be interesting to see if anything has changed.

Not in Northern Ireland. Summers in this part of the UK are much wetter and less settled than I remember as a child. The last really good summer here was 1995. Last year was good up until the first week in June but terrible after that. Very reminiscent of 1985. The year before last wasn't bad, about average. If the mild winters are due to global warming then why aren't the summers here getting better ? The temperature in NI has never exceeded 90F. Surely if global warming was responsible for the current spate of mild winters NI would be having summers with tept.s regularly in the nineties ?

Not great in Northern Ireland.....however, we did have very heavy snow on the 4th January. Pity it wasn't cold, long enough for it to last. There was also a skiff of snow last Friday evening and a bit more frost overall (a couple of days had persistant frost all day) so a flavour of what could have been but generally disappointing. The BBC thinks winter has officially finished: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml I think I would agree with their assessment of January. It seems to be that winters now are dominated by a high pressure are ever Spain/France and as a result the season is now always perpetually mild/wet over the UK. Depressing. I still think that we are long overdue an exceptionally cold one, and not just one either. Sooner or later we are going to revert back to colder winters. When this will happen though is anybody's guess.

Here's an interesting longish range forcast from the Metoffice (14 day outlook) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/...st_alltext.html That looks very promising, especially for Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Northern England. It'll be interesting to see if it's a prolonged cold spell (rather than one day) and what transpires over the next few days.

It certainly looks that way Paul. Take a look at the charts on this great site: http://www.ukweather.freeserve.co.uk/nwp.htm Here's Feb. 2nd: http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn3841.png http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn3842.png That actually looks quite promising but, it's over two weeks in the future and it does keep changing every six hours or so. The other depressing thing is that the mild air has pushed well into central/northern/eastern Europe now as well. It's very mild over Austria, Germany, and Scandanavia for example so even if things do change it'll take a while before it can become really cold. Here's the charts for five days ahead: http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1202.png It looks depressingly mild/wet and windy

Perhaps the term is somewhat misleading Paul but winters definitely do seem to have changed over the last decade and a half or so. When I was young (in the 60/70's) a winter without any snow at all was very unusual. Apart from a couple mild ones in the mid seventies a snowless winter was a rare event. Now we are lucky to get any frost let alone snow in a winter. A far cry from when I was young when you would have day after day of frost that persited right through the day. The hullabaloo over the current 48 hr. slightly cold spell on other threads just shows how mild winters have become. Whether this is due to global warming or merely changing weather paterns remains to be seen. I have seen weather charts in the summer that had they been repeated in the middle of Jan./Feb. we would have had betterly cold weather with large snowfalls. Don't forget though, that continental air is warm in the summer so the air that brings us those long hot thundery days in June/July/August is the same that will one day bring a cold/snowy winter. One thing is sure though. We are long overdue a vey cold winter and not just one. We are due a run of them especially in light of the sucsession of very mild winters recently. The British weather has a habit of evening itself out.....eventually. Just when this will happen is anyones guess !

As one of my ex work colleagues used to say "One never knows, does one" The two winters I've quoted did have snow at the end of the season though. On Mon. 29th of Jan 1973 a low pressure system tracked just to the North of Scotland. This dragged in very cold North Westerly winds which originated in polar regions. NI had frequent heavy/prolonged snow showers for 4 days (the heaviest snow since Jan/Feb. 1969) with at least 6-9 inches of lying snow (and more) in most regions of the province. All of December and most of January (apart from the last few days) was mild Southwesterlies. Feb. that year was also mostly mild. 1993/94 was the same although the cold air came from the East this time. A very mild Dec./Jan. but with a prolonged cold spell (several weeks) accompanied by some heavy snow at the end of Jan./start of Feb. Another winter that was similar was 1977/78 (snow unexpectedly at the start of Feb.) so you can never tell at this stage. I'm not optimistic though, and it would appear this one is turning out to be another winter that is depressingly mild and wet. Still, looking on the bright side, at least my central heating isn't on as much as it might be which is a good thing considering the price of oil at present (over £400 for 1,000 litres )

This winter is turning out to be another very mild snowless one yet again. Not quite as mild as last year (we've had a few more frosts so far) but fairly warm nonetheless. Even last week frost here was non-existent. So far, not even a flake of snow. The main difference, as I see it, from last year is that central and eastern Europe are very cold at the moment so a subtle change in the weather pattern could bring in some very cold air very quickly. However, judging by all the long range charts: http://www.ukweather.freeserve.co.uk/nwp.htm the BBC's monthly outlook: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml This would appear to be highly unlikely. Still, anything can happen with the British weather. The winter of 1946/1947 didn't really get going until the last week in January 1947: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...ter1946-47.html and even in my lifetime I've witnessed mainly mild winters with snow only ocurring at the end of January/February (1972/1973 was one example, 1993/1994 another). I continually live in hope then, although I'm not optimistic.

Northern Ireland was the warmest place in the UK today with a max. of 14C. Very pleasant, but strange for this time of the year. I think my original prediction of around 5 was somewhat low. I reckon definitely 6 plus now, with 6.4 or higher looking very realistic. How will this affect the winter CET by the way ? Does this make it the mildest on record ? It certainly is going to be in the top ten by my reckoning, and from memory, a lot warmer than 74/75.

I reckon it will be somewhere about 5 or slightly above. Next week looks fairly mild although not exceptionly so (except Thurs) and there seems to be a hint that colder weather will return at the end of the month. If it does then I'll go for around 4.8. If it doesn't materialize then maybe 5.2 might be more realistic. (if I'm right I'll do the lottery that week !)

Temperature in Jordanstown is a balmy +5.0C at the moment, compared to -1.6 at the same time last night. Can't see any snow here. We had a skiff on Mon. evening, with some places about a mile or so away (Mosley) getting about a Cm or so. The local forcast is predicting snow for Fermanagh/Tyrone with rain/sleet elsewhere. Some of the locals are getting carried away, and preparing for the worst !

I agree. As Meatloaf once said (or sang) "you took the words right out of my mouth" . We did have 2 more nights of frost to add to the 3 we've had so far this winter but that was about it. Cant see anything cold happening before late Feb. at the earliest. In winters like this we often get the snow in March/April (1974/1975 was a prime example) due to the lower sea tempts. It's now turned much milder here with persistant spells of drizzle. Very depressing weather, in my opinion : http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn3841.png http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn3842.png

Given the recent weather conditions (i.e. the last month or so) I'm actually surprised there's any snow at all in the Scottish ski resorts. Still, judging from the photos there seems to be enough for at least some skiing. Anyway, here's the synoptic chart for Hogmanay: http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif I'm not sure if this set-up will give any additional snowfall, but it looks pretty mild, wet , and windy to me and, I'd guess from looking at that chart, some thawing of lying snow as well. Hardly ideal skiing weather.

OK folks, I know this is meant to be fantasy but here's a real situation you can all fantasise about. The start of the "big one" 44 years ago: http://www.mtullett.plus.com/1962-63/26Dec-1962.htm and here's the synoptic chart: http://www.mikett.plus.com/winter-62-63-ma...ember/26dec.jpg This is the stuff of weather dreams !

In NI we had a hurricane last week (Gordon). I wonder if that has any significance for the seasons ahead ?

From what I've heard from the statistics so far, this March could be one of the coldest on record and certainly since 1947. As I said a while ago if these setups had occured in Dec/Jan we would have had a bitterly cold winter with persistant snow and frost. Pity it's just a little too late. I disagree that we are going to have a bad summer. The winter of 1974/75 was a very mild one but there was snow in early April. This was then followed by one of the warmest summers on record in NI with only 1968 and 1995 equalling it in terms of sunshine/warmth. 1976 was good on the mainland and not bad here but 1975 was better in NI. I think since the weather patterns in March have been so unusual it might be logical to assume that those in the rest of the Spring (April/May), and summer(June/July/August) will be as well (from memory this seems to happen !). The unusually hot/sunny summer of 1995 was followed by a colder than usual winter and a white Christmas here. Rare for these parts ! When we get Easterly winds in late spring/summer it's usually dry and warm with a risk of thunderstorms. Don't forget that Scandanavia/Russia can get fairly warm late May/early June !