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Just Below Zero

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    Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    Going through the GFS ensembles, the encouragement I take out of them is not that any are showing any particularly stella charts at T180, but that there is a degree of disagreement between then.   Maybe similar themes but enough disagreement to suggest that there are still options both being modelled and not being modelled that are still on the table.
     

    Nice history lesson TT just goes to show how difficult it is to get those real winter experiences here. Most on here enjoy the chart possibilities but atm not much doing.

    By the way TT Who is this Stella Charts who should be giving us all encouragement?:yahoo:

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    'progressing'

     

    It's been thrown around and dragged screaming and kickin'!

     

    Lets hope the GFS revamp in the coming months will make me want view it as a reliable source for when it comes to these situations.

    Lets face it.  No rescource is reliable in these instances. Not now or not even the next generation of super computers.

    Upto 5 days we may expect to go from say 79.1% accurate to maybe 80.2%. But even if it were 90% we could never rely on it.

    This is the sheer beauty of temperate climate. No need to ever get hung up because there is always something different around the next corner.

    Even 30 minutes out on radar things change daramatically!

    That said someone somewhere in the BI will be very happy with their cotton wool landscape this week.  And for those doubters there is less than 5 months to go before the nights start drawing in for the next round on the NW forum.

     

     

    God that red wine was good tonight!!!

    • Like 8
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    Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Great model watching at the moment, so many imponderables.  No wonder the Met have been talking up Shannon Entropy.

    It all makes for great discussion on the forum.

    Now for those of us who find the Mets meaning of Shannon Entropy technical I have a set of imponderables to define it for myself. They are........

     

    Will the Pacific ridge stay amplified.

    Will the Azores HP amplify further to keep the US cold over their side.

    Will the LP area go under the block.

    Will the Scandi High retrogress inyo the vacuum left by the LP, it usually does.

    Will temps be low enough for the "white" stuff.

    Will the JMA become the new model god for the Met and Netweather followers to pray to.

    Will FROSTY turn MELTY.

     

    Stay tooned for the 12zs

    • Like 15

    Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Having seen the latest models and I still see little evidence of HLB as was considered by by the strat boil in consequence from other years when we had HLB without strat warming. Do we need to think that there is a another major player at work in the atmosphere. When you trawl through some of the archives many cold winters were seeminglly domnated by low pressure systems that were considerably much further south of where they are in todays scenarios. They therefore seemed to feed into HLB at a higher latitude making it easier to advect cold into more southerly areas. It may be a load of twaddle but seems to me that for instance channel lows swept across the atlantic at the same latitude and did not rely on having to slide for an effect.

    Just a thought! any takers?

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Absolutely amazing. You have to think if we can get to this time this week and have a decent strong block to our north east with the atlantic on it's last legs I think we would be in with a great chance of a great cold spell.

    Also the strengths and frailties of the gfs will be fully exposed. Can't predict a slider low at T92 but can pull out a block to the north west from T300. You can only laugh at that blum.gif

    Someone said this afternoon that GFS cant detect sliders. The 18z has them coming along like buses. We are waiting at the next stophi.gif

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Just Below Zero

    Well. we're finally well and truly in the cold spell...seems an eternity since it was first appearing on the models radar!

    What a rollercoaster it's been. Some highs and lows all the way through. At this moment in time it's probably more of a low, for two reasons.

    1/ The potential for snow has declined in the short-term... high points were seeing charts from a few days ago which looked like delivering upto a foot of snow! Now it's more like dustings before it dries up

    2/ The cold spell itself looks like it will struggle to make it through next weekend, whereas some model runs delivered the hope it would run into february!

    Of course not all models are seeing things this way....and as things overall seem to have downgraded, there's every chance upgrades are just around the corner. I think we did have GFS and ECM in step for a couple of hours just three days ago delivering quite superb charts. But things seemed to change with every run, like we were told would happen with the SSW.

    So a new working week is almost upon us. I wouldn't be surprised tomorrow to wake up and find that GFS and ECM have delivered substantial upgrades and put us on a high yesterday....but I must say, through all this, it's been hard to fault the steady cautious approach undertaken by Ian Ferguson and his colleagues.

    Have to agree with that.!

    They been trying to pin the tail on a donkey and generally got some where near its hindquarters whereas some models have been a bit ass.blum.gif

    pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey-4.gif

    Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Could I have an update (simple) on the GFS.When I went to bed this morning people were fretting about it holding onto its lonely stance and possibly being correct,having just got to work whats the latest and is there a model etc due out soon?

    It has changed but now finds it even more of a distance away than it was before.

    Someone said this morning that GFS was like an elephant walking around in a chaotic Met Office in Exeter. But its alright now they found out it was only Dumbo!

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Was it not the GFS model that picked up on the cold signal first, nearly 14 days ago?

    If I remember rightly it predicted a cold outbreak from the E/NE around the 8th Feb?

    And that date still stands by the looks of it...

    You have to give the model credit really. OK it's been like a rollercoaster since, but all of the models have.

    If the pattern verifies (which is looking increasingly likely) then there has to be a big tip of the hat to the GFS in my opinion.

    14 days? Thats 56 model runs all totally different.

    Well if there were enough monkeys........

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Just Below Zero

    OMG +168 is frankly stunning.

    ECM1-168.GIF?01-0

    Sit back, have a cup of tea and enjoy +192/+216.

    I like you earlier said to myself I wasnt going to look past T144, but its a little like eating chocolate hobnobs you just cant help looking at another chart....and another....and another

    ECM1-192.GIF?01-0

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