weathernewbie
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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:
Some very good and thoughtful posts in here this morning. Also some of the other kind as well but everyone is entitled to their viewpoint.
I take the period beyond 15 days from others who have a better grasp of the meteorology post day 15 and much further.
To simply state the next 10-15 days has no indication, to me, using all I can get hold of, to suggest anything much different than that the upper ridge centre of gravity will end up somewhere SE/ESE of the UK. Thus the probability of 'deep' cold as opposed to surface cold is about nil. How cold the nights get is dependent on cloud cover and that is notoriously difficult to predict more than 12-24 hours ahead. Watching the visual satellite input and checking the 925 mb predicted wind pattern, along with the predicted skew-t's is as good a guide as any.
The NAEFS 500mb anomaly charts, and others, that go that far out, have some suggestion of the 500mb heights re adjusting to a position more favourable to deeper cold than out to day 15. To me, simple soul that I am, the 500mb anomaly charts I use, will need to be showing similar out to 14 days by about day 6 IF the NAEFS and other longer term outlook is to verify, or even show a position of the upper ridge in a more favourable position for genuine deep cold.
But as several others have commented the overall northern hemisphere upper air is a very different kettle of fish (if I may use that term?), than this time last year. Pretty much most LRF professional outputs, and the more thoughtful amateur, suggest colder than average for the first half of winter. So enjoy the ups and downs of each model run if that floats your boat but son't get too downhearted when they don't show what you hope for in far out periods.
Not been here for many many years. I should really change my name as I have long since graduated
Nice to see this excellent post from Johnholmes, as always insightful. I wonder if TEITS still comes here. The up's and down's of looking at the models is something that always happens here. To echo what John says, those in the know do suggest colder than average for the first side of winter. Hold on to your hats folks -
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WeatherNewbie, your Met Office prediction is spot on. They are a joke to be honest.
Indeed, they are in my opinion useless, completely useless. Their predictions and season forecasts are wishy washy, liberal rubbish.
Why can't they just say, this Winter will most likely be colder than last year. I don't need to know the comparison to a 30 year average, or the possibility of what may happen. Utter nonsense. I just need to know if its going to be cold, or milder in their opinion.
EVEN their warnings, cautions, and be prepared rubbish alarts, are all hedge betting, and fence sitting, and healthy and safety driven nonsense!
YET everytime there has been a major weather event, they MISSED IT!
Perhaps if they issued an ALERT every day, they would never be wrong.
So here is my weather warning System.
WARNING!!!! WEATHER ALERT!!!!
WARNING!! BE PREPARED!! TAKE ACTION!! CAUTION! BE ADVISED!! ONLY TRAVEL IF NECESSEARY, OR WANT TOO!
L0CATION: SOMEWHERE IN THE UK, POSSIBLY, MAYBE, PERHAPS.
EXTREME WEATHER LIKELY, POSSIBLY, BELOW AVERAGE, AVERAGE, OR AN ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE TO HAPPEN.
IT COULD BE SNOW, RAIN, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, HAIL, ICING ROADS, EXTREME COLD, EXTREME HEAT, FOG, SMOG, MIST, MONSOON, TYPHOON, HURRICANE, TORNADO AND/OR OTHER POSSIBLE WEATHER PHENOMENON NOT YET KNOWN, OR OMITTED FROM THIS LIST.
VALID FROM NOW, UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING, WHEN SAME ALERT WILL BE ISSUED AGAIN.
:( :whistling: -
Thank goodnews the cold snap (for most) is largely coming to an end this week.
Largely speaking most places have not had anything comparable to the 60's years, and yet its been over dramatised as if the new ice age had arrived.
If the councils actually spread a bit of grit about, and people didn't drive like morons, all would be fine.
The other thing annoying me is the "met office", which has become largely impotent.
I may as well write the Met Office long range summer, autumn, and winter outlook for 2010 now.
"Summer temerpatures are expected to be near, average, or just above, or below average, with wet periods, dry periods, some sunshine, and some hot spells".
"Autumn is expected to be wetter than average, or around average, or just over average, as well as a similar thing for temperature, and wind"
"Winter is expected to be less cold than 09/10, but is likely to include some cold spells, temperatures will be average, or just below average, or maybe just above average, or even average, with spells expected of snow, sleet, rain, hail, lightening, and wind".
AND NEWSFLASH WARNING!!! IT MIGHT Snow somewhere in the UK, so be prepared! Yellow Alert! More ambiguous details to follow. :lol:
:lol: :unsure: Excellent value for Tax Payers money! Met Office can also give Astrology readings Apparantly. -
This is just another "even larger teapot", just we are getting a few extra CM's of snow here and there, and a few frosts. WOOOO not a frost. WOW!
All this talk of the cold lasting beyond next weekend, and into the future, and all the talk of the "upstream" signals are all indicative of the cold continuing, is utter NONSENSE!!! It just hedge betting.
Where were these "upstream" signals of Postivive NAO's or Negative AOW's or whatever hocus pocus methodology they are talking about on the technical discussions. When the Met Office first made their winter outlook back in November. They used language such as "mild", and "near average". Now they are changing their minds, and issuing warnings of ensuing snow flurries, and cold, like the new ice age is coming. Pffft!!!
All that has happened is that we have had: (a) some cold, (bee) some snow.
In the grand scheme of things, NOTHING IMPRESSIVE!
Personally I think the Atlantic will return with Mild SW'rlys, around next weekend, or just after.
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Well time for another moan! What a HUGE DOWNGRADE!!
Oh my, look at this! It has MILD written all over it! What a downgrade! Wow!!
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Well. Oh bugger -10 air now piling in liberally, compared to yesterdays 06z. Whats going on, aren't charts only supposed to downgrade, not upgrade.
All this cold lark, IT'S just NOT ON!
This whining thread is excellent. While im at it, my teas gone cold waiting for the charts to roll out, and the guy I sit opposite at work, is the most boring person on the planet.
I'm going to need treatment for Bi-Polar, if this chartal too'ing, and thro-ing continues.
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I think you should win an award for the gloomiest post I have ever read on NW, weathernewbie! Have some prozac!
What a fun day.
I try my best, this is the "whining" thread afterall! Good luck with the MOT!
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hoping that it does not snow as i feel the ground is to warm and is definatly to wet for anything to settle, would sooner have a cpl of dry cold days first.
That depends on how hard it snows, I have seen snow settle onto wet ground, even puddles vanished under snow. If enough falls you will be amazed how quickly the ground temps drop.
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Considering the outcomes which were on offer last week, this is hardly making me fall from my chair with excitment.
Then potential for a N'rly appears for saturday, but I wonder how much further into this week before this gets downgraded. Looks good so far, but FI! Only FI!!
The ensembles all hint at a milder longer term.. Oh well.
The outlook, potentially, a barbecue Christmas!
Thought i'd post in the correct place, as I doubt realism will be welcomed in the model discussion. And NO im not being negative, depressive or anything else, I love snow and cold. Not just hype. One cold snowy snap last year, doesnt mean we are going to see an end of the even larger teapot.
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Oh look the ecm has downgraded the easterly even more , that's exactly what i said in my earlier post today and i was insulted for it!. Told you so!
Despite all the upbeat mood in the model threads, there is no doubt a huge downgrade has taken place. This "e'rly" will be a very tame, limted affair. Wintry showers at best. Laying Snow, pfft. No chance down here.
Further ahead, the models suggest a mild wet christmas, same as every year.
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Your analysis is very negative compared to more experienced and respected members here. Given your userrname, why should I listen to your analysis rather than others? I'm not being hostile- rather, I'm wondering what you're seeing that others are missing.
Keeping this OT, some showers now affecting my region, plus the GFS 12z is showing colder 850 hPa temps up to 30-40 hours which must be a positive sign.
I have seen the word downgrade used by others, my view isn't unique or unfounded. There is no-denying a downgrade for next week. It depends on how you view it. In essence it is just the detail being resolved. Downgrade is perhaps a dirty word. I don't have the model runs from previous days, but if you compared them to what is forecast for next week based on the last few runs, you will more or less see what I was saying.
Not at all negative, I did say next week is most welcome. JUST its not as significantly cold, or brimming with snow potential as first thought. Longer term its just FI, as FI is what FI is, its not reliable. We do get an idea from it. Im getting an idea seeing the milder scenarios playing out, that, that is what we are headed for.
Regards 'newbie' in my name, well when it comes to the weather everyone is a newbie. Nobody is experienced enough to have a definitive answer
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Dear Mods, after 26 pages of this thread in which half of them containing nothing to do with the models. could we have a nice clean thread for the dissection of the current run and further runs tonight
thank you
Wow I thought this was a disuccsion forum. I can see lots of discussion. Sometimes it takes 26 pages of varying opinons, brief banter, and the occasional off-topic to get the full picture.
However if you want a brief summary, the latest two runs can be summarized in a word. Downgrade.
Essentially. The cold which was "due" to arrive from monday, with wintry showers, is being pushed back, and is less severe with seemingly each run.
The latest run has the -10 air, further away. Some snow for some, but nothing major next week, I will be amazed if we see very cold minima's.
Longer term towards the christmas timeframe, a return to a mobile atlantic looks to be on the cards. I don't see much suggesting otherwise. The Ensembles hint at this outcome too. BUT as always, it is very much FI, and certainly next week is very welcome, however it works out.
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Meto are still going for cold right up to Xmas
From Monday (21st) until Boxing Day (26th) it looks like staying cold with further wintry showers.
Well according to this its time for a BBQ, by Boxing day. Time for a reality check.
It just demonstrates that its far too early to be looking that far ahead, but the progression to a mildish wet, mobile atlantic as we saw during November is completly plausible. It even has Ensemble support. To have a month long cold/coldish snap as was being shown, through the whole of December doesn't seem sensible or at all possible.
Even next weeks cold snap is looking more weak, per each evolving run. A few wintry showers, some frosts, that will suit me fine, to expect bitterly cold conditions and snow potential galore is very far fetched, and unfounded according to the downgrades in the recent few model outputs.
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Another set of good runs this morning. There is still a large amount of variation at T72. We can now confidently say it will turn cold or very cold, but where the snow falls is still very much up for debate in the medium term. The ECM is fanatastic in the long run and looks like a further pressure rise to the NE could establish itself - a reload after a reload! My only concern the with that run is whether or not enough cold air can be entrained prior to the onslaught of the northerly. The GEM is also fantastic in the long run as is the GFS (not quite as good though). In summary, a slight downgrade in the short run, but better agreement on a sustained period of cold weather IMHO. All this will change with the next set of runs, no doubt!
Yes it will turn cold, but there is no denying that next week has been downgraded significantly on this run. Although FI looks better around the Christmas period, with so much variability, its less reliable than usual.
The ensembles are interesting, so much scatter even in the near term. Overall most members looking for a milder solution towards month end. http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20091212/00/t850Bedfordshire.png
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I don’t think anybody could say with any confidence what the UKMO T144 would lead to.
As for the METO update, they are terrified of being ‘caught out’ by wintry weather so put yourself in their shoes – if there is a 20% chance of some very cold weather then that will be mentioned in the update.
The GFS is notorious on the US forums for getting key features wrong in the T96 to T144 timeframe, it may not fall into line with the ECM until tomorrow but when it does it will be swift and sudden. And I hope everyone, including those who should know a bit better after five or six years of this, will gain something from the experience.
I have been away for a while, just dropping in from time to time. I have to say, what a refreshing post, of course its nice to see the FI winter excitment which has been offer for a number of days. However what experience has shown us, is that a rather large pinch of salt, must be taken when viewing such charts. Especially the ones kindly provided from our friends across the pond (GFS).
I think I agree wholly with that you just said.
Whatever happens it is always interesting to see how things like this evolve, or don't (as the case may be). Without these polarized views on offer though, with the realists, and the rampers, this forum simply wouldn't be the same. Hugely enjoyable. And as always excellently moderated.
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One thing I don't see is a Northern movement of the Jet , Nore any South West winds .
Totally agree Chris,
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091207/00/336/hgt300.png
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091207/00/204/h850t850eu.png
Things could look alot worse.
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I'm surprised no one has mentioned the GEFS Operational Control from the 00z or today's 06z. Both show the start of the next ice age from mid month onwards. If anything today's 06z is 'colder' than the 00z
Yes, starting to look tasty, way out there in the distant future. If only.
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So, yes, the MO forecast a below average December. However, they also forecast a near or above average winter.
Now they have forecast a winter that will be below average. They have changed their forecast from above average to below average.
YES, but by the end of winter, they will have changed their forecast accordingly, they WILL be spot on! The MetOffice are brilliant! Great value of return for taxpayers money!
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Is there something wrong with the snow risk chart...it says 50% chance for me on Christmas night!
Not at all likely in my opinion. Even the beautiful 06z doesn't provide much hope for crimbo snow.
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It's ironic that the current change to mild weather has often being called a "breakdown" recently.
I always thought a breakdown meant a sudden change from very warm weather to very cool weather.
There is harldy a change to mild weather. It is going to be milder (warmish weekend) but then back to yesterdays temperatures by tuesday if not a few degree's down, after that who knows... As a reference the ensembles seem to all agree with each other up until mon-tues...
http://212.100.247.145/ensimages/ens.20071...rtfordshire.png
http://212.100.247.145/ensimages/ens.20071...rtfordshire.png
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I think the sunshine has gone to WIB head!.
Max temp at Exeter AP today was 20C which was reached between 14.30 -16.30.
The max temp here in Peterborough was 23C and yet we still haven't been able to break into 24c so far this year which is incredible. We have reached 23C on quiet a few occasions but never 24C although we should be able to over the weekend.
What doesn't look likely is 30c being reached this weekend although a few spots may reach 28C. Considering the model output the chances of recording 30C are decreasing all the while and I wouldn't be surprised if this weekends temps happen to be the highest of the summer!. All the while the summer clock is ticking and autumn is just around the corner <_< .
Having just come back from the med, i welcomed the much cooler UK temperatures this year.
But it is rather strange that as TEITS has stated, many parts in this area have yet to break into 25C and its August now.
I suspect that will change in the next day or so, but again beyond this weekend. Not looking all that great. <_<
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On the grand scale of things I'd probably call this event mod, maybe the lower emd of severe but I think what SF was getting at is when compared to the really massive events that we've had in the past this doesn't quite match up though its very severe when you consider what we've been used ot over the last 10 or so years.
Finally after nearly 7 hours snow is finally easing back to the point where its hardly falling. It should continue to stay light now over my area but looks like staying cold tonight.
Front is further decaying on radar, still some heavier bursts but most of it now plunging into just the light category.
For the south ice is going to be a very severe problem tommorow, can't see a big thaw occuring, evn if it does the ground isn't going to have time to dry off before it re-freezes very rapidly tonight and under the snow ther eis obviously going to be the dangerous black ice still present.
Going to be very tricky to drive tonight i suspect, much care will be needed. Going to also be a very cold day, temps will rise a little during the afternoon but evn then only to 0-3C depending on your exact location and the relation of the front at the time.
Nick, i suppose its a slow news day but its quite a good thing to rmap up and its a classic talking point with the UK people!
(ps, snowfall gotten a little heavier again!)
Snow? Ice? What Snow?
Im sticking to my guns this week will be very mild and zonal.... -
Hi SB
I am talking about the downs in a line from Arundel through east to Worthing & Brighton
What are your thoughts??
It will certainly turn to rain, in the afternoon though.... even if you get snow. Id not be expecting much in the way of Snow if I lived there... Sorry.
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From WeatherAction website
Weather Action forecasts are the only Long Range forecasts which have proven skill - verified by independent academic statisticians and published in scientific peer-reviewed literature (see below).
hahahahahahahahahahahaha
The Ensembles show a cooler snap, but nothing to suggest anything thats being spoke off. The 10th does look to have a tiniest amount of potential but certainly nothing like being mentioned.
I only imagined some snow showers in the NW of Scotland, not raging blizzards.
But at least its something exciting to dream about!!!
Nice to see this excellent post from Johnholmes, as always insightful. I wonder if TEITS still comes here. The up's and down's of looking at the models is something that always happens here. To echo what John says, those in the know do suggest colder than average for the first side of winter. Hold on to your hats folks 
:( 
:whistling:
:lol: :unsure: 
Im sticking to my guns this week will be very mild and zonal.... 
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Absolutely., how many times does FI fail to materialise. We all know the amplification of any near term data model inaccuracies (at that range) can easily make it way off point, but who here doesn't gaze into the distance and raise their hopes. So glad to see you're still here posting TEITS.