jimbo36
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Posts posted by jimbo36
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Been busy in the back garden
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Pics from my back doors....mwaaaaahhhhhhh
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pathetic snow event imo, was forecast to be spectacular with heavy snow and blizzards across a large swathe of the country. we have about a cm or 2 of wet slushy mess. I always knew it was never cold enough to settle. the same thing will happen sunday, there is not enough cold uppers left, i know people say but look at the low dew points, but if your air temp and surface temps are hovering around 0 its always going to be a slushy mess.
It WAS a great snow event, just not for you, have 10 cm here and more in other parts of the country. What do you expect being on the coast?
There is a moaners and whingers thread seperate to this one, so go and moan on there because no-one here is interested in your mood
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3.5 to 4 inches so far just off Box Hill in Dorking
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its snowing and the whingers are still whinging, unbelievable
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depends if you want photos and tape measures or not, day/nightSo are we going for final whistle at 21.00 Sunday or 09.00 Monday.
Any thoughts, anyone?
Regards,
Tom.
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Gooden Morgen Everyone
Well it feels like Scandinavia out there, good luck today everyone and enjoy the next 4-5 days.
Temp -2.2c
Dewp -8.1c
Wind ESE 9mph Gusting to 17mph
Feels Like Temp is -8.2c
From the above you will see it is absolutely Freezing and the wind chill is going to hit hard today.
Morning Paul, working from home today, don't expect i'll get much done and not planning too either. -1C here at moment DP -4C, was +1.5C at 0400, so a decent drop since
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NAE charts aren't they just forecasts?, what i posted was the live NW V6 radar, will try and download a proper copyMate that's poor, check the latest NAE I can't post the charts as I'm on my mobile.
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guys i live in high wycombe what are my chances ? and i have been told the front has stalled
it hasn't stalled just moving very slowly, should be with you by lunchtime. Forward edge currently in a line from Hereford to Portsmouth, ignoring the anaprop ahead of it
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there ya go mate, as you can see, very light with just a few moderate patches and already a backedge showingMate, it's not meant to be heavy all the way only light to moderate but every flake will stick so decent accumulations. Post a chart if u can to back up your thoughts. Cheers
damn, the uk outline wouldn't copy
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intensity and longevity not looking that impressive. 5-7 cms at best over SE later today
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Emergency meeting earlier on due to the Meto update which suggests 10cm (or could be more) of snow for Croydon
The teams are in place and on shift patterns
Snow ploughs will be fitted later tonight
It's like a snow military exercise
Well that will be a first!!! Normally the local authorities and Highways Agencies are so useless, they let the country grind to a standstill, because the snow or ice has arrived at the wrong time of day
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Perturbed?, as i went outside to see the snow, i ended up disappointed and swishing my tail.Perturbed?
Who is this Anna Prop anyway, and where is the snow that the radar is showing over me?
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Must be something wrong with the V6 Radar images, showing snow over Dorking now, went outside, and nothing .
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Probably wasn't expected, as looked nothing an hour ago. Currently in a line from St Albans down to Worthing
SNIZZLE INCOMING......EVERYBODY IN !!!!!!!!
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Was -6.5C for me at 0700 when i walked the dog but i am out in the open surrounded by fields and woods, so normally similar to Charlwood
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I must admit this is early, I was expecting the BBC Graphics posts to come on here late Wednesday or even Thursday.
Expect a bumpy ride with this one SEasterners, I would urge everyone to wait until Thursday at the earliest before trying to analyse anything.
As others have said if the block is very strong this system will not even makes inroads from the West!
Pure conjecture at present
Being new to all this weather malarchy, what are my chances of seeing a tornado in amongst all this snow this Friday / Saturday.?
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Yep looking like a slight pivital movement and currently moving in a SSW direction. Might be able to put a smile on that Stephanie in Sussex's miserable face.
I'm running a course on how to read a precipitation radar tomorrow for anyone from Essex, maybe the tornado storm chasing weather god Paul Sherman may be interested
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and the new thread that only garauntees snow. GFS still looking more marginal Monday for snow, but latest FAX & NAE look better.
Guess things won't get resolved until T-2
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In very basic terms, what does it mean when the polar vortex collapses? I've seen this mentioned lots of times.
Hi Nikki,
Here is a link to a good video from Peter Gibbs that explains how stratospheric warming affects the polar vortex in laymans terms
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I wouldn't worry about models beyond T72, too much chopping and changing for anything remotely reliable as Stuart explained yesterday below. Current strat warming quite exceptional rise in a short space of time.
Models exhibiting shocking inter-run and intra run continuity, and that's just the ensemble means !
The only constants that stand out here when assessing the next 10-14 days:
- troughing signal for Europe;
- below average signal for Europe;
- general signal for +ve height anomalies to our north and NE.
Beyond that, don't bother attempting to place any value in model solutions, of any type. A good time to be able to put non-NWP assessment alongside the myriad of options here. With angular momentum increasing off the back of tropical convective waves in the Pacific, we should see the above general synoptic as the benchmark.
The real developing story for me being the impending collapse of the polar vortex. We should be looking around day 9/10 for a complete cleaving in half across the Arctic with tropospheric response a few days later. A few GFS ensembles showing this.
Still looking very likely that the second phase of cold will come out of the NE.
Strong ensemble mean and teleconnective support for a deep trough to take up residence over Europe in the meantime, and also signal for low pressure in the Atlantic. ECM op not for me.
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METO sticking with the cold and snowy theme for next week on their 1600 update, even though i read it at 1548
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I feel there will be some disappointed and slightly peturbed horses by tomorrow. These current models won't verify due to UNIB PVA not coming on board. This weekend will be cool and drizzly before the Atlantic rushes back in on Monday.
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Quote "most long range forecasts pointed towards an interesting 2nd half to January and Cold February, the point of Interest for me as has always been is the last 10 days of January and into February, which would fit in nicely with this cool down into the weekend, not so cold next week and then maybe the fun begins from the w/k of the 20th/21st January!"
LRF all based on the SSW of the Strat.
Sorry Latitude but not one mention of SSW in Paul Shermans post that i can see. The models as he says correctly point to a cooler time from this weekend, but the real interest is the 2nd half of January.
Nothing of any real interest for the coldy fans from the models just yet, but if it's a slight frost that floats your boat, then be my guest and jump up and down excitedly
London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards
in Regional
Posted
-2.7C here now
? what snow risk? didn't think there was one, might be some for western parts of SE late tmoz