[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

Just a word of caution from an old hand-don't dismiss the GFS solution, it got a similar scenario right in mid December when it was out on it's own. I'd say we'll need to wait until Sunday evening to know for sure.

If I had a pound for every time someone said we'll

Have to wait a couple of days to know for sure!

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

Fantastic ECM tonight

The GFS has further embarrassed itself, even with my amateur experience, I can see the evolution makes no sense, and the GFS is really handling the situation quite poorly.

The ECM has proven it superiotiy by recognising that in reality cold air does not get brushed aside so easily.

At first any depressions attacking the block will be sent South East. This is the logical outcome In my opinion, I dont see where the GFS is coming from.

Of course we have to wait and see which is right, but I think it is extremely unlikely the GFS will verify at this stage. as it has very little support even from its own ensembles.

GFS goes berserk in FI aswell, somehow reforming the Polar Vortex. whilst the ECM continues to a show a very weakened vortex throughout the run.

you can't say the gfs has embarrassed itself unless it either climbs on board with the ECM and ultimately verifies which means it would have originally made the wrong call or it sticks to its guns and it doesn't verify. Then you could class it as embarrassing but I doubt if it cares.lol

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

Thank the lord for that! The SW behaves itself on the ECM again, now lets hope the GFS continues its backtrack and the other models stick to their guns...

Beautiful chart once again

Your welcome

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

If the ECM backs the other models shortly I think the GFS will crawl back into its hole with its tail between its legs. A lot of (ECM) water to pass under the bridge firstly though!

Or it will stick to its guns because it may be right!

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 09/01/13> The hunt for cold ?]

the ECM is the the postman tonight and im 100% sure it will deliver!!!!! at 6.30pm!

Or it will be like the courier service my company uses and everything gets delayed. Lol

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

Still time for low to move further north hopefully, like 18th Dec 2010, moved further north than forecast, I joined in with the snow

No, it'll be south correction.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

06z out soon. Keep an eye on the period 15th to 18th jan for a snow event

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

What I would remind everyone is the words of Ian F sometime ago where he reminded us that the MET rarely look at the gfs especially after day 8, preferring instead the UKMO, ECM, MOGREPS and jma...

I assume we all hang off every nuance of the gfs runs as they come out 4 times a day and it is all freely available...

You make me laugh. When the gfs shows great charts its the leader of the pack. It's the poorest of the big three today though!

Lets hope the charts firm up on this most micro managed cold spell in history, to avoid further toy throwing & tantrums!

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

A mega stunning Ecm 00z for cold, from as early as saturday and then continuing to intensify throughout next week with snow and severe frosts for all parts of the uk, comparing the ecm 00z today with yesterday's 00z shows a massive upgrade for cold, some parts of the uk could be looking at large snowfalls next week and beyond..snowbound uk has a nice ring to it.

If ever there was an example of a perfect sustained Northerly, the Ecm 00z shows it, synoptically superb

ECM is fine though there must be a firming up by the big 3 in the next 24 hours to start thinking that a good/great cold spell is on.

I wouldn't get too excited by that northerly showing on the ECM, they never deliver!

My view hasn't changed, as per my previous posts, 15th to 18th jan could be special

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Mr BROWN............do we follow the ECM now, or the GFS, or the UKMO or..........

BFTP

Ps just to add Ian I mean this light heartedly

I think Ian is about to have a Brazilian. Lol

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

As a real novice here, I just don't understand how 6 hours can make all the difference. Last night most posters were bullish and this morning you'd think the whole think had be cancelled. Just doesn't make sense to the casual reader.

Unfortunately it's because we are a billion miles away from being able to forecast the weather more than 2 to 3 days ahead. Just watch the models change daily, sometimes beyond compare to the previous days output to see that they just can't keep up with the ever changing Synoptics.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

Certainly every time we get a possible easterly we first have to navigate a choppy sea of LPs intent and frequently successful in scuppering our chance’s, I wonder if it was this was always the case and if not why it is now.

It has always been the case. most winters in the 70's for example were snowless and mainly westerly driven. It wasn't until 1978 that the cycle changed to colder winters.

I expect you will get a different answer from other members on here but really I believe it's all down to the age of the member. For example I was born in the early 60's so I've seen a right mixed bag of winters whereas someone born in the early to mid 70's would probably have great memories of the very cold winters of the late 70's, early 80's and say we don't get winters like that anymore and the less experienced members will even mention the "even larger teapot" causing less easterlies, which of course is a big myth!

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

Off this mornings output I don't really see anything to be positive about, due to all the models looking messy. Now before some jump down my throat I'm only commenting on what this mornings models show and that is right old mixed bag, trying spotting a trend is like finding a matching pair of socks on a Monday morning.

I'm happy with the latest outputs though I never take them seriously. My forecast weeks back of snow & cold 15th to 18th jan looks rock solid.

And as for the socks, I have no problems as my wife matches them for me

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

It is tiresome but then he has a mild bias and is famous for it, just let the chap go on his merry way as I think his mild preference is as well known as Mr Murr's cold preference. He is always worth a laugh at the very least.

Well I know what you mean but there doesn't seem to be a single post from Ian B that isn't looking for mild.

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

keep trying Ian eventually you will get it right-its day 10 and as the other Ian has posted Met are simply using their expertise in assessing different models NOT like you jumping on anything that remotely suggests back to mild. I know some would like it to be mild others would like it to be cold but some objectivity from those with sufficient understanding would be useful in here!

Well said!

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

True but is that the way you think this would play out considering all that is going on to the PV currently and forecast to be kicked again? I would suggest this will not be the case.

Yet again the lesser experienced members taking each output as gospel. Crazy days ahead!

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

I've always trusted the GFS to handle the Greenland/Iceland area better than the ECM and we should continue to see the GFS outcome as the more likely until we see subsequent runs.

Perhaps a more middle ground solution for next weekend is likely with cold uppers clipping the SE, with the majority of the country under a ridge. Beyond that this is another run to fire up the jet to the NW in FI, and that has to be a major worry, Strat signals or not. We should in theory be seeing eye candy in FI or wild swings, but the GFS continues to show a lot of Northern arm energy.

Most cold weather fans are looking at trends and should be pleased with what the current outputs are showing. A bit pointless looking for a breakdown before the cold weather has even set in!

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?05-0

& theres your result... the DADDY.

Advection in the right place ( & infact if you trace back to my first comment on the 12z it was in there)

get the vertical advection & it will come- the wrong NE advection & it will go wrong-

The ECM would put us on the cusp of a memorable cold spell for the UK.

S

And this is why you shouldn't take each run as gospel. Lets hope members keep toys in pram when the next poor model is shown.

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

Correct me if I am wrong but the warming has only just started so the charts showing at the moment will look very different early next week? Surely Tuesday or Wednesday before we get an idea of where and what the cold will do.

As you say by Wednesday things firming up on the cold spell. BBC forecast will be announcing arrival of much colder weather too for the week after next 15th to 18th jan.

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

Some agreeing with Steve M, others say he's insane for making such comments.

I have to say I'm with Steve M on this. Unless someone can explain how you get an easterly or northerly from that chart on 15th

Balearic islands get snow showers though

The problem is that each run is being taken as gospel. When it looks to be going pear shaped the wind up merchants jump on it (no names mentioned) if the cap fits as they say!

Anyway 15th to 18th jan for the good stuff.

[Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13]

Models are firming up on the cold spell of weather coming, eventually cold enough for snow, though it will be 15th to 18th jan onwards for the real deal.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13]

SnowTornado slating my post just because I gave my view on the upcoming cold spell. Just because it didn't happen in December doesn't mean anything with the weather going forward.

My prediction of 15th to 18th jan have been posted previously and I choose to stick with this based on the model trending favourably.

I use other methods of course, being in my 50's adds experience as well, comparisons can be made to previous weather events so a more balanced view can be given.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13]

Models are coming into agreement with the colder weather. As I previously mentioned 15th to 18th jan for the really interesting stuff. Snow events to arrive around those dates. Still various solutions will be thrown up in the models over the coming days but this is going only one way....

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13]

Don't worry Ian, ECM will eventually fall in line with gfs.

The cold is coming......

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 30/12/12]

I've just seen Brian Gaze's comments regarding the up coming cold spell. Worded very carefully because even if we get the coldest easterly ever recorded, he will be able to argue that the UK missed the coldest temps because it was colder in Scandinavia, Poland etc.

I expect his views to change by 15th January.