Jayces

February 12

TEITS Let's hope for a less drastic option than that last one to get some of the white stuff, can't imagine many rushing here to celebrating copious amounts of the 'S' word during a nuclear winter!

On a more serious note, I'm sure there will be lots of post Winter analysis, but one thing I'm personally wondering as our changing climate has been mentioned is do the computer models get regular updates with regard to how they calculate their runs once they've been initialized?

For example, every year we measure the Atlantic SST's, and they change each year but are trending up, is that sort of data adjusted in the computer models annually or do they have a set of historical data they refer to that hasn't been changed for years?

Obviously I've no idea how they work, maybe this is a starting parameter they enter so no need to update them?

January 16

27 minutes ago, Day_9 said:

Hands up who remembers this time last week…… it was all “in the bag”…… until it wasn’t

I guess it depends on who you listened to?

I'm pretty sure none of the seasoned regulars were suggesting this, but happy to be proven wrong.

My experience over the years, especially in winter when looking for the white stuff, is anything beyond 2 -3 days is just for fun and subject to change. Even then, it's still not guaranteed, but less likely to go pear shaped at that range.

My advice, if there is another chase starting up, enjoy the chase and what could be but don't take anything as the most likely outcome until it's under 48 hours, you're less likely to be disappointed then.

January 10

11 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

@Tamara (and Met4)..

Would you think that the Met office/ BBC should send out a red alert for the upcoming?

(Or possibly not in the BBC's case as would they even understand it?)

I must say I am learning more and more from you on these connections with the Tropics. It gives a longer term (1 week or more), that we can view the atmospheric characteristics, and have a good chance of being correct.

Like Met4 , and although I am no expert yet, I really find your analysis interesting.

Lets hope that you are correct. Despite my 80 years of age I am happy (for the first time really) that despite the advancements in computer technology we are making real progress in being able to forecast for everybody - even in today's chaotic worlds.

I have nothing against computers - I spent a whole career working with them - but unless you are absolutely spot on with your assumptions - they can be a long way out. Currently most of your assumptions are not handled by the large beasts at all, because there is no way that they can mathematically be programmed (just yet!). But I am sure it will come now.

With many thanks ..

MIA

Red alerts are reserved for extreme scenarios for when confidence is very very high and impact government action, services and potentially cost money so they won't ever (that I've seen) be issued more than a day in a advance if that.

There isn't anything in the output currently that I've seen that meets that criteria.

January 7

17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Interestingly the UKMO warning is for 4 am to 10 am and that’s before the coldest 850s arrive .

At that point it will be a case of seeing how much convection can happen without the help of the convergence zone .

Certainly I think it’s best to keep expectations low and then just see what happens .

Too late for that, everywhere's already sold out of sledges and snow shovels

January 5

12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

And it’s gone

high sinking mild sector incoming

at others have said let’s check this against its ensembles, but we can’t hide from the fact the GFS op and its ensembles are drops g the Greenland high.

I've been following dramas on here since 2006 and trust me we certainly can hide from that 'fact' as it's 10 days away and like many on here have seen things go wrong at 24 hours so I wouldn't get too concerned at changes at that timeframe as no doubt it will change again in 6 hours time.

My advice, if you don't want an emotional roller coaster is take anything beyond 48 - 72 hours with a large pinch of salt as small details will change in that time frame that can (and usually do) have a big impact down the line.

I've just seen you've been here even longer than me so you must be no stranger to how often model output a week away in the winter changes for us

December 28, 2023

I see the classic annual emotional roller coaster in the hunt for cold (and snow) has returned to this thread as the output changes almost daily.

Best advice I've ever gotten on here (if you want to keep your sanity) especially for winter weather in the UK is take anything beyond 48 - 72 hours with a large pinch of salt because of it can change then it will (and seems a regular occurrence for the UK).

November 24, 2023

32 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

00z What does this tell us, something colder yes, but to be honest and not dress it up it looks a messy picture for many with wintery conditions restricted to higher ground cold rain for some with sleet mixed in, Then around the 06th,07th December a return to something of just below average or slightly above, but this is 7 days out so could change

The 6th of December is two weeks away, a lifetime in weather modelling. My years of lurking here have taught me, especially in Winter, things can (and have) changed within 24 hours so I'd take anything 2 weeks away with a huge pinch of salt.

November 1, 2023

13 minutes ago, bbtablet said:

Don't be disappointed - 1987 was truly terrifying to live through. The noise was terrific and the tiles on the roof were lifting and rattling all night as the good people of the south-east lay in their beds wondering what on earth was happening (remember few knew it was coming that time). What started as a bit of fun soon turned into a literal nightmare with terrible damage and tree destruction.

As well as damage and flooding, there will be some loss of life this time round - there always is. I pray for everyone's safety but this looks like it will be a disaster for many here and on the continent.

Don't forget the stupid teenager *raises hand* who went out at the height of the storm in the early hours of the morning to witness it first hand. Yeah it was insane, walking through a local forest, witnessing the true power of the wind, listening to trees toppling and being in awe until a branch hit me on the head (I was okay luckily) knocking some sense into me that I really shouldn't be there!

A very memorable night but yes as much as I love severe weather I'd rather have everyone safe and hope people are sensible, heed warnings and take care tomorrow.

December 2, 2022

28 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What drama !....

.......and so now it becomes very complicated.

Can't help thinking I read a variation of this every year from you Nick when something promising on the wintery front shows up. There's always a shortwave here or shift in a different direction there!

I'm looking forward to a surprise post along the lines of oh that all went really smoothly, enjoy the snow all

Still early days, winter has just started and no need for folks to throw on the towel just yet, the building blocks seem to be falling in place for an early taste of wintery weather for some.

September 28, 2022

1 hour ago, karyo said:

Impressive that it strengthened so much in just 4 hours!

I think though that cat 5 is unlikely unless he stalls over water for a time before making landfall.

An hour later and he's on the cusp of CAT 5...

July 14, 2022

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

All these comments on gfs 12z!!what about the ukmo!!!!

Toasty.

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Météociel propose le modèle UKMO jusqu'à 168h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures

July 14, 2022

20 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

NetWx MR 12z, breaking our all time record and maybe 40C on both Monday and Tuesday.

Kind of surreal that the UK temp record may be broken on Monday and that record broken the very next day.

July 12, 2022

3 minutes ago, NTC said:

Technically 30 June model said exactly two weeks, now on 12 July it is saying 6/7 days so next Monday or Tuesday, by that comparison the plume won't reach UK until Thursday or Friday next week and then it will probably be delayed another one day.

I thought that's what I said, apologies if not. To be clear as things come into the reliable any changes in time frame reduces as far as delays are concerned because we have more info to make more accurate forecasts.

As for further delays to this event, the Met Offie have just updated their heat warning to include Monday now so I'm going to have to defer to what they're are seeing on their models and human experts input as to whether this will be delayed to the end of next week, somehow I think not but I guess we'll know this time next week.

Whatever happens, everyone needs to be careful and look after themselves and others as evena week of plus 30 temps will not be nice.

July 12, 2022

10 minutes ago, NTC said:

On page 32 we were told it was going to be Thu 14 July now its Tuesday 19th July at this rate it will be September and still this plume will be a week away.

These are forecasts based on highly advanced computer models doing their best to produce possible outcomes of a very complex global weather and climate system which in turn is impacted by a multitude of other factors. They aren't guaranteed predictions. The fact that two weeks before the potential event this was forecast is a credit to the science behind the computer models.

That forecast was on the 30th for the 14th (two weeks later), now it's on the 12th for the 17th / 18th (5/6 days time). It is getting refined as it comes into the reliable window, that's weather for you.

Extreme weather events are hard to forecast and we should be grateful that hints of this upcoming event were known about two weeks ago as it has allowed at least some sort of preperation for different agencies.

Personally I am fascinated by the prospect of 40 degrees (if not this time, some time soon in the future no doubt) but also terrified at the same time of what this means for the future. I (and many I am sure) prefer maybe 20 - 25 as a comfortable temp so not enjoying the last couple of days and not looking forward to next week either really.

July 7, 2022

27 minutes ago, Paul said:

Looking again at the ECM ensembles - it's a pretty incredible spread of outcomes for later next week. Could be 38c, could be 19c - and 48 other options in between!

Is that an error your end where it says May at the bottom of the graph or am I reading it wrong?

June 29, 2022

56 minutes ago, Alderc said:

But unfortunately a massive outlier in a completely unremarkable set of ensembles

Isn't that how the models work though, they all do different computations and produce a plausible run and sometimes the odd one out is the right one where over following runs others join in? Likely not that exact scenario but I've always understood that every run has the potential to be the right one. After all, even though they are just computer models, they have been programmed to follow the psychics of weather.

February 17, 2022

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

??? It updates in a few hours?

I remember when it only updated twice a day

February 17, 2022

21 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

And with that shift North, Cornwall avoids the biggest pinkish areas.

I'm pretty sure the big pink area out to sea is thus due to it being flat so nothing to moderate the wind. As a rule coasts will always have the strongest gusts but inland they will be reduced by topography and buildings etc. So regardless of movement there will always be less pink overland. At least that's my take on it, I could be wrong of course.

February 17, 2022

6 minutes ago, Porto said:

The Met switching to a watch + warning system might not be a terrible idea. A Red Watch over most of S England would make sense to fill in the gap between the Red Warning and Amber Warning when confidence isnt super high.

All waiting on those 18z runs now, despite my years of model watching I never remember the times they come out

10 PM I believe for the GFS anyway.

February 17, 2022

23 minutes ago, Cassivellaunus said:

Think met office have called this wrong, think all of south and south West and east should be red. If they change to red later tonight or tomorrow morning they have left it way to late. Even if we're talking 80mph gusts which is likely going to be a lower estimate. This is going to bring down many trees and debris on the roads and turn over lorries and vans. I can see many fatalities under trees on the roads and people should have been warned to stay in. So many people dismissing this as an average storm I feel sorry for all those working on roads tomorrow I would refuse to work if I was a driver. Hope I'm wrong

Comms always seems to be an issue in so many aspects of life. In this particular case I think from the Meto's point of view, their thinking is (and in speculating here) that they've given a very large amber warning, only one away from red and the associated text guidance is very clear what this means so people should heed this and take appropriate precautions.

Clearly some institutions are doing this, others not so much.

The thinking from the Meto beyond that is I imagine if things develop enough to warrant a red warning then they will give it. They don't want to water down the severity of this by giving it to early when it's not warranted, otherwise people will just ignore them.

I guess the Comms issue is the wider general public and expecting them to have noted the amber warning and therefore be monitoring for a potential red, most other than us enthusiasts here won't be doing that.

As others have said, that are stuck in a difficult place I think.

February 17, 2022

Just now, matty40s said:

This post aged well....

Was probbaly looking at local, made the same mistake on my phone, no red showing for SW but then looking at all of the UK it appears.

February 17, 2022

2 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Personally, I'm not quite sure if this is a full on red now. Yesterday with with 90-100 mph gusts shown coming into the SW/S Wales on some models yes, but today it's more like gusts into the 80s near the coasts on the GFS/ECM, and 70s inland.

Current charts are slightly weaker than some seen yesterday on the approach into the SW (including some UKV charts I saw posted with 100mph gusts just offshore)... as pointed out wind force increases exponentially with speed, so 10mph does make a difference.

I imagine there are some deep discussions going on at the METO around this. It's been a tough couple of years for everyone and the country doesn't need more disruption if it's not warranted. I would hope there are no political drivers to the warnings but I imagine anyone in a red area would be advised not to travel unless absolutely neccesary which impacts people going to work.

Hopefully sensible heads prevail and I imagine the METO will push for a red warning if it's warranted.

February 17, 2022

20 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I really don't understand the motivation to desperately find and declare "downgrades"? This is looking like a dangerous event, and if anything it has been underplayed by the media and the Met Office in recent days.

This has not downgraded, and there will be widespread damage tomorrow.

I love this community and thoroughly enjoy the emotional roller coaster that are the winter model thread but that last line is what everyone should be concentrating on at this time. This is looking very likely to be a very dangerous storm for many people. For the rest of us it will be much windier than normal and I think we should all enjoy that aspect of it and be grateful if we don't get the full force becasue as others have rightly said lives are at risk and that applies even to the areas that don't get the full force.

As much as I enjoy the severe weather there is a point where it can be too severe to enjoy and I'm thinking potential100 MPH winds is one of those times.

Hopefully the weekend news for us won't be too sad with lives lost but lets not forget we are just the first landmass this storm is going to hit, after us it will cut a swathe through Europe so will be in the news for a few days at least.

Stay safe everyone.

February 17, 2022

1 hour ago, Spikey M said:

Everyone is just rolling their eyes at me when I talk about this. I have to drive a 70 mile round trip tomorrow afternoon / evening (in Essex) and I'm pretty worried. My manager doesn't want to know.

If whatever you can do can be done remotely then there is no have to. It's a tough one with work, if there is a red warning then I think any company would be hard pushed to punish you for not doing the journey for fear of your own safety but if you're like me you rely on that job and can't risk losing it then it's a tough call. Maybe it can be resecheduled?

February 17, 2022

2 hours ago, cookie27 said:

Is it just me or are Metoffice really underplaying this or do they know something we don't know. I'm now in Eltham South East London and these seem at least 10mph what we can expect

I find the app updates what sometimes seems like hourly but certainly numerous times during the day so I wouldn't rely on that too much. It's shown me sunshine before when it's been raining. Gusts of 68 aren't to be sniffed at though and also living in London (like me) I'm guessing they will be moderated by the topology of many buildings.

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