[12z Model Comparisons Results]

Guys, just to make something clear (before I get myself into trouble) - the USAF aren't looking at this. I'm personally looking at it and I just happen to work for the USAF. This is all my own personal interest in the subject.

[12z Model Comparisons Results]

Well, keep up the great work TWS - impressive stuff that I plan on paying attention to daily. We go through a twice-daily initialization and verification procedure here on the UKMO global model based on both the 00Z and 12Z outputs. This is part of our daily forecast process. We then attempt to apply adjustments to TAF's - i.e. speed/slow movement of trofs/fronts; decrease/increase ceiling forecasts etc. etc.

[Ukmo Model Strength/weaknesses Documentation]

Looks great Nick, thanks. I'm looking at the link now - a bit hefty though. I'm sure we could "gleen" (if that's a word) some practical applications from it. I'm hoping to find documentation of this type that a TAF writer could translate to specific forecast reasoning:

".....during summer months, under the following flow (fill in the blanks), the model tends to warm the upper cold pocket too quickly at T+36 therefore minimizing the thunderstorm potential in that region. You should adjust model output by cooling these thermal pockets by 10 - 15 degrees and re-evaluate convective potential based on corrected upper level temperatures...."

I made that whole thingup but that's roughly what we're trying to pin down. If anyone out there has seen or developed this sort of study, I'd appreciate being pointed in that direction>

[12z Model Comparisons Results]

I've just been reading your comparison results - looks like the sort of thing I'm looking for. See my topic titled "UKMO STRENGTHS/WEAKNESSES"

Will your end result be compiled data validating specific strengths and weaknesses of the models given the same synoptic parameters?

[Ukmo Model Strength/weaknesses Documentation]

I'm looking for any sort of valid documented strengths or weaknesses associated with the UKMO global and meso models. We use the UKMO global main exclusively as our model of choice here and can't seem to find too much documentation of this nature. I'm specifically looking for practical adjustements that can be made to model output at the TAF level. Can any of you point me in the right direction?

thanks

John Hancock

SAIC Senior Training Administrator

21st Operational Weather Squadron

USAF Sembach AB, Germany