[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards]

3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

First signs starting to appear to the south.

First signs of an early evening of moderate rain. No sferics activity associated with what's moving into Dorset and West Hants.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Can't be that often that you see something like this modelled in June

Apart from most of last June.......

[Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17]

58 minutes ago, 40*C said:

What a vile gfs 12z. Already one sixth of the summer down the pan

Yep, it's a dogs dinner from Friday onwards and GEM 12z follows suit as well with low pressure locked in over the U.K. and nowhere to go. Charts reminiscent of last years absolute dull-fest in the south, which of course was the dullest on record down here

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

1 minute ago, thunderhead 2005 said:

anyone in Bournemouth confirm a storm

Typical, just got in bed and there was a loud rumble of thunder!

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

Game over bar the odd flash for everyonewest of Pompey I'm afraid. Outflow killing everything to the northern west of the main MCS.

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

1 minute ago, tomdewey said:

Is my area Wiltshire in south and west going any thunderstorm to night and I hope get hear thunder and see  in my back granden 

Seems unlikely now unless nocturnal cooling can aid the mess in the western channel.

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm now starting to pick up lightning strikes at 24 - 40 miles.

Not sure why. Nearest activity is over 60miles outside. 

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

1 minute ago, mike5900 said:

do not give up. heavy rain lyme bay

But that precip is primarily outside that axis of the main plume, nocturnal cooling could aid but radar presentation looks messy and in a decaying state.

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

The vast majority of the Sferic activity has now ceased for the cells west of Jersey. The precip here is turning messy and I'm thinking of looking for the wine opposed to the car keys. Can't see anything further west any Pompey probably Brighton. 

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Looks like this massive storm will clip kent at best. Not shore where these storms pushing north over england tonight are going to come from.

 

Just now, tomp456 said:

Nope... I think it will be East Sussex/kent.

 

In other words the usual lol 

 

Might get a good lightning show though 

Agreed, and with new cells exploding in and around Caen area now, even out over the channel. Think the fat lady is warming up for those to the west of the IOW

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

Have just read the cells in the western channel are propating more northerly, clearly good news, however that trajectory takes them outside the main axis of the plume which is clearly very bad news.

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

The mcs has split, the SE quadrant is winning and is probably still gaining benefit from the warm land mass. This will move ENE into Sussex/Kent. Outflow from the weakening western portion may aid growth of storms to its north and west. 

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

Would say an MCS is now forming over Brittany, the eastern portion looks to be propergating a tad east of NE so a line east of IOW looks good here. What's interesting is the western growth, if it splits this could head NNE towards Poole/Bmth. Personally I only see limited action west of Portland.

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

Looks like the precip image posted from netweathser was a decent depiction however the whole thing looks about 30-50miles too far west. The main storm over Brittany currently will propagate NNE to the east of the IOW. My area of Bournemouth looks to be in a nightmarish gap.....