Weather Man

Thanks man for your reply and welcome :lol: Of course your winter forecast not Jordan!! but i'll corelate it with our forecasts and draw conclusions ... Waiting for your excellent detailed forecasts Ian Brown, hopin it will be good for u, as well as us here

Hey all :lol: , Well Damien, i think this site (NWS/NCEP) u listed & IRI or their super computer software that produces that kind of models are a real freak !! or have schizophrenia !! concerning the (NWS/NCEP), just look back to before nearly 2 or 3 weeks period, it was saying the exact complete opposite!! do u see the hot spot/highly positive anomality just south to iceland?? do u remember where it was before aprox. 15 days ??it was covering the whole UK and even Spain, France, western Germany!!now look to the cold weather over Spain and southern France and Italy... after one month from now look to that LRF again and see what it says!! before 15 days or so, the Middle East and Turkey conditions were like that of Italy and Southern France now ...it is very disappointing thing to us shifting from good cold anomality to warm or even african tropics hot one!! but i don't pay much attention to it, last couple of years, i was monitering them too; they were showing agreat controversial especially IRI, to make things clear here is an example; last January -as we all remember- was extremely cold for eastern Europe and Moscow where maxima temps fall in Moscow to around -32 on 21th or 22th; well below January avg, and the coldest winter since that of 78/79 when they saw a maximas of nearly -35.. before that date of couple of months and exactly in the IRI edition belonging to late November and the one belonging to mid or late December, it was saying that neutral or alittle bit above avg for the whole area form Siberia in the east and extending even to central Europe!! What a prediction!! it is like Accuweather site when it said just aweek ago in its daily forecast, that a city in the eastern US -i think- will see in that day amix of rain and snow= sleet !!! again "What a prediction in summer!!!?"... the final thought that i have over some weather models software is that a little positive/above than avg anomality will be neutral or even less than avg !! any one support me in that?! u can have alook to the archives of these sites and see the controversial by urselves!... Finally, i still believe -despite all of this controversy- that a moderate EL Nino will develop later this fall, and the December-February period will have a weakly-moderately POSITIVE NAO index(December=moderately positive, January=slightly negative, February= slightly positive), in total like winters of 79/80 and 02/03 :lol: :lol: Anybody knows when will the Net Weather site forecasters issue their winter forecast ??

I think that u will have very cold october and gradual warming in november to be around average or less abit than average, and a very warm and wet end of december and january ...

Hi all, nice talking here, i hope the nxt year will be like 94/95 , it was above avg rainfall with cold snaps and around 40's cm of snow; was a great year.... but as i see from the sites providing LRF's that nxt winter will be moderately NAO positive (from +0.5 till 1.5 ) and with moderate EL Nino developing late this fall .... that findings will be such a great winter for us in the Middle East, Turkey, Eastren europe, and south west of Russia , but alittle bit mild in western Europe and wetter in the U.K but of course u will get northern - north eastren cold snaps sometime in the winter, ESPECIALLY late winter and early spring i think ... I wanna ask about any available LRF's of Italy, or Austria/Switzerland , Germany, if they already published or not yet ???.... Regards, Ayman

Hi all, it is better to stay that way ,, so here in the middle east we will have wet and extremely cold weather with blizzards like 49/50 or 66/67 or 79/80 or 91/92 when we saw a miximum of around -7 and snowfalls reaching more than a meter of continuous accumulations ,, but i'm sorry then for your warmth .... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119500205.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119500206.gif Regards, Ayman

Hi Dawlish, There are terrorists and violence in the Middle East as any place of the world, but now it seems to be our turn !! all of countries around the world will have or had violence in their history or future .... but the people here are very kind and friendly, but the media always concentrates on the bad things or news to bring spectators or readers for it, it is just a political issue, u know ... but here of course there is the bad people and the good people like any place of the world, ask any European who came once to the Middle East or in exact Jordan, they will tell u how kind and the hospitality we have ... We love the rain here very much !! and more imortantly Snow, even the government here issues a snowy day as aday off or holiday when the snow just start to fall ... I'm alittle busy these days of our medicine exams, but when i get free of them, i'll tell u about the Global Warming issue here in the Middle East ... Regards, Ayman

Hi Enforcer... Firstly our region surely isn't like the U.K or Westren Europe, cuz we are more to the south, and we belongs to the Eastren Mediterranian semi arid climate ..so the weather here is wet & cold in winter, and warm or even hot & dry in summer.. here we do get snow at level of 500m or 600m, but very rarely at the sea level as in the winter season 91/92, but there is no problem with that!! why?! cuz most of the major cities in Jordan are at the level of 500m or 600m and above, not like the U.K, the capital Amman for example it's elevation ranges between 850m and 1100m (area called Sweileh & Jubeiha =Northern Amman) .. And in our Jordanian cities the annual rainfall is only around 350mm-600mm !! but they fall in the winter only, i.e; between November-April, between May-October there is no Major rainfalls, hardly exceeding 20 mm in total !!! ... Welcome Ice Storm to the NW forum, there is alot of weather freaks like as

Thank u all for the warm welcome !! hoping it will not be as nxt winter Regards, Ayman

Hello all, how r u ?? i'm anew member here, i discovered this forum before 2 weeks and i liked the topics and conversations listed here ... so i want to become afriend of u, if u don't mind ?!! I'm from Middle East, Jordan... in a city called Madaba located south west of the capital Amman, and an elevation of approximately 800 meters ... The weather status here in Jordan, Syria, Israel, and Lebanon is the exact contrast of that in westren-central Europe and precisely i can say Italy, Eastren France, Germany, and Austria =all the countries in that area.. but alittle relation with the U.K region ... So for example if we have a mild weather here the exact weather will be in westren-central Europe and the places i mentioned, so it will be warm or hot.. in winters if these places have cold snowy weather, we will have extremely above average temps. and dry weather , and vice versa, r u getting that fact ?! In the next winter 06/07 Israel had predicted before a 3 weeks from now, predicted it to be within average; October will be here warm and dry, November=Average, December= Cold and wet with Snow, January= nearly avg. or above avg. slightly, February= slightly colder than avg. and wet with snow, Finally March= warm and dry .. Israel forecasting capabilites are good and many times it goes right especially in the LRFs .. So, i think nxt winter in westren Europe will be near average winter but alittle bit wetter in the U.K with a slightly positive NAO index, and i think December will be hot and dry in central Europe, warm & wet conditions in the U.K, January+February will have some cold snaps in westren Europe mainly with Snow, and March will be as u dreaming it .... I wanna mention that here in the middle east and especially in Jordan and Israel, we have an average # of Snow times yearly nearly 2 times only , but every 3-4 year we have amajor snowfalls or Blizzards; accumulation may reach 50 cm on 1000m elevation, for example in 25/2/2003 some places in Amman (the capital of Jordan) above 1100m saw 80 or 90 cm of Snow !! so i hope nxt winter will be like that of 02/03, but u will be -if that happens- extremely sad and depressed= warm & wet with much less Snow ... Sorry for writing long !! any thoughts to share ...