john w
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Posts posted by john w
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52 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Yes, that rogue ensemble heading towards 25 850 evident again..
Incredibe really, when you think of pure statistics, at the time, that ensemble must have been several standard deviations away from the mean - yet it came off. Just goes to show - there is a one in a millionth bit of merit of posting one chart from one run, of one rougue ensemble - just for that lottery ticket winning chance of it actually coming off. However, one shall never condone it (and I hardly ever post in this thread, but keep a keen eye).
Ill certainly take the wild ones a tadge more seriously now though and its a good point raised by @Cambrian and something to clearly watch now.
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It has got extremely dark and close near me, ready to pop maybe, we shall see!
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Just notching 39 on my thermometer that is not "that" reliable before the sun hits it.
Not a cloud in the sky here, So time yet for Heathrow to notch up a little more (looking south/southeast looks clear too).
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29 in the "home office" and with a badly regulated and not to standard thermometer in the garden that is about to be not in the shade, it was sat at just over 34.
The sky where I am is blue, still, but I can see the high cloud others have talked about to my south (hants/surrey border) and southwest/west. So some is on its way. Will see what, if any, effect it has!
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3 minutes ago, Stu_London said:
Got a bit of powder snow dropping out of the sky - mainly blowing around in the wind than accumulating.
Frankly I've observed more powder going up peoples noses in a Soho pub on a Friday night.
Disappointing how it has fizzled before it got here. Keeping an eye on the stuff coming from France / Belgium now
this made me chuckle, where I am fizzle is a sorry term, storms from the south, snow from the north, north west, the "m4" snowline or the m3 stormline. Definitely some fizzling as it heads inland, to be expected. But I think there may be a few westward surprises by morning the more north of the region you are.
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The latest Fax petty much confirms the radar I think.
As I said earlier, think this will get a bit further west than perhaps thought. That is, unless, the latest radar update is true and it really has vanished the whole lot in to thin air.
If I had longer and no work tomoz I would stay up, but time calls it. enjoy what you all get (here it is windy, just had a very small bit of fine snow, but intermittant clouds and clear skies otherwise.)
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Its interesting this, more than what was predicted...and there almost seems to be a more WSW component to it that I wasn't expecting. They will of course peter out as they head west, but seem to have NE/SW aligned bands pushing WSW to SW in places.
18z meto had a convergence zone ahead of the front and the flow perhaps just slightly more wsw than ssw. London generally could do very well a bit further west than the amber zone may intimate.
Ill watch 2 more radar frames then bed it I think. But may wake up to a bit more than the "dusting" I had resigned myself to. Will know in the next 2 frames or so I reckon.
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Heavy rain with occasional sleet and the odd hail interlude thrown in here, im Bracknell. I am well resigned to seeing these events play out to the east of me in these set ups. But...i expect even here we will see a slight covering in the morning.
One has to remember the fragility and now casting of an event like this. Several years back (2010 I think) a certain channel low and last minute red warning gave our area 30 odd cms. It originally had it further east and south of us. So for those pent up on it not following expectations...please dont be surprised!
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6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:GFS 12z Christmas Day chart for today
ECM 12Z
GEM 12z
And what actually happened
If people cannot decipher the age old message to follow trends than single perturbations of individual outputs...then this post is single handedly as good as any example as why a d10 chart cannot be taken at face value...and nor can its subsequent run variation!
I regularly read this forum, but rarely post. And this one...is one of the least wordy and most effective ever...to frequent and infrequent posters!
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It is trying and failing miserably to really get going here. Dark, cloudy and now some rain. But rumbles are certainly aloft and/or distant.
The wind has really picked up and to my untrained eye of looking up at the sky and knowing which way is north...says they are moving west...possibly even a west south west
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Hefty amount fallen in bracknell from this. Very unexpected and it had just about stayed as snow all day...some drizzle/sleet this pm. Can't see where this has pepped up from!
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Just now, username home said:
we'll be back in the game before 1am. be nice if that kept going properly until i wake up at 6... pretty poor returns so far....
wokingham - rg41
There has been a decent covering in Bracknell...next postcode up rg42...a tad higher but not enough to shout about. I'd say 3-5cm. I'll take it.
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2 minutes ago, legoeeyore said:
It's been six years since I've lasted posted here - an opportune moment! Currently chucking down with snow in Reading.
Weird...very light in Bracknell. The minor differences can be amazing sometimes!
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Lol Nick. Know what you mean. Either people are not reading the synoptics or in their heads it has gone wrong. I'm still optimistic for where I am but I thought I'd do this for giggles on the train journey I am on
Waterloo..light sizzle
Clapham...nothing
Richmond...noting
Twickenham....dandruff
Feltham....patchy covering but lots of falling snow.
Ashford (doesn't call but saw station)....good covering
Staines....a poor patchy covering...no falling precip
Take from that what you will.
The setup is very hard to read though and I'm still not sure just quite how much my hometown will get
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Beginning to think the bracknell snowshield will crumble. Could do ok out of this afterall
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Could be great for east berks. But equally. We could just be on the edge of the stuff from the south and the streamers overnight. Like Tuesday....im not expecting much so it isn't seen as a bust for us. Hirlam shows us being on the edge of the heavier stuff...so will see!
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Is there a link to CNN live feed? Im struggling to find it.
The rate of intensification of Michael has been impressive to say the least.
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Well constant light to moderate snow here since about 6 or so. A good covering everywhere again. Id say 3-5 cm, depending on how sheltered the spot is.
No idea what to make of this stuff from the west, frontal, semi convective with a hint of streamer properties is about as scientific as I can get.
Going to bed.
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Well I didn't expect tt post in this thread again this season but here goes. I had a week in the mountains, payed little attention to the forecast back home, come back today to the mini beast and snow on the ground and now - more falling snow.
Interesting developments tonight.The westward progression against the almost stalled fronts coming out of an apparent circulation to the SE of the UK. I really have not had much chance to look at charts or the fax outputs to work out if its the Thames Streamer or frontal stuff from France wrapping around the circulation. Either way, seems as though there will be more of the white stuff for the region.
It will be interesting to see how the band from the East deals with the circulation in the SW and the constant bands stretching across the southwest. Two things could happen.
The westerly component ceases and the bands from the east either stall, fizzle, or merge with the existing bands. Or, the momentum of the band moving west begins to move it all on.
Really a nowcast this, time will tell.
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Well what a spell.
In good old Bracknell we didn't do too badly, I think 10cm in places. My memory o this spell will be the extent of snow I saw in London, the cold and actually the ski=resort nature to the snow - powder.
There is an irony that I think a swathe of the country that is something like west of the A22 and south of the M4, broadly speaking, has to have very specific and marginal or deep cold circumstances to expect snow. On Northeasterlies, there is too much country in the way. North westerly often the wrong side of marginal (though a north westerly meeting hot and warm in the summer is often brilliant for our patch). Easterly, streamer specific, South Easterly or southerly, by what you would call 'absurd' normally give us the battleground scenarios for the snow that we all crave. Sliders or Channel Lows, the best of those.
The synoptics and temperature profile have been perfect and this will have been a 1 in 20 year event for most (5% chance in any given year), For some 1 in 50 (60's being the last incursion). It proves extremes happen, hot and cold. It certainly does not prove that climate change is a myth (pseudo geopolitical message in there for any doubters), if it bans me so be it. There are places a little east of me that got a fair bit less than Bracknell. But, the deep cold here was akin to being on a ski lift in the alps in January at times. That is saying something.
I suppose it goes to show the great fragility and chaos that occurs on a global scale when events high up in our atmosphere take place. The irony of this being we are only just about understanding the connection it has. You can predict climate, you can predict weather with greater certainty now. But, for island nations and mountain areas, its incredible how often nowcast or T+12 is about as accurate as you get at times. So often events start from a tiny difference somewhere. Teleconnectors try to put this down to global wind anomaly, angular momentums, sunspots, lunar cycles and other technical measures I have a very limited understanding of. Such is the fragility of the system, that difference has to manifest perfectly to the solution that occurred last night for many. A low managing to punch through when the norm would be the cold winning out. The beast from the east, The ability for the high to retrogress so quickly and in some respects...allow the low through, The low moving in (and it stil seems bizarre to say it) - a northwest direction.
We shall now endure a thaw and many will see drizzle or light rain tonight. In my area, I expect the snow to be widely gone by Monday or Tuesday and while at heart I am a coldie, I tend to think by mid march, I can ditch the hat and scarf and by early April, which features by birthday, that first beer in the pub, outside, maybe in just a t-shirt can take place.
I shall very much go back to lurk status now and comment when need be. Unless winter proper makes an unlikely reprieve. I am never too sure if I should be in this thread or over the way. I feel over the way has too many people south and east of me who generally fair better, whereas here, we always seem to be chasing the same dream. That said, I am so glad the south west got the spell it got for those that seek it. For those that don't, remember extremes can happen and be prepared.
If you take April 1 2017 to March 31 2018, it has been a record breaking year globally. Hurricane Irma, the Typhoons/cyclones to hit Japan and Asia, Aussie heatwaves, California wildfires, our cold spell just now, Ex Orphelia. Who is to say 2018/9 wont do the same. Equally, who is to say it will.
Until next time.
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At feltham station and either it has missed out a lot or it has been blown away, because the snowcover here is really thin.
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6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
Expand please. Pivoting from where to where?
The general direction of travel..the low was always forecast to move northwest. It has hung around a bit longer and a tad further east on 12z gfs. But as it begins to pivot and move northwest the rainbands in the eastern channel are looking as though they are doing the same.
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Looks like the northwest pivot is now beginning to take effect.
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Those wanting a red warning...you know it doesn't actually change the amount of snow that will fall. That's down to the physical now cast this has now become. So the radar rather than any red warning is your friend/enemy.
A northwestward movement must surely be due now.
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Meteorological highlights of 2022?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Three stick out for me, round here anyway.
1. Others have pointed out, the record breaking heat. Incredible to say the least.
2. There was a very thundery period for me which culminated on the 23rd of October with the trees out my window bending almost sideways. I genuinely thought they would snap and the rain and thunder I have not seen or heard for an incredibly long time. It came out of nowhere around 4:30 and it was intense.
3. Storm Eunice. But I think the wind squalls in point 2 easily topped the "oh my" moment when compared to the more constant winds of Eunice.