snowingman
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Posts posted by snowingman
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.... never going to happen - this is way out at plus 10 days! unlikely - zonal pattern set to reestablish itself again post 7 days! one run only and we are all on happy pills -
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.. as I have said for weeks... the old atlantic zonal pattern is NOT giving up!! all this talk of easterlies and split PV - nonsense - and the latest GFS 18Z confirms it once more !! any glimmer of cold has once more been zapped ! slightly not so very mild zonal but SWesterlies all the same, mild weather - NO SNOW and NO FROST! this must be a record now for mid winter - surely the mildest 6 week spell ever!!
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... Everyone can put as much spin on this as possible - but the 00GFS is a shocker if you are looking for cold or snow, the "worst" winter for snow potential on record continues, I have never seen charts which offer NOTHING right out for 2 weeks..
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http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2010
a super article on NAO and AO and how it has affected Europe and N America this season. Incredible to see the states having almost ZERO snow cover for first week in January! have a read... its good stuff
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the 06z from the gfs shows that the Bartlett high continues to re invigorate itself in cycles. In essence this is driving very mild air up from the tropical atlantic - slamming right into the UK, and incursions from the north or brief and simply dilute the mild air to around normal for short periods - before the bartlett reforms once more.
Unfortunately (although many many on this board would like you to think otherwise) this pattern is a rigid one and is unlikely to shift for many many weeks - we are now into week 5 of this pattern - with i believe a similar period still to come. There is nothing on any models at present in in FI suggesting a change to this, so I really wish some posters would stop speculating on otherwise.
I will continue to post my thoughts based on accurate and reliable model watching over many years
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... Could this be the MILDEST mid winter spell ever?? currently averaging 9C above normal for the past 36 hours ! based on the charts - this should continue for the next 2 weeks..... The grass will be needing cut on New years day at this rate - any cold is way way up North!! some one somewhere in the NH must be experience winter - but NOT the UK!
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Merry Xmas my friends - I want to pay a personal greeting to the GFS 00z, truely uninspiring for any snow lovers - mild the whole way! merry Xmas GFS ! may your friend the 06 bring us a season of hope and a period of great festivities....
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Zonal and Swesterlies all the way on the last run, little to zero expectation of cold ! good for keeping the heating bills down but little else, I feel that this could be us now - charts almost taking us out until MID winter and ZERO hope of cold or snowy for those who like it! this could be a snowless winter for most of the country! sorry to sound down but that what I read from the charts at present
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... wind up or what.... all 94 of us have been had!! ho ho ho
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that was great!
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..........models indicating Nothing on COLD side for at least 2 weeks... any talk of cold on this board is pure finger in the air stuff..
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NO...... why....... Because when July & August have been so rubbish..." the only way is up !!!"
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... the cool off to autumn has begun...
the atlantic looks more agressive now with deeper systems forming and moving towards us (especially north) after 7 day period..
also cooling down now in far north! 0 C more prominent north of Iceland...
no significant heat at all for anyone, cooler 12noon temperatures are evident...
what a rubbish summer we've had
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..yucky all the way !!!..... perhaps slightly drier than recent runs.... no settle spell at all (unless you live in Spain!)
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... rubbish.... wet and miserable .......... its been a dreadful summer!......
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The 500mb anomaly charts, for the first time in a long time , APPEAR to be POSSIBLY suggesting a change to the pattern of the last few weeks.
Nothing dramatic at the moment, just a suggestion that the upper trough MAY combine with rising heights to our east/north east, to give a more general flow south of west. It still looks unsettled but its very early days and one I'll keep an eye on. The indications are only just showing, it needs to continue with this idea for at least a couple of days before any belief can be attached to it. These charts are showing what MAY start to happen 10+ days down the road from now.
great john... MAY APPEAR POSSIBLY mAY..... in summary not very settled or nice in the outlook! Fingers crossed your MAY happen WILL happen
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... golly... this looks more like November than middle of August charts for GFS..
If you want to get depressed just look at these
I would now say that summer is officially over if the 00z happens
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....utterly rubbish weather from the charts..... this could turn out to be a miserable August !
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.... dire outlook.. rain for most..... average temperatures....... pretty rotten.....I hear September sounds promising- perhaps someone can clarify this for me?!
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..........superlatives are required from the 18Z gfs - this is simply STUNNING! summer will arrive - and for ALL of UK .............. its a beauty!
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....awful............... no heat, not sun... just awful.... I am away back to bed!
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..00Z give up on summer after tuesday next if this happen!! no heat, no sun, just rain and wind!! right through until run ends
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Statistics for Northern Ireland
Summer month 1 - JUNE 2011
Dry days 0 /30 - Yes it has rained here every day!!
Rain days 30/30
Days with temp >20C 1/30 - 3rd June
Days with sunshine >5 hrs 1/30
Days with night temp <10C 15/30
Basing this on past 5 years - this ranks the WORST JUNE in 5 years. The GFS outlook is ok for this weekend then more of JUNE weather AFTER 5 days. Absolutely nothing in forecast for any dry or temperatures above normal.
It does annoy me continually when this forum is full of people who live south of Reading. You guys have it real good - so stop whining please.
Ireland Regional Discussions 21/03/13
in Regional
Posted
mad snoe