jethro
-
Posts
7,337 -
Joined
-
Days Won
21
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by jethro
-
-
We've been bombarded with the evidence, the data and, yes, the facts. This programme will - well lets see what it does
.Are you open minded? It seems from you last sentence clear you have made up your mind.
Dev, your words of "Grubbily titled little documentary" and "calling my views a swindle can expect their words to be slung back", do not mark you out as being even remotely open minded.
I accept the world has been given the evidence, the data and yes the facts, will you accept there is in all likelihood, more evidence, data and facts to be discovered and heard?
My stance is and always has been that yes, I believe the climate is changing, yes I believe we probably have made some impact but what I do not believe, is that we are solely responsible.
I have researched and read opposing views from both sides, both scientific papers and popular media. I have learned enough to be able to read say for instance "Ice Age Now" and "The Weather Makers" to understand and realise both have cherry picked their data. I wouldn't however dream of imagining I have enough knowledge to question the scientific community; I am after all merely a journo turned gardener.
But, when respected scientists raise their hands and say "hang on, what about this" and question the popular wisdom, then they should be heard. This is the whole point of the programme, is it not?
In order to pursue openness there has to be equal opportunity given to both sides, it was you, not I condemning the unheard voice.
-
As an aside but vaguely connected, I used to get quite a lot of lower back pain, made worse by heavy work and digging (I'm a gardener by trade), the most effective thing I've ever found to alieviate it, other than taking pain killers all the time, are magnets. I've got a couple of velcro backed pads which contain magnets, they slip inside your clothes over the tender spot and strangely enough, they really work for me. I'd recommend them to anyone who would rather not take pain killers regularly.
-
I think that grubbily titled little documentary will need a dedicated thread. But, be warned, I'm in a fighting mood People calling my views a swindle can expect their words to be slung back
Don't really think there's any need for such a combative tone. As far as I am aware, this is the first program giving the other side of the story to be shown on TV. For goodness knows how long now, we've been bombarded wholesale with the pro AGW story. I for one, welcome the program, and if the only thing it achieves is to make people aware that AGW is not the cut and dried story we are led to believe, then that will do for me.
Don't like the sound of that program towards the end where its gonna get onto ethics, but the beginging sounds intresting.I'm looking forward to Devonian v. Several Professors.
I welcome the ethics discussion, it's about time. We in the developed world have a choice between walking or using the car, we can all cut our own personal carbon footprint and clean up our act, regardless of whether we believe in AGW or not. Cutting Global emissions will impact on some of the poorest nations on earth. If those nations are to be kept in grinding poverty with the ensuing sickness and preventable deaths allowed to continue then I for one think we have a moral duty to make damn sure the science behind those policies is absolutely correct.
-
It's interesting that the vicar was so happy to go with the ley line theory - I'm wondering how he squared that with the Christian worldview?
:)P
-
Ley lines & the like might be an example of people observing patterns (or perceiving that they may exist) in the world around them and trying to find an explanation which fits. This raises some questions; are the patterns really there, or are they accidents which we have picked up on? If there are such patterns, is there a social, geological or topological explanation which can explain them? If there are patterns and there is no clear explanation for them in the obvious, what alternative explanations are credible or reasonable?
Agreed P3 to a certain extent. The problems/events I described were very much real, not perceived; it wasn't a frame of mind or that any of us were inclined to believe in unexplained phenomena, not a dippy hippy thing. It happened. The Ley line theory proposed by the Vicar was one of many ideas mooted by numerous people, all of which were considered but all could be applied to any house/site/person/time, only the Ley Line theory tied the phenomena to the problem to that house, that time and everyone who spent any time there. As we'd never experienced anything like this before, it seemed the most likely, however implausible explaination if one were to be found. Absolutely, we were seeking an answer, it was a dream house. Do you or anyone else have any other ideas why we experienced the problems we did? Incidentally, the same appliances when moved to our current house have had no problems since. I'm open to any ideas. Ditto the watch problem, why do they stop when I wear them? Analogue, digital, battery and wind up all do the same, always have. Any clues?
-
At the risk of sounding like a complete loon, I truely believe there is something in the theory, quite how or why it works is another matter. I read The Old Straight Track years ago when it was first published, my interest in energy paths, particularly magnectics was prompted by my strange quirk of breaking watches; ever since I can remember, wrist watches, whatever type always, always stop working within a few days of my wearing them-I gave up trying to find one which didn't years ago.
Anyway, ley lines etc. About ten years ago me and my family moved from North Yorks down to Somerset, bought a beautiful Grade II 17thc cottage with about an acre of land, chocolate box perfect, we were in heaven. We're all outdoorsie, hale and hearty types yet within a few weeks we all began to suffer from a complete lack of energy, blinding headaches, aching, swollen joints, skin conditions, stomach bugs; a long list of ailments. Friends and family who came, would within a few hours be complaining of the same things-providing they hadn't already fallen asleep. We had the new boiler checked thinking it might be carbon monoxide, the entire brand new heating system taken apart and checked. We had a Radon survey-the area is known to have high levels. Everything we could think of, we had checked by experts and it turned up nothing. Then the real fun began. Light bulbs would blow within days, never lasting more than a month. Appliances just stopped working, even though they were all new with the move as our last ones had been fitting. The electric board checked the system even though it had been completely re-wired a couple of years previously, they checked for power spikes&surges-nothing. A long list of personal losses followed on from this, until it reached the point that I truely thought either we or the house was jinxed or going mad, or both. Being just down the road from Glastonbury I started trawling around for every alternative therapy going, spoke to many "healers" of one sort or another who instead of taking my money and solving nothing, all shook their heads and referred me elsewhere. Eventually, I was referred by a practising Wiccan in Glastonbury, to The Wells Diocese who instead of laughing or shrugging their shoulders, sent a Vicar to the house. His role within the church is to deal with this type of problem and although they don't advertise the fact, it is apparently quite common. He explained that the house sat upon a ley line, something I hadn't even thought of; in the intervening years since reading about them I had completely forgotten about them. He also added that some people are more susceptible to their influence and can magnify their intensity, me being one hence the watch problem and sometimes extensive work above and below the ground may interrupt or disturb the energy and can create the type of problems we had been having-the house had been derelict for years and had been completely renovated shortly before we moved in. His remedy was to cleanse and bless every room and person, a rite more akin to a Wican/Pagan rite than C of E. Did it work? Kind of, in as much as it lifted the burden of "are we going mad" but other than that, I'm not sure it made any difference. We sold up and moved, all the ailments and problems stopped when we moved out. As we only moved a couple of miles away it is easy to keep an ear open for who lives where and since we moved out 7 years ago, no one has stayed more than about 18 months. Since then I've heard of other very similar tales from many others who live in that village, some have given up as we did, others have stayed and apparently after a few years things settle down.
Is it all Hokum? Prior to this experience, I'd have said it was whatever anyone wanted to believe it was, now...I'd say just because you can't see it, touch it, smell it, explain it, bottle it and sell it, even though science has no theory for it, there really is something in it.
-
Thanks folks, didn't think it rang true.
-
Perhaps I misunderstand you, but I can't conceive of the amount of energy required to heat the oceans noticeably
Don't think you've misunderstood, I was asking if anyone here thought it were possible it could have a sizeable contribution to temps/Co2 or was it just some random theory which would have a negligible effect. I don't know enough to judge the theory myself and was hoping for some input from others more knowlegable. I take it from your reply you think the theory is somewhat flawed? I figured it would take something akin to an underwater Yellowstone to have an effect, possible I guess but I can't see how we would have failed to notice it thus far. Anyone have any ideas?
-
Before I start I'd just like to say I've got the mother of all colds and a sizeable dose of jet lag so please be gentle if I talk nonesense.
I am a sceptic but not in the sense of total denial, more along the lines of I think there's more at play here than just humans and I'm not convinced the science so far has taken Mother Nature into account enough.
I've read lots both AGW and anti AGW, scientific papers and popular media in order to have what I hope is informed scepticism.
One thing which stood out for me was something I read about under water volcanicity in the oceans; I think the quoted figure for completed underwater mapping of the world's ocean floor was 5%, leaving a whopping 95% as an unknown. If there are huge swathes of the ocean floor with active volcanos we know nothing about could this be the cause of the rise in sea temperatures? Surely this would also release vast quantities of Co2 into the atmosphere?
I wonder what the more knowledgeable folk on here think? Is this nonesense or could it possibly help explain the steep rise in recent years?
-
To all the good advice above can I please add a few extras....
By all means work the garden in stages as budget allows but to get the best overall cohesive flow vital for good garden design, design the garden as a whole from the very beginning rather than think about it in bits as budget allows.
As the house was built on a bog the soil should be fairly fertile but likely to be subject to poor drainage, as well as digging in manure, add plenty of grit. If this is too onerous to contemplate, then choose plants according to the soil type, there are plenty of moisture lovers.
Instead of imposing a pathway upon the garden, figure out the natural fall of footsteps; to the shed, the washing line etc and plan accordingly. With the best will in the world, no one sticks to paths if it's not leading to where they need to go and you'll just end up with muddy patches.
Any area to be cultivated is best treated with a Glyphosate weed killer first, two applications may be necessary. It is completely harmless to pets and wild life and becomes inactive as soon as it is dry. Beware though it works upon the chlorophyll in the plant cells-the stuff which makes leaves green, so it will kill anything that colour-beware of wind drift when applying.
The veg patch will be much easier to look after and more productive if it is created using raised beds, tanalised timber is fine. The beds should be no wider than you can reach to the middle of from either side. Once created and filled with soil and manure so long as you do not walk on them, they will not need digging and are far easier to shield from pests and diseases than open ground.
When it comes to using colour in planting, the most restful designs are created using a limited palette, too many colours all together rarely work outside stately home proportions. Hot colours, the reds, yellows, oranges etc will foreshorten a view, handy for a long narrow garden as they tend to make it appear wider but shorter. Pale, pastel colours will lengthen a garden and if planted toward the end will make it appear longer. Dark, shady areas are best lightened with golden variagated shrubs or yellow flowered plants, not white as they can make it appear even gloomier
If you do decide to divide the garden into separate "rooms" they shouldn't be completely cut off from the rest of the garden, allow glimpses through from one to another.
When it comes to buying plants, if you are self employed or know someone who owns a company or are a dab hand at knocking up letter heads then if buying from catalogues always ask what, if any trade discounts apply. The companies only ask for company credit checks if you are asking for credit, many ask for payment with the order anyway. You'll be amazed at the mark up that garden centres add, usually doubling, sometimes tripling the wholesale price and that makes a huge difference when you've got a whole garden to plant. To the list of suppliers can I add Parkers for bulbs, far cheaper and superior size bulbs.
Last of all, be honest with yourself about the amount of time you will have or want to spend maintaining the garden and plan accordingly; if you can't be bothered cutting a hedge or don't have time, don't plant one, the last thing a garden should be is a hassle.
Good luck!
p.s A pond will attract many pest eating animals and a wonderful array of wildlife.
p.p.s Don't forget climbers and perfume
Oh, and a plea from the heart, please, please, please be an organic gardener. It may take a season or two but if pests are left well alone, they quickly attract predators and very quickly the garden achieves it's own balance. You'll never get colonies of ladybirds if there are no greenfly for them to eat. Frogs and toads from the pond devour copious amounts of slugs or try a couple of ducks; they don't scratch and trample like chickens but wander around rooting under plants with their beaks seeking out every slug around; they might come in through the cat flap but that's another story.....
-
I thought I'd throw my two pennyth worth into the pot...
My concerns don't centre so much on whether or not AGW is real or whether it's all down to natural cycles, but more the hysteria connected with the whole issue. The climate is changing, no one can deny that; some of it caused by natural cycles, some no doubt caused by us. But, will we ever know the percentages or causes or even have a vague idea of the true picture?
In the current atmosphere of hysteria, to question AGW is to be branded a loon, a heretic worthy of a Borgia Inquisition yet only by questioning can new advances of understanding be made.
This weeks copy of New Scientist contains no fewer than three articles where concerns and doubts have been raised about important, researched, peer reviewed, scientific theories. Three, in one week. They now think a Virus is responsible for BSE and vCJD, not a protein as previously thought. Both diseases have been studied by respected scientists for some time and their previous answers were accepted as being fact. There's an article about flawed stem cell research. Another about theories on Dark Energy being re-written - AGAIN. There's also an article about Quantum Physics; a rebel scientist has won over doubters yet when he first published his theory and I quote "first proposed in 2004 unleashing a dam-burst of vitriol in the Physics community".
Science is written and re-written ad-infinitum and so it should be. So why the hysteria when the theories of AGW are questioned? I fear that in the current climate, research into Natural causes will be seriously hindered by such an attitude. Grants and funding will become harder and harder to find; if you were a science grad looking to pay off student loans and actually have a career future with a salary which would enable you to live the life you want, where would you concentrate your efforts?
I also wonder about the reaction to the USA now coming on board and accepting AGW is a problem. There appears to be a ground-swell of opinion that if they at long last accept and are willing to look into the problem, then that problem must somehow be more real or the consequences imminent. Er no, that's politics. The dirty P word which once uttered brings the inevitable onslaught of "conspiracy theory" accusations from the AGW side; a cheap shot designed purely to denounce the questioner as a loon. Princess Di was shot by the CIA/FBI/MI5 is conspiracy theory; recognising the role world leaders play in all this is not.
I believe politics plays a not insubstantial role in all this. Ask anyone which nations are the largest polluters and in an instant the answer of the USA is given. Question further and most people have no idea of the rest. The top three are USA, Australia and Norway, could it be that much less fuss is made about the two runners up because well, one belongs to us and the other is a developed, peace loving nation with a known risk factor?
The USA has an ailing economy, the current administration is finding itself increasingly alienated from world leaders and its' own populace, it needs the green vote. As a nation it is used to being in control and in my opinion that control is no longer the given it once was. China and India are developing at an ever increasing rate, but could they if the world united and blocked their coal-fired power plants? Oil, the currency of the US is being sought in other nations, don't forget it was Osama Bin Laden not Saddam Hussein who was responsible for the Twin Towers atrocity. The US brokered an oil deal with Iraq in return for ridding the country of Saddam; not conspiracy theory-admitted fact, now their eyes are turning to Iran. Yes Saddam was a war lord, but did the US or any of the rest of the world rush into say for instance Rwanda?
Our support of the USA was once a given they could depend upon, we owed them vast amounts of money from their support in WW11, last year that debt was finally repaid. Only once since WW11 have we denied them support when Harold Wilson refused to send our troops to Vietnam; the US response was to financially cripple this country which took years to recover from.
Don't believe a country would go to war over oil? Maggie Thatcher, aguably the most unsentimental Prime Minister this country has had in recent times went to war over islands thousands of miles away because a few people (comparitively speaking) wanted to remain British. The fact that we had to maintain a presence in the southern hemisphere in order to reap the benefits should Antartica be tapped for oil had nothing to do with it then?
Under-estimating the role of politics in the AGW debate is I believe fool hardy. Dismissing it as conspiracy theory is dangerously blinkered.
The climate is changing, how will we ever know how much is down to natural causes or AGW if research is blocked and hindered. How will we ever attract bright, young scientists into the field of natural causes if they are subjected to the recently suggested Nuremburg style questions and doubts?
We think we know what's going on, the scientists think they know, the IPCC believes it has it covered, I think we've scratched the tip of the Ice Berg. I worry that we will learn less and less.
-
The track has probably been about 100 miles south of what was described above, with the effect that the rain-snow transition line is through the
Inland, snowfall totals of 30 to 50 inches are likely because the storm is on a perfect track for severe over-running, at the ocean buoy offshore Long Island (at 39N 71W) it is currently 16 C with a 40 mph SE wind, so that air is being forced up over the top of the cold surface air (it is -15 C at Toronto near the northern edge of the snowfall). Can you imagine a storm like this across the UK? I can't, but I guess they happened before the last ice age set in.
-
If points 1-8 above along with the previous scare stories (all in black and white) aren't enough to convince a slim sceptic, i don't know what is.
Mondy, you're preaching to the converted or should that be the unconverted? I'm a gardener by trade and I've lost count of the conversations I've had in the last couple of years which always start along the lines of....oooo, you must notice the difference, the dafs are out early, I'm still cutting my grass and it's nearly Christmas, blah, blah, blah. When I say actually no, no difference just natural variation and explain the points you've made above and more, the general public look at me as though I've gone mad. I do believe we should all behave responsibly and look after our planet, but that's because it's a wonderful world which shouldn't be treated as a rubbish bin. I've always believed that, long before all this AGW nonsense become the huge, money grabbing fiasco that it has turned into. Politicians and the media have a lot to answer for.
-
Good God, jethro! I make that approx three of us on here who are now "outcasts"!
I'd rather be an outcast than a sheep
-
When you combine these uncertainties with the satellite data from NASA showing nothing much happening on world wide atmospheric temps and ice coverage a clear picture begins to form...of the greatest con job in the history of mankind.
I really can't add anything more so if you disagree, fine, we'll disagree
I agree whole heartedly M. A voice of reason in an ever increasingly mad world. Throw into this huge pile of enormous uncertainties, all the political ramifications and I do believe we end up with the greatest con job in the history of mankind.
-
It did snow, quite hard for a couple of hours, everything nicely white - just. Now turned to rain, what a surprise, not.
-
Wow, it's snowing here too, has been for the past hour or so, settling nicely and the sky looks full of it, hope it doesn't turn to rain. Big surprise too, don't think it was forecast for here, was it?
-
may I very respectfully nominate a "devon", a "skye" and a "PP"
if they are to to be worthy successors (if indeed one is required and the barrier to entry has not just been raised) then let them all present their case that the revered SATSIGS may vote
May I suggest a Somerset? Having lived in most parts of the country over the years, I can confirm it rarely snows here, despite any forecasts of major dumpings it invariably falls as rain. I suspect this is a long term trend as the village I live in (Holcombe) was the home of the parents of Scott - he of Antartic fame - the distinct lack of any white stuff around here was I believe the major driving force behind his expedition to at long last see what real snow looked like.
-
Raining here now
-
Started snowing here just after midnight, was still snowing heavily at half 3 when I went to bed, opened the curtains this morning full of excited anticipation and saw.....about 1cm! Now very grey and drizzly, what a let down.
-
You may catch the tail.....
Guess that's better than chasing it, which is all I've done for the last few winters around here. Seriously hoping my son gets to see proper snowfall tomorrow morning.
-
Steve, is it going to get any heavier than it is now?
-
It's been snowing steadily here for the past couple of hours but the flakes are so small we've hardly got a cm. The local forecast for here was for up to 10cm, I know there are lots of variations in local depths but being quite high up for the area I though it would be more by now. Have they seriously over-estimated or is there a much heavier bout due here sometime?
-
15 miles west of where I am theres heavy snow(my sisters house to be exact(who couldnt care less))..... i dont care what the neighbours say im building a snowman out of grass in the morning, a grassman if u will. Then im going to set him on fire using printouts of yesterdays forecast.
God, I know that feeling well!! Lol. Piccies please....
.
People calling my views a swindle can expect their words to be slung back 
'Naysayers Guide to Global Warming.
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Agreed P3.