Jack Wales
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Posts posted by Jack Wales
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Yes it's thoroughly depressing but with the northern blocking pattern seemingly locked in, coupled with a strong southerly displaced jet stream. I can't see any change until at least the end of April
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The cold outlook is starting to fall into a similar pattern to previous years with the jet pushing the high slightly eastwards and directly over the UK. The consequence being that the cold will be pushed into central and eastern Europe and down to Greece etc.
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31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Deja vu anyone? Haven't we seen quite few patterns, like this one, in recent summers?
Although we're in enso neutral territory, there is definitely a La Nina lag to the N hemisphere pattern atm with northern blocking, azores high displaced to the west and NW to SE jet flow into W Europe.
As we get towards the end of May, the summer pattern will begin to show it's hand... if so, we better lose this signal soon, unless cool and rain is your thing!
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Hi, just wandering if there's a summer forecast /discussion thread anywhere on here?
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49 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Rubbish forecast,the signs are for a colder than average winter,not mild.
Dont forget the guy that runs that website is just the same as us lot here,a weather enthusiast,he has no weather training background has never been involved in the METO or anything,lol
I don't know what his qualifications are but in fairness Brian Gaze is very knowledgeable. He's also a bit of a cold ramper so I think it's a testament to his professionalism that he's gone with a milder forecast.
I agree with a lot of it except that Feb could turn out to be colder as the qbo should be switching more negative by then which should allow some of the colder background signals to prevail.
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Hi. Apologies if this is the wrong thread but just wondering if the winter forecast has been issued yet? I can't see anything in the forecasts page.
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6.9 please
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Chelston bermuda now reporting 98mph wind and 963mb pressure.
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Eyewall now over Bermuda, it appears the eye will track just to the east...
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Not sure if there is a seperate thread for Nicole, if so please feel free to merge this in. Nicole currently looking fantastic on satellite imagery and will undoubtedly soon be upgraded to cat 3. Just hope for Bermuda that she does not make direct landfall....
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Do we have a thread for hurricane Nicole...
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37 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:
EDIT: OMG !!! The outer eyewall appears to be contracting? We are over the gulf Stream now so there's plenty of 'Oooomph' out there ?
Yes, It looks ominous now and central pressures have dropped to 935mb. Given the current satellite presentation there's scope for some slight strengthening before landfall.
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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:
Thinking about it I'm not even sure where Miami is, sounds like it is west, by this.
Miami is on the south east tip of florida
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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:
Exactly how close to Miami is Matthew going to hit? On the webcams on Miami beach their are loads of people in the sea
Miami should escape the worst of it but will still experience trop storm conditions with hurricane force gusts. Imo the biggest danger area is from West Palm Beach northwards.
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Not sure if an ewrc has taken place, I think the eye was just disrupted following some interaction with the Bahamas.
It seems to have cleared out now with the colder cloud tops wrapping back around the eye... as we can see from this stunning image of Matthew...
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Recon just recorded 936mb and 137mph flight and 123mph sfmr winds.
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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:
Yep and i believe its the first cat 3 or higher to hit Florida since 1950
I thought hurricane Andrew made landfall as a cat 5 in the late 80"s
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Nassau live weather data feed has now crashed - which is ominous for that region.
Nicolls town on Andros up to 100mph at the surface.
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Now 937mb and 135mph sfmr. Some cold cloud tops and visual presentation of Matthew improving all the time. To me it's a matter of when and not if it reaches cat 5. Let's hope it stays off-shore.
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2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
Any updates on how badly it affected the Bahamas?
Making landfall on Grand Bahama shortly. Here is the weather station at Andros Town where pressures are now steadily dropping and winds at 80mph
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Recon just recorded central pressures of 941mb. Surface level winds yet to respond to the pressure drop with max 115mph recorded so far this mission
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18 minutes ago, Iceberg said:
Hwrf takes Matthew to a hit on the carolinas.
Gfdl has a direct cat 5 hit of Miami.
I especially hope the Miami hit doesn't prevail. As a cat 5, it would floor many of the concrete buildings and displace millions.
In the meantime Cuba is next in the firing line. Baracoa should take a direct hit, here is the weather station which is worth keeping an eye on (pardon the pun)...
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Dropsonde data indicates surface level pressure of 949mb and surface winds of 123kts (141.5mph) detected. Land interaction hasn't done much to inhibit Matthew.
Cloud tops have warmed slightly but with the eye reforming expect pressures to drop once more. Not good news for the Bahamas.
General summer chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Addicks Fan 1981 Hi, the transition to Nina looks pretty much nailed on when you look at the weekly CPC outputs...