suffolkboy_

First absolutely snowless winter here in living memory to most people around here. Very unusual to not see it falling at all, not even sleet! As usual though, March looks as if it will give us a reminder that it still isn't true spring yet, at least for some. Some have been saying about the frosts. I actually saw very few, but it has still been better than winters in the past. I remember one particaular winter when I don't think we saw a frost until the end of February. Without the cold period before Christmas, this winter would have looked alot worse statistically than it does.

I still don't think a very cold spell, or even a severe cold spell is completely out of the question this winter. Unlikely, but not impossible. The winter of 1947 didn't really get going until the very end of January, and even then the brunt of it was February. Look at this brilliant site to have a look at just how awesome that winter was. http://www.winter1947.co.uk/

Around average temperatures over the first week, dropping below over the second week as we see some weak hearted Notherlies/Easterlies, not much snow though, returning to a zonal pattern for the third week with then a cold NorthWesterly later turning Northeasterly for the last week with some snow for the West at first and then the East. Cold dry and clear in central areas, with some cold nights and days just above freezing. Overall CET tending to be average as mild spells average out cold spells. Overall, just above average at 4.6C Coldest weather to come during February

Foggy, clear. Temperature:-3.4C (dropping slowly but steadily) Dewpoint:-4C Relative Humidity:96% Wind: nil Pressure:1023.5mb(falling slowly) Very frosty and increasingly foggy out there, first fog, and second decent frost I have had out of this cold spell so far!

Minimum Temp Since Midnight: -1.2C (12.54am) Maximum Temp: 3.6C (10.52am) Current temp: 3.1C Humidity 80%RH Wind: ENE 17mph Pressure 1034.4mb (falling slowly) Solar radiation only 33W/m², so not very bright at all!! 8 oktas Stratus now, compared to only 5 oktas at 8am

Clear Sky Temp: -2.2C Wind:0 Pressure 1038.7hPa (rising slowly) Humidity 94% RH Today's Precip: 0mm Dewpoint: -3C Windchill: -2.2C A hard frost already, some of it remaning from last night which did not thaw during the day. Even a little bit of rime first thing after the patchy freezing fog last night. More chance of that overnight tonight.

This is what Paul bartlett has been hinting towards on his website. He is still yet to publish his full winter forecast.

Hi, In reply to your enquiry: http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/coldest_days.htm Not a bad website for a variety of British data. Here's the homepage..... http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/britweather.htm

To be honest, the MetOffice have given a fair forecast as they can, providing that in all honesty, they dont really have a clue, but they have an idea of what is more or less likely. Detail is out of the question. This in turn gives rise to the question; is it even worth making a seasonal forecast? I bet I can guess the forecast for next summer by the MetOfiice...... Temperature This summer (2008) is expected to average or warmer than average, and is generally expected to be warmer than last summer (2007). Some hot periods are likely at times. Precipitation is likely to be around average, yet some very dry periods may occur. This summer is generally expected to be drier than last summer which was one of the wettest on record. Take my word for it! It won't be far off that when the MetOffice release their forecast in April/May

They having been upgrading from GRIB1 to GRIB2. They were supposed to be finsishing the work at 9pm, however, this is what their message has been changed to... Sorry, we're currently working on the servers... OK, an update for ya. Everything is going smoothly with regards to the upgrade from GRIB1 to GRIB2, however it has taken longer than we expected. We are now on target to be back online at 5pm (Tuesday 27th November) Sorry guys! If you need a weather fix NOW! then check out our new baby site Weather2U.com. Surely they mean 5am? or 5pm on Wednesday?

These are the minimums over the past 20 years, just to give everybody an idea. I could go back to a century, but i would fill a whole page up!! 1987 -23.3 Caldecott (Leics.) 13 January 1988 -11.6 Carnwath (Strathclyde) 22 November 1989 -14.0 Tummell Bridge 15 December 1990 -8.4 Grantown-on-Spey 15 February 1991 -16.0 Cawood (N Yorks.) 14 February 1992 -12.3 Worcester 22, 23 January 1993 -15.8 Altnaharra 26 December 1994 -13.8 Strathallan (Perth.) 17 February 1995 -27.2 Altnaharra 30 December 1996 -13.0 Aviemore 25 December 1997 -15.2 Shepshed (Lincs.) 3 January 1998 -17.0 Altnaharra 1 March 1999 -14.0 Sennybridge (south Wales) 20 December 2000 -15.0 Dalmally (Argyll) 30 December 2001 -21.7 Kibrace (Caithneess) 3 March 2002 -16.1 Grantown 2 January 2003 -18.3 Aviemore 7 January 2004 -15.2 Kinbrace (Sutherland) 19 December 2005 -13.2 Ravensworth (North Yorks.) 29 December 2006 -16.4 Altnaharra 2 March 2007 -10.7 Altnaharra 9 February Im going for the average minimum for the past 20 years. -16.7C

December to me looks like starting off very mild with some mild south westerlies for the first two weeks, but about average or maybe just below at Christmas with a return of high pressure, with cold foggy nights bringing the CET down. I'm strongly expecting a change to much colder conditions between Christmas and New Year, really pulling it down to where it should be, or below. In all, my punt would be 5.1C, simply because of the mild start.

Obviously the MetOffice are very well respected, so they are unlikely to stick their knecks out and predict anything too specific, beacuase in all honesty, they don't really know. The last thing they want is a bad forecast, putting doubts into people's minds about their forecasting ability. They've got all posts covered.

Sorry, i thought I was posting this in the right place, as it is to do with winter, and is probably the most respected winter forecast.

Well as promised by the MetOffice, they have updated their seasonal forecast today (22nd Novemeber). It is difficult to see much difference from their previous forecast back in October. Temperatures: More likely to be above average, but cooler than last year Precipitation: Drier than last year, around average or maybe above. This is it: This year, conditions in the North Atlantic Ocean favour a near-neutral North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), rather than the positive phase predicted and observed last winter. See the hyperlink for details of the impact of NAO on winter weather in Europe. However, La Niña conditions – which have widespread impacts across the globe - are now well established in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to persist through the winter period. There is evidence that La Niña has a weak influence on European winter climate, favouring positive NAO in the latter part of winter. Winter, in this context, is defined as the months of December, January and February although it is recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this period, especially in northern Britain. Forecast for Winter 2007/8 Temperature We continue to predict that above-normal winter temperatures are more likely than below-normal temperatures over much of the European region. However, this winter is likely to be less mild in most regions than last winter, when exceptionally mild conditions were widespread across Europe. For the UK as a whole, winter-mean temperatures are more likely to be above normal than either near or below normal. Although a winter milder than the 1971-2000 average is favoured, temperatures are likely to be lower than those experienced in the very mild winter last year. Precipitation Latest indications suggest that, for northern Europe, above-average winter rainfall is more likely than below-average rainfall. In contrast, for southern Europe below-average rainfall is more likely than above-average. For the UK as a whole, winter rainfall is slightly more likely to be near, or above average, than below average. What does everybody else think? Are the Met just covering their behinds again?

Looks like the old advice of sticking with your first decision is worth following!!

I don't really have any belief in it at all to be honest. When outside just now in the garden, I picked a mushroom which did not peel, instead it came off in lumps. So that would suggest a cold winter. Very wishful thinking! I think that if you do rely on old wives tales for the upcoming winter, then you will end up very dissapointed, computers are much more reliable than mushrooms!

Just to back up what I said earlier; here is a bit of classic advertising from Metcheck back in 2004, trying to get more of a name for theirselves by bating the media with shock forecasts. It's very common. If they had have been correct then everybody would see Metcheck as weather prophets. But after they were wrong, people just tend to blame weather forecasters in general, or not even remember at all. From the BBC News Website 13th October 2004 Prepare for one of the coldest winters on record, forecasters who predicted this summer's rain have advised - but the Met Office is not so sure. Metcheck.com predicts regular cold snaps until Christmas and prolonged bleak spells in January. The firm correctly forecast the deluges that hit Britain in the summer. But the long view is not shared by all. The Met Office, which issues a 4-week forecast, said it is "very difficult" to forecast so far in advance. Metcheck.com senior forecaster Andrew Bond said: "From what we are predicting, Britain could see its coldest winter of the century so far. He predicted bitterly cold winds in the south and snowfall in the north and said there would then be a very cold spell between 22-27 November.

No problem WhiteXmas. I was told another one today, which i've never heard before. I was told that if wild mushrooms in October do not peel, then the winter will be cold, and if they do peel, the winter will be mild. I think this is just one of those wishful thinking ones. I was always told that edible mushrooms peeled, and non edible ones didn't.

Beware of some of the severe winter forecasts that are so frequently published in the press and other media at this time of year, often these are originated by professional firms trying to make a name for themselves, or even just amateurs who would like to claim success and thus quickly establish themselves as weather prophets. If you believe them, 99% of the time you are going to be dissapointed. However, I have noticed that the University of Berlin have issued forecasts for a cool winter. We will have to wait and see, it's all part of the fun.

Well most of these "Old wives tales" are utter nonsense. However, people may sometimes think that they are corect, as they only ever remember the times when the outcome agreed with the tale, however they do not remember when it did not work. That's just the human way I suppose. Some are true, such as "Red sky at night" and all that, some are only true locally, such as "When the North wind doth blow, then we shall have snow". Here are some more I know of: 1)Oak before the Ash in for a splash, Ash before the oak you're in for a soak" 2)When the rooks nest high in the trees, then the following autumn shall be calm.(makes sense I suppose) 3)When the swallow's nest is high, summer is dry.When the swallow's nest is low, you can safely reap and sow 4)Rain before seven, fine before eleven 5)A sunshiny shower won't last half an hour 6)A cow with its tail to the West makes the weather best. A cow with its tail to the East makes the weather least 7)Ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter'll be slush and muck. If I think of any more, I will post then.

I think that snow in the few days leading up to Christmas is the best. It gives a really festive feel, and also is less liekly to cause disruption as children are off school, many people are off work, and most people stay at home preparing for Christmas. I would never complain about a white Christmas, although it is if you think about it, about the worst day of the year to have snow! (Well maybe not as bad as having snow during your holidays in July, but you know what I mean!)

Just for interest value, here is what was predicted way back on the 21st June, i've had it stored away just to see if its anything like the final outcome.

How on Earth can you say that!? Even with a record breakingly mild winter last year (06/07), much of southern England saw snow. There is no way AT ALL that anyone can write off chances of snow this winter, forecasting anything over 5 days becomes doubtfull, so how anyone can decide what exactly synoptics are going to do in months to come is beyond me

Yes, point taken, \lthough if we were now to have a run of 10 months below CET, you can imagine all of the discussions which would be on this board. I think global warming does have to be looked at on a global scale, and yes, I am in no doubt that we are warming, although I don't believe that it is caused my humans, many will probably shoot me down for that saying i'm passing on the blame, however I beleive that there other causes, which we don't understand one bit.