Shirelord
-
Posts
21 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Shirelord
-
-
Personally, i think that people may be dissapointed with the lack of snow for most of the working week, next week.
This is because while cold, the flow looks too stable to generate much shower activity away from East Anglia and south east England and then the flow picks up too much of a southerly component to generate any real shower activity at all.
The exemption to this looks to be Monday-Wednesday next week as a low pressure system approaches the Channel from the south west, and as usual the GFS and ECWMF are at war, the GFS bringing the low pressure faster and much further south, while the ECWMF brings the system much further north and practically has the system stalling.
The system in question, does not actually form for another 96 hours and approaches from west of Portugal, so while marginal dewpoints may be an issue in the south, the thermal gradiant should result in some impressive intensities and as much some impressive totals should the ECWMF have the correct idea.
I think it's quite early to be calling a dry week, T+96 only takes us to the end of the weekend and the ECM is showing a "raging" easterly. You only have to look at the Country Tracks forecast last Sunday to see how much can change within the 72-96 hour period (reviewing the forecast for yesterday and today).
If anything this spell has taught us that huge events can crop up at 24 hours notice, like the NAE on Monday.
-
No, Jay is rightly sticking with our latest UKMO (longer) medium range briefing from the Exeter folks, in which over the past two days they've hinted at consistently present but nonethless low confidence signal of a milder SW/S incursion and/or breakdown developing towards the end of the next 10-15 day prognosis, but until then, it must be stressed, it's an ever-entrenched cold set-up with far higher PROB.
What sort of synoptic output is it showing? The ECM has (bar today) consistently indicated renewed retrogression to the GIN sea area, is that something at is consistent with the UKMO 10-15 day outlook or is there more of an easterly component?
-
The system that formed over Cardigan bay seems to be heading South for South West England. Noticed the stalled front has started moving, following the track of the system from Cardigan bay. Certainly seems to be acting differently to what was expected...
Seems bang on to me.
-
Lol the latest NAE now has just 2-5cm of snow for the supposed Met Office "Red Zone" that on the 06z NAE showed 20-35cm of snow - pretty big change eh?There is huge uncertainty still over what is going to happen - BIG surprises and BIG dissapointments to come. Don't think anyone knows what's going to happen.
That appears to be a chart for tomorrow though, whilst the 'red zone' will be taking the hit tonight. The MetO are forecasting an east track of the low tomorrow so that ties in well.
-
Yes, this snowfall was a so rare. Because the temperature was over -4º...and the temperatures in 2000 masl were +0,5/+1...well, in Madrid over the 06:30 no Snow, Rain ice (How do you sais in English..Rain with -4º?). So Madrid was a chaos...
Quieres decir "Freezing rain", creo, cuando la lluvia se congela al momento de llegar al suelo?
-
Some clouds starting to blow in 5 miles west of Banbury, N Oxfordshire...nothing falling as of yet but the news from B'ham sounds promising.
-
Thick fog and drizzle here on the Oxon/Warks border
I can vouch for that
-
Rain in North Oxfordshire
-
Yep must be a huge wall around England and more so around the South East as if you listen on here the models only show that area.
Funny coz i see this set up effecting the whole UK at different periods.
Well rather than complaining and adding nothing why not step up to the plate and provide your opinion on SE wales?
-
The GFS has been really consistent in its runs. Last year it was all over the place at times if I am not mistaken. Is it not a case of role reversal for the GFS and ECM this year?
There is, of course, the possibility that GFS has been consistently wrong.
Certainly less retrogression on the ECM tonight, and in danger of being a UK high...we'll have to see how it fits on the ensembles.
-
Very notable in N. Oxon countryside (near Banbury), snow fell on 10 days, lay for 16 (like Northampton I guess) -maximum depth 10". Cold start to December, average up to Xmas then very cold in early January, -14C, then average for second half of January before that February spell (which I think we nearly got down to -14C again, genuine long icicles formed on our lamp posts
); then out like a damp squid like everyone else for the remainder of the winter in February - but can't complain that was easily the best winter for many a year. -
LOL, wow that chart for your Birthday was awesome! The day I was born my mum said there was a hard frost on the ground when she went in the ambulance to the hospital in the early hours. Maybe that's why i'm so mad on frost and snow :blush: and true for you too lol.
Mine was quite interesting for October! Bit of an 'if only it were July' chart really:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00119851014.gif
Back on the models, certainly interesting sounds from ECM FI:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif
Though I doubt the potency of any cold pool and the track of the flow would not doubt vary, probably for the milder, before we even think about shortwaves.
I think a fairy decent chance we're done, cold rain looks a good shout for the large part of March IMO, windy at times.
-
Still a bit of snow knocking around here even today, despite the spring-like temperatures. I walked the dogs through the park and some of paths were still slippy with much of the fields on the outskirts of town still covered in a diminishing covering of snow. The back garden today has finally lost its snow after two weeks. Revealing an unappealing mess, which will require me returfing the lot, having also had two whippets dancing around and three layers of turds. A few days dry weather right now allows the chance to smarten up a bit.
Joy!
Quite good yes - but having spent valentines in Bicester, there was a big difference between the amount of snow there and Brackley, just in the space of a few miles, comparatively. Quite clearly anywhere in Northamptonshire had an awful amount more snow that of Bucks or Oxon. Good stuff nonetheless - even yesterday most of the fields are still covered, though suffering today. Slippy in the park today and slushy.
I'm further north than Bicester, nearer to Banbury - I think it was snowier up here - especially my area which is the north-eastern edge of the Cotswolds, where the altitude helps., and all that snow that hit the SW also made it to my area. I didn't go to Northants during the spell, though Brackley isn't too far from Banbury, so I should imagine the tale was fairly similar between Northants and my area, but not Oxfordshire generally.
-
Corking year here in N Oxon, Snow in October, transient snow November. Cold for the majority of December then mild up to Xmas, then that really cold spell NY - early Jan, with sub-zero days frequent, and those -12C/-13C night minima, average to cool for the remainder of the month in January then from 31st Jan - 12th February at least some snow fell on every single day, we had 10 inches at one point and the greenery to the countryside only returned yesterday. Pretty good IMBY.
-
- Delete please, wrong thread.
-
Yes it's a tricky one, still got an OX postcode which confuses the issue.....
Yes, they go by postal towns that's why you have an OX post code. Henley on Thames has a RG (Reading) postcode, though it's in Oxon not Berks.
Good effort on the 11 inches though, must be that few extra feet.
-
Beat you !!
Where are you ??
Shutford, and you're in Warwickshire! Rah!
Nearly had a run in with that corner by the Ratley turning as you head into Edgehill village from the Stratford Road (the turning nearest to Banbury) on Monday, was going round that 90 degree corner and car just kept sliding! Averted disaster though.
-
And in between Oxford and Stratford we're laughing in North Oxfordshire
http://null.co.uk/weather.forum/down...file.php?id=724
-
Just on your first question, London is a sprawling city, only beaten in area by New York City. However, its climate is, as you will no doubt know, maritime dominated. London is on a wide estuary in the east, not far from the continent, but suffers greatly from the urban heat island effect, raising temperatures by some degrees compared to the surrounding countryside. Essentially, sea + concrete = warm. I would say for a city of similar size to NYC the climate differences are sharp.
); then out like a damp squid like everyone else for the remainder of the winter in February - but can't complain that was easily the best winter for many a year.
The No Snow Club 2010/2011
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Shirelord
tap all near Banbury and in Banbury, north Oxfordshire.