Gavin P
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Posts posted by Gavin P
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So you think we're going to have to wait until 2013 for a cold winter (bearing in mind we haven't actually had a cold winter since 95/96)????
Theres going to be a lot of unhappy faces around on Internet forums like this one for the next 7 years!
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LOL! Thats grim news. Thats when most of us thought winter might actually kick in! Is this going to be "The Year Without A Winter?"
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My forecast has been out for a couple of weeks and avaliable on http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=39
It lists drier periods till the end of 2007 and is general for the whole country. The emphasis is on trends, which is the nature of longrange forecasting. The common mistake is to evaluate such work using terms of reference devised for short term. The usefulness lies not in the detail but in the potential for longer term planning. Moon-weather deniers will, however, find probably fault regardless. That prediction alone carries 100% confidence!
It may interest some readers here that I have a new book out published by Random House (NZ) called 'The Lunar Code', which explains and proves the lunar cycles, and enables anyone to perform longrange forecasting for any year or season ahead. I basically wrote it for professional forecasters and farmers. Without an awareness of what I am claiming, any discussion of the method on this forum is premature and uninformed. The ISBN is 1-86941-852-2
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com
Hi.
Interesting forecast. I notice in an earlier forecast on your website, you say that the UK will now be expecting a period of "Less Cold" winters for the next 5 years. Can I ask, "Less Cold" than what? "Less Cold" than the last 5 years? Because anyone will tell you that the winters here, over the last 5 years, have been pretty mild anyway. By saying the coming winter will be "Less Cold" it somehow implies that at some point in the last 5 years we've had a series of cold winters, which couldn't be further from the truth. You have to go back to 90/91 to find anything that could be described as really cold during winter, and possibly back to the mid 1980's for anything that could be described as severe. The UK has been an absolutely barren world for severe winter weather for many, many, many years now.
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True, but I don't see the word "severe" being used in the forecast.
Thats what I'm saying. It could just be moderatly cold, but still quite snowey, as long as the jet and the pressure belts are all in the correct positions (which the met wouldn't know this far out)
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The thing is, you don't need a massive amount of severe cold, to get snow. At this far out, the Met simply wouldn't know how much snow may fall in any cold snaps in February.
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I would say the most likely explaination is that the Met's dynamic model continues to throw out this kind of output;
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...bT2mMonNorm.gif
Which has been consistenly showing a marked cool down for February and March. Of course, its much to far out to take this kind of experimental model output with certainty, hence the caveats.
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John Kettleys comments about the winter proper starting in the New Year were in his column in the Mail on Sunday yesterday. Of course, its open to interpratation as to what he meant. His comments are in-line with this piece on the BBC web-site though;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/christmas/fea...ictions06.shtml
Where it says a "chill" may set in during early 2007. Once again, that could mean anything from a fleeting "toppler" to a bitter Easterly.
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See winter LRFs on the top section of the page
BFTP
Cool. I'll check it out. Thanks. :blink:
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Earlier I was thinking rather mild, now I am thinking very mild. This seems to my rudimentary mind the perfect set-up for a record warm December. Very warm air is blasting in from the Atlantic day after day. New moon and southern max on the 20th, beyond the model and normal forecast horizon, usually produce very mild weather in a mild pattern, by forcing the flow just that little bit extra, like paying Wayne Rooney extra to play a little better.
As a result, 8.3 C for me. I'm expecting it to turn radically colder very soon after this all goes down, but it's a long way from Alaska to Sweden, which is about the only route that cold air can take to reach you now that Greenland is being overwhelmed by the returning mild easterly and eastern North America is saying "sorry, no service."
Hey Roger, very interesting prediction. Its a job to imagine it getting cold after such a horribly mild December as the one your predicting, but these days it seems anything is possible :blink:
Out of interest, have you issued a full winter forecast? (I'm new to this forum, BTW, so I'm not familier with your posts) :huh:
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Well I've always believed people shouldn't be attacked when they issue LRF's and then they go wrong (goodness knows, I've issued enough forecasts that have gone wrong over the years
)However, in this case I think Piers should be held to account. He is clearly using his forecasts to try and make political points and as such he should be made to answer for the things he says.
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Welcome to the forum Gavin. You have not posted your location. It's not rural West Northants by any chance is it ?
LOL Ian. I've not had a chance to sort out my sig/profile.
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'Tis me. And thanks for your kind words. TWO is a great forum as well.
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Welcome to the forum Gavin B)
Hey thanks.
My old mate Steve Murr post's here and I've been browsing the forum for some days and it seems like a good place to hang out. B)
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6.2 would be my guess for this December's CET. Generally a very mild month, but possibly with a fairly potent cold snap after the 15th and before Christmas. Christmas itself quite mild. Possibly colder again by New Years Eve.
:unsure:
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Ken Ring's Winter Forecast
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Gavin P
OK, but last winter wasn't a 69/70 or anything like it. And the winter before definatly wasn't a 68/69! :unsure: