Lenticular
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Posts posted by Lenticular
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OMG heavy HEAVY snow!!
Must be localised as im in Bocking and its only very lightly snowing here.
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Amazing scenes here in Colchester, Heavy blowing snow!
Got to come back over colchester at about 6 to collect my girlfriend, whats the roads like? coming from Braintree, its not to bad this way, snowing but nothing to heavy.
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ah! But the front becomes stationary over us for at least 12 hours tomorrow morning:
midnight: http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVE89.png
Havent trusted the MetO Fax charts for about a 2 weeks now as they have not handled this spell of weather particularly well and have not been as accurate as normal, think its a case of wait and see, but i do get a sense that some one in the MetO is ramping.
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Morning all.
Lite dusting here last night but only about 2-3cm
i am probably going to make myself unpopular for saying this but the warm front/system coming up from Europe and over Holland has all ready starting to decay, if you look at the latest radar loop for Northern Europe you can see the level of decay http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&soort=loop24uur&URL and if you focus in on Holland and watch the last few hours you can see the decay happening. dont think that we are going to quite get the apocalypse that some are hoping for.
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Left Braintree 5am -7c in Dagenham now still -5c, looking at the latest radar some heavy snow possible for most of East Anglia and if the latest Satrep is correct then as the low moves SSW it will push the trough further inland. Think certain areas could get a bit more snow than was forecast.
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Getting very patchy but heavy showers at the moment, isobars actually look to be tightening on the S/W of the country with winds picking up
My linkhttp://meteocentre.com/analyse/map
think that if the lows dumbbell around one and other the winds could pick up quite a bit.
Just to add we have just had two very loud claps of thunder but couldn't see any flash as we have torrential rain as well
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Hi
Weather has been a bit more stable that forecast today.
Nice and Sunny with the Cu building up cloud streets as the day went by.
Now quite a bit of high cloud with broken lower level Cu
Pressure = 1022mb
Temp = 11c
Wind = 10mph SSW
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Well as i haven't posted anything on here for ages id better have a go.
Bit of thermic weather on sunday.
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Pressure = 1002
Temp = 9c
Wind = None to speak of but upper WNW drift on clouds
Weather = Scattered Cu with some heavy Showers, Sunny & clear otherwise.
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Pressure = 998mb
Temp = 4C
Wind = NNW 10-20mph in the Showers
Weather = has been bright and sunny with infrequent but heavy snow showers.
Becoming more persistent and prolonged as the day goes by.
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Well first post and login Since Oct 1st according to the site when i signed in
Pressure = 993 rising slowly
Temp = 2C
Wind = 20-35mph NNW
Dry at present after some earlier hail showers.
The wind has slowly been picking up after backing right off this-afternoon
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Hi Paul
in response to the latest news letter = while i love the site to bits there is one thing that stops me using the GFS and other charts in the data centre, there are no ways to animate or step frame forward or backward, so instead you have to press the individual hour codes and doesn't give a nice flow to watch weather systems develop.
but this is my only gripe.
Cheers
Rob
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Pressure = 1025mb
Temp = 18C
Wind = SW 5mph
Weather = Sunny day with 40-50% Cumulus cloud cover.
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Pressure = 1025mb
Temp = 12C
Wind = N 5mph
Weather = Clear and cold night, now bright fresh morning with just a few thin bits of stratus
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Pressure = 1019mb
Temp = 18C
Wind = N 9mph
Weather = Cloudy start but has cleared slowly over the day, now clear sky
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Pressure = 1032mb
Temp = 17C
Wind = NNW but only about 2-3mph
Weather = Clear sky with just a few low level developing Cumulus clouds
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Pressure = 1032mb
Temp = 21C lovely
Wind = NNW 6mph
Weather = started out with a clear blue sky but has become overcast with a dose of anti cyclonic gloom. low level stratus
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From the sat image above and other sat pics IR and Vis Looks like the system has dropped south quite a bit and is about to pop out into the Pacific with quite a bit of the structure intact into and area where Henriette redeveloped in to a cat2 from a very week and decayed tropical low, so it will be interesting to see how much if any redevelopment there is, as this sat image shows Felix is already starting to draw from the South and west already.
the track of this is now further south than all the models but does seam to be following the GDFL from about 3 days ago which showed it p[oping out into the Pacific then tracking the South American coast, will be interesting to see were it goes.
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Looking at this i dont think that the fat lady has sung for this system just yet, lots of convection to the north and on the IR quite a bit of moisture being drawn from the Pacific as well, this could keep Felix going for a little while yet, but the track models are completely different from this-morning so where this is gong is a bit of a guess.
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Pressure = 1030mb
Temp = 10C
Wind = Light & variable
Weather = clear & star lit night, but bike thermometer showed only 8C,so quite a nip in the air.
Thank god for heated grips
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Pressure = 1028mb
Temp = 17C
Wind = N 7mph
Weather = Early broken Strauts Clear and sunny all day, not a cloud in the sky now.
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Pressure = 1024mb
Temp = 8C
Wind = N 5mph
Weather = Very thin layer of cloud so no stars. just been out for a cig and there is a definite Autumnal feel to the air.
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Latest Sat of Felix
And the latest IR showing nice cold cloud top to the NW with the water vapour sat images showing plenty of moist air.
both still showing an eye structure of sorts.
Just read this, think that the system could make a slight right turn as to take its track a bit more WNW
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS WEAKENED TODAY. MAXIMUM SFMR
WINDS WERE 118 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO BUT THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT SINCE THEN. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD OPENED UP TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 115 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW SOME RECENT
COOLING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS PARTICULARLY ON THE
WEST SIDE...AND IN FACT THE MOST RECENT MESSAGES FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL MAY HAVE CLOSED UP AGAIN.
HIGH-DENSITY FLIGHT LEVEL DATA PLOTS GIVE A HINT OF A SECONDARY
WIND MAXIMUM SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...BUT THIS IS NOT EVIDENT FROM OTHER DATA
SOURCES SUCH AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SINCE THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE...THE HURRICANE MAY RE-INTENSIFY
PRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH LAND. THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. REGARDLESS...WE EXPECT FELIX TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE ARE UNSURE OF HOW LONG FELIX
WILL REMAIN OVER LAND. SINCE THIS HURRICANE HAS A SMALL INNER
CORE...THE LARGE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS COULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
MORE RAPIDLY THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE OF 17
KT. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-DEFINED
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FELIX. THIS REGIME
IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SOME WEAKENING. THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
ALBEIT IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET.
OFFICE...NOGAPS...AND GFS DYNAMICAL MODELS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISLA PROVIDENCIAS SINCE
SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER THAT ISLAND TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.3N 79.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 14.5N 81.9W 120 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 14.9N 84.5W 90 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0600Z 15.5N 86.6W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1800Z 16.2N 88.8W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 17.6N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1800Z 20.5N 99.5W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
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Latest Sat pic i could find.
Looking at all the model runs apart from the GDFL they all take Felix in to an area (WNW) with SST's a good 1.5 to 2 deg warmer that its over at present, also will be less shaded by land to the south so this system has almost perfect conditions to increase in size and strenght dramaticaly, think the models have under estimated is max wind speeds by a good 25knot's.
Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Lenticular
Hi Mondy you been allowed back???
i think it was yesterday morning i said that the front coming from Holland was decaying even before it got over the north sea so its no surprise that it has all but died last night,
the next thing looking into next week will be the return of the atlantic on Tuesday,
The jet looks to be recurving north and warm air masses start to push in from the SW, the first incursion will probably be around Tuesday morning and we may get a full Atlantic low with quite a few fronts then another one Thursday. think that the cold spell has pretty much ended and the only chance we have of more snow is into Feb as i think we might get another short cold spell.