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Michael Winston

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Posts posted by Michael Winston

    West Midlands Regional Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    Piers corbyn has updated to say double the amount of snow farcasted on t.v !

    Corbyn has a very bad name on Netweather. If you get the chance, search the archives and see what experienced members (unlike me!) have to say about him.

    Kind regards,

    Mike.

    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Not sure what you mean? The fax chart at 96hr as drawn is about as classic a "SW frontal snow" chart as you could get. If it happens like that of course, which is highly unlikely! Why do you think it isn't? SE winds, an occluded front heading into cold air and the trough disrupting and sliding under the block up the Channel!

    However that chart has since been replaced by the 84hr chart (look at the forecast time, it is the same), which to my eye is much less favourable - it shows more of a straight-on attack rather than an undercut, although the trough is doing its best to disrupt. Also the cold air makes less inroads west, looking at the 528dam line.

    Bear in mind that in this set-up, the 528dam line is not too critical.

    That fax chart is showing an occluded approaching the Southwest, the true warm sector is way down in Southwest France, as the front approaches, the cold air stays for some time (warm air rises), think it was Piers Corbyn who alikend it to water over treacle. Dew points maybe a little on wrong side of marginal according to the GFS around coasts and far far southwest, but this is different to what the fax is showing.

    As always the met are giving a heads up too, depending how things change over the next day or two that amber is likely to change, as the Southwest tends to get the most severe snow falls in the uk or nothing at all. so that warning could dissappear or turn red

    Many thanks for those answers chaps. That's cleared up a blank spot for me!

    All to play for then!

    Kind regards,

    Mike

    Public Ignorance Of Weather And Forecasting.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    There's loads of stuff on the web about Lorenz, meteorology and chaos theory. Like here http://www.aip.org/history/climate/chaos.htm and here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Norton_Lorenz

    I'm buggered if I can get my head around it, but it strikes me that, like CH, I agree that not only is this a tremendously difficult area but I feel strongly that those who can't be bothered to put in the time themselves and study any subject pass the blame of failure onto those that do.'' It's all your fault'' and ''let someone else do it'' seem to be the watch words.

    We don't blame firefighters for house fires. Why blame meteorologists for the enormity of dynamics beyond our control?

    Kind regards,

    Mike.

    Model Thread - 14th Jan - Mk2

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    ECM mean.

    http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?14-0

    Im becoming increasingly confident of the outlook now. Simple summary is turning colder next weekend with snowfall possible in some areas. Thereafter remaining cold especially towards the SE but Ireland/NW may turn slightly less cold. Going even further the combination of blocking remainiing to the NE, trough into Europe, PV to the W of Greenland means further undercutting is possible which may lead towards an E,ly developing.

    Thanks, Dave.

    In a rare post here I'd like to agree with your astute observations which confirm the trends my untrained mind had identified.

    Regards,

    Mike.

    P.S. Very belated Happy New year greetings.

    Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    UK forecast - Day 16 to 30

    UK Outlook for Thursday 19 Jan 2012 to Thursday 2 Feb 2012:

    Remaining fairly unsettled in the north at first, with spells of wind and rain, interspersed by brighter but colder conditions with showers, wintry over high ground in particular. Further south, somewhat quieter conditions look more likely, with less in the way of rain. Towards the end of January, high pressure may become more influential, resulting in drier and probably brighter conditions becoming more prevalent across the country. Temperatures for many areas will initially be around or slightly above average, with a trend to slightly colder conditions towards the end of the month, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps some fog.

    Issued at: 0252 on Wed 4 Jan 2012

    Yes, it's interesting that the Meto didn't issue this until a couple of hours after the day 6 -15 forecast. It's as if they had things to ponder. Or am I just being a conspiracy theorist?

    Regards,

    Mike.

    Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Michael Winston

    Him, everyone using conventional methods and even me as an art historian looking at the pressure charts can see that one coming at 1-2 days out!

    Too true, CR.

    ''A painting is a hypothesis which we test by looking at.''

    E.H. Gombrich ( International Herald Tribune August 1991)

    I suppose us art historians can test Piers' hypotheses in the same way, but unlike looking at, say, Rembrandt, we can have a bloody good laugh - all too rare in this line of work (art history, that is!). Thanks and a tip of the hat to the late, great Ernie!

    Best wishes,

    Mike.

    P.S. Happy New Year Piers - I bet you didn't predict you'd get that from me! I wonder if he ever reads these threads?

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