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Zenarcher

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  1. Zenarcher
    [b]Introduction,[/b]

    Over the course of September and October this year I carried out a experiment to see what weather models performed the best at different time ranges from 24 hours to 144 hours.

    [b]How it works,[/b]

    Firstly I would let all the models do their 12z runs so none over them had a 12 hour advantage over another. Once they had done their 12z run I would pick a location and each model predicted its thought on it. The models then get awarded points on how close they are.

    [b]The results for forecasting 24 hours out. It was very tight most of them got the predictions correct but GME was more consistent gaining the highest average points.[/b]


    1. GME 127.
    2. ENS 119.
    3. GFS 110.
    4. ECM 107.
    5. NOGAPS 107.
    6. UKMO 106.
    7. NAE 99.
    8. GEM 94.
    9. CMC 91.
    10. JMA 80.
    11. RHMC 78.

    [b]The results for forecasting 48 hours out. The ECM always performed well and is 20 points clear of the GFS ENS.[/b]


    1. ECM 98.
    2. ENS 78.
    3. GFS 72.
    4. CMC 72.
    5. NOGAPS 66.
    5. JMA 61.
    7. UKMO 58.
    8. NAE 58.
    9. GME 56.
    10. GEM 56.
    11. RHMC 34.

    [b]The results for forecasting 72 hours out. This was another tight one with 6 weather models doing very well but overall we have a tie between ECM and GEM.[/b]


    1. ECM 46.
    2. GEM 46.
    3. CMC 44.
    4. NOGAPS 44.
    5. UKMO 44.
    6. GME 44.
    7. GFS 40.
    8. JMA 30.
    9. ENS 28.
    10. RHMC 26.

    [b]The results for forecasting 96 hours out. You may have noticed there's only 8 now because RHMC and GME don't go over 96 hours. So overall JMA done very well here despite not doing to well in the previous results.[/b]


    1. JMA 52.
    2. UKMO 42.
    3. GFS 34.
    4. NOGAPS 34.
    5. ECM 34.
    6. GEM 26.
    7. CMC 24.
    8. ENS 24.

    [b]The results for forecasting 120 hours out. I was surprised to see NOGAPS do well here but it always performed well.[/b]


    1. NOGAPS 64.
    2. GEM 45.
    3. ECM 44.
    4. ENS 42.
    5. CMC 38.
    6. JMA 36.
    7. GFS 32.
    8. UKMO 16.

    [b]And finally for forecasting 144 hours out. The GFS done well here and followed by the ECM.[/b]


    1. GFS 51.
    2. ECM 44.
    3. ENS 37.
    4. UKMO 34.
    5. NOGAPS 30.
    6. CMC 20.
    7. JMA 20.
    8. GEM 19.

    [b]So what weather models are the best? I have added up the points below and the ECM has won overall gaining the most points followed by a tie between GFS and NOGAPS. I think it may surprise people on how poorly the UKMO performed.[/b]


    1. ECM 313.
    2. GFS 293.
    3. NOGAPS 293.
    4. GFS ENS 284.
    5. CMC 251.
    6. UKMO 248.
    7. GEM 242.
    8. JMA 231.

    I hope you found this interesting and I will carry out the same experiment again at the start of 2012.
  2. Zenarcher
    Welcome to the weather model experiment of 2013, in 2011 the ECM won it and in 2012 the UKMO won it but what model performed the best through out this experiment? It took place in December 2013.

    These are the 9 models that took part in this experiment and some of them are new the NAVGEM, NASA and CMA which have never been tested before against the rest.

    GFS
    ECM
    UKMO
    JMA
    GME
    GEM
    NAVGEM
    NASA GEOS5
    CMA

    So how does it work? I let each model do its 12z runs and I pick a random location at different time periods and then wait for that day to arrive and check the actual conditions and weather reports, whatever model gets it more accurate gains more points. The longer range forecast for example 144 hours awards more points than 24 hours.

    [b]24 Hours -[/b] UKMO performed the best closely followed by GEM and JMA. The GFS is surprisingly at the bottom struggling to gain points.

    1. UKMO 17
    2. GEM 16
    3. JMA 15
    4. ECM 14
    5. GME 11
    6. NASA GEOS5 9
    7. CMA 9
    8. GFS 7
    9. NAVGEM 7

    [b]48 Hours -[/b] The ECM takes the most points here followed by JMA and GEM. Both the UKMO and GFS performed slightly poorer than expected.

    1. ECM 30
    2. JMA 27
    3. GEM 25
    4. NAVGEM 25
    5. NASA GEOS5 24
    6. GFS 23
    7. UKMO 20
    8. GME 20
    9. CMA 12

    [b]72 Hours -[/b] Once again the ECM is on top followed by the GFS which is much higher up this time.

    1. ECM 53
    2. GFS 43
    3. NAVGEM 33
    4. UKMO 24
    5. JMA 24
    6. GEM 24
    7. NASA GEOS5 28
    8. GME 22
    9. CMA 22

    [b]96 Hours - [/b] JMA managed to just gain a few more points here than the ECM. The GEM model wasn't too far behind either. Once again we see the UKMO and GFS score slightly lower than you would expect.

    1. JMA 53
    2. ECM 50
    3. GEM 48
    4. NAVGEM 27
    5. UKMO 23
    6. GFS 20
    7. NASA GEOS5 16
    8. CMA 7

    [b]120 Hours -[/b] GEM sits at the top 9 points clear of the JMA as the GFS really struggled at this point.

    1. GEM 52
    2. JMA 43
    3. ECM 41
    4. NAVGEM 35
    5. UKMO 30
    6. CMA 18
    7. NASA GEOS5 15
    8. GFS 13

    [b]144 Hours -[/b] GEM continued to stay strong in the longer range as it sits 30 points ahead of the ECM in second while NAVGEM performed really badly.

    1. GEM 93
    2. ECM 63
    3. JMA 58
    4. UKMO 48
    5. GFS 41
    6. CMA 28
    7. NAVGEM 8

    [size=5][b]Total Points Gained[/b][/size]

    [b]Best Models Between 24 and 72 Hours - [/b]The ECM is the clear winner here gaining the most points within the first 72 hours followed by the GFS and JMA. The UKMO scored slightly lower than I expected it to.

    1. ECM 97
    2. GFS 73
    3. JMA 66
    4. GEM 65
    5. NAVGEM 65
    6. UKMO 61
    7. NASA GEOS5 61
    8. GME 53
    9. CMA 43

    [b]Best Models Between 96 and 144 Hours -[/b] It's fair to say GEM performed really well here while the ECM and JMA were also strong and tie in points.

    1. GEM 193
    2. ECM 154
    3. JMA 154
    4. UKMO 101
    5. GFS 74
    6. NAVGEM 70
    7. CMA 53

    [size=5][b]Best Overall Models[/b][/size]

    [b]1. GEM 258[/b]
    [b]2. ECM 251[/b]
    [b]3. JMA 220[/b]
    [b]4. UKMO 162[/b]
    [b]5. GFS 147[/b]
    [b]6. NAVGEM 135[/b]
    [b]7. CMA 96[/b]
    [b]8. NASA GEOS5 92[/b]
    [b]9. GME 53[/b]

    [b]Overall -[/b] So GEM is the 2013 winner but a very well deserved second place goes to the ECM. The JMA model also performed well during the experiment. I was surprised to see last years winner the UKMO score slightly less points this time and the GFS had a lot of bad moments. The new models done well but didn't challenge any of the bigger models.
  3. Zenarcher
    [b]Introduction[/b]

    Hi all, since 2011 I've done a yearly weather model experiment to find the best performing one.

    The previous winners were,

    2011 ECM
    2012 UKMO
    2013 GEM

    This time the experiment took part during December 2014. We will be testing the nine weather models listed below,

    European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts = ECM
    Japan Meteorological Agency = JMA
    Met Office = UKMO
    Canadian Weather Service = GEM
    Global Forecast System = GFS
    Global Forecast System Parallel = GFS(P)
    Navy Global Environmental Model = NAVGEM
    Global weather forecast model = GME
    China Meteorological Administration = CMA

    So how does it work? To make it fair all of the models are tested by using their 12z runs from the same day. All they have to do is forecast from 24 to 144 hours for a random location I've chosen the more accurate they are the more points are awarded and bonus points are awarded for how far they forecast out. For example the points awarded for getting something correct at 144 hours is much higher than at 24 hours.

    [b]24 Hours[/b]

    As you would expect its pretty close between them with the ECM and JMA doing the best here.

    [attachment=239658:24hours.png]

    [b]48 Hours[/b]

    The ECM and both the new and old GFS models all performed well here with the UKMO and NAVGEM not too far behind them.

    [attachment=239659:48hours.png]

    This chart below shows the total scores so far and who has performed the best upto the current time scale. The ECM currently leads with both the GFS models behind.

    [attachment=239660:Upto48.png]

    [b]72 Hours[/b]

    The JMA performed the best here while the ECM and UKMO are not too far behind.

    [attachment=239661:72hours.png]

    The latest total scores show the ECM still leading with the JMA and UKMO just behind. The GFS models are still close and last years winner the GEM seems to be performing below expectations.

    [attachment=239662:Upto72.png]

    [b]96 Hours[/b]

    Surprisingly its the old GFS model that tops the scores here and is comfortably ahead of second place. The CMA done a good job as well beating the UKMO and last years winner.

    [attachment=239666:96hours.png]

    The latest total scores show the ECM still leading but the old GFS model has caught up with it and is only a few points behind.

    [attachment=239667:Upto96.png]

    [b]120 Hours[/b]

    The new GFS model done a great job here and performed much better than the older version. The ECM and NAVGEM also performed well at this time range.

    [attachment=239672:120hours.png]

    The top scores up to this point show the ECM still leading with the JMA and the new GFS model behind it. Last years winner GEM is going to have to perform greatly at 144 hours if it wants the top spot again.

    [attachment=239673:Upto120.png]

    [b]144 Hours[/b]

    Once again the new GFS model performs much better here than not only the older version of the GFS model but than the rest as well it's so far ahead in points here. The CMA also done a good job while the ECM performed slightly poorer than expected.

    [attachment=239675:144hours.png]

    The final results are shown below,

    [attachment=239676:FinalResults.png]

    So it's the brand new GFS model that's the winner and it managed to beat the ECM at the last part of the experiment however the ECM still done a great job and was for most of the experiment the best performing model. The old GFS finished in third nearly 100 point behind the new version so this may be evidence than the new GFS model is indeed better. Next the JMA and UKMO finish still near the top and are close in points. NAVGEM finishes in the middle spot while last years winner GEM done terrible this time. CMA and GME finish in the final two spots at the bottom.
  4. Zenarcher
    I'm using the Climate Simulator which I've used over the past 2 years and found it to be very accurate for predicting average temperatures for long range forecasts and also I will be using the CFS maps as well. I have compared all of my data to last years to make comparisons and fine tune my forecast.

    [b]December[/b]

    Climate Simulator - The dark blue line at the top show our average temperatures and the red line just underneath it shows our forecast temperature for December. It's saying as December progresses its more likely to gradually become colder than average.

    [attachment=230421:decsim.png]

    Rainfall - Most of England and Wales can expect a wetter than average month along with parts of Ireland and Scotland while the far North West of Scotland looks fairly average and may end up drier than average.

    [attachment=230420:DecRain.png]

    Temperature - The CFS predictions seem to match the Climate Simulator, with close to average temperatures for most of the UK. Temperatures across England and Wales do look like they will be slightly higher than average but only by a very small margin.

    [attachment=230422:DecTemp.png]

    [size=5][b]December Summary[/b][/size] - The first 3 weeks of December (1st to 21st) is expected to be mainly unsettled with average rainfall totals and at times some heavy rainfall for places in Wales and England. High pressure is expected to sit to our North East forcing low pressure systems to track further South than usual thanks to a Southerly tracking Jet Stream. When the low pressure systems are not about high pressure will mainly be strong over England and Wales giving some short settled periods along with mild temperatures.

    The last week of December (22nd to 31st) is expected to turn colder there seems to be a strong signal for this to occur I expect to see a blocking pattern occur around this point. The cold weather will bring snowfall mainly to the Northern half of the UK but high ground areas across all of the UK and Ireland could see snowfall. Strong Northerly winds with at times very low temperatures will affect the North West of the UK and all of Ireland. The rest of the UK that's further South can expect cold temperatures along with frosts and perhaps some short cold snaps producing wintry weather.

    [b]January[/b]

    Climate Simulator - It's going for temperatures to continue to stay on the cold side for the entire month.

    [attachment=230424:jansim.png]

    Rainfall - Mostly Wales, Southern parts of England and Ireland look to have just a small amount of rainfall more than average but mostly places look average for January.

    [attachment=230423:JanRain.png]

    Temperature - Again we see the Climate Simulator and CFS closely agreeing here. The CFS goes for average temperatures for all of the UK and Ireland.

    [attachment=230425:JanTemp.png]

    [size=5][b]January Summary[/b][/size] - The first half of January (1st to 18th) remains on the colder side with widespread frosts and some wintry weather affecting parts of the UK mainly in the North where winds will be strong at times as well. I expect the blocking pattern to weaken slightly here but still enough to give off some cold weather. The far South of Ireland and England will see some unsettled weather at times as low pressure systems pass nearby giving some wet and windy weather but average temperatures remain.

    The second half of January (19th to 31st) turns much colder for all parts of the UK and Ireland as the Atlantic begins to lose some power and the blocking pattern begins to get stronger again. Some settled periods can be expected with frosts and drier spells along with some wintry weather affecting any parts of the UK and Ireland could occur at some point but most likely at the very end of the month.

    [b]February[/b]

    Climate Simulator - It's saying February looks to be the coldest month out of winter.

    [attachment=230427:febsim.png]

    Rainfall - It is looking very dry for most of the month, especially across England and Wales.

    [attachment=230426:FebRain.png]

    Temperature - The CFS goes for average temperatures again here.

    [attachment=230428:FebTemp.png]

    [size=5][b]February Summary[/b][/size] - The first half of February (1st to 15th) continues to stay on the cold side of things with some wintry weather being widespread across much of the country as the blocking remains strong up to this point and we could see some short dry spells occur.

    The second half of February (16th to 28th) see's a change. The blocking pattern that's been mostly in control collapses as the Atlantic begins to take power again. England and Wales still enjoy settled weather though as high pressure remains over them giving off average temperatures and very dry weather. However for Ireland and Scotland while temperatures are close to average, a lot of wet and windy weather moves in for the remainder of the month.

    [b]March[/b]

    Climate Simulator - It says the first half will remain cold and the second half does become slighter warmer but stays just under average.

    [attachment=230431:marsim.png]

    Rainfall - It's looking mostly average with the South West of England perhaps seeing drier weather.

    [attachment=230429:MarchRain.png]

    Temperature - The CFS goes for average temperatures during March.

    [attachment=230430:MarchTemp.png]

    [size=5][b]March Summary[/b][/size] - The first 3 weeks (1st to 22nd) is looking mostly cold as the Atlantic begins to weaken again the blocking pattern reappears giving the UK and Ireland a chance to see more wintry weather.

    The last week (23rd to 31st) the blocked pattern starts to collapse again and the cold temperatures start to rise. High pressure starts to move in across the South West giving off settled weather across the South as the North turns unsettled.

    [b]Too Long Didn't Read Version[/b] - December mainly unsettled and average turning colder in the final part with a chance of snow. January mostly cold but unsettled in the South at times and turning colder everywhere towards the very end. February first half looking very cold and wintry but turning more unsettled in the North at the end and the South remains settled. March switches back to cold weather for most of the time but becomes more average and unsettled in the very end.

    I will continue to do my monthly forecasts through the winter. I just decided to do a very long range forecast for this winter.
  5. Zenarcher
    Here are some pictures of what the weather looked from space during the winter. Of course most of the time the UK was covered in cloud but here are the rare few moments when it was clear enough to see.

    [b]18th March 2015[/b] - Snow over the very top of the Scottish Highland mountains can be seen.

    [attachment=247548:18thmarch.png]

    [b]9th March 2015[/b] - Storm passing over the NW of Scotland bringing gusts over 90mph.

    [attachment=247544:9thmarch.png]

    [b]17th February 2015[/b] - Most of the UK was cloudy but the SE escaped with sunshine.

    [attachment=247547:17thfeb.png]

    [b]14th February 2015[/b] - Excellent clear view of the West of Scotland with snow on the hills over the Highlands.

    [attachment=247545:14thfeb.png]

    [b]29th January 2015[/b] - Another storm brings gusts over 90mph again to the NW of Scotland.

    [attachment=247553:29thjanuary.png]

    [b]19th January 2015[/b] - Just the NE of Scotland got away from the cloud allowing us to see the snow.

    [attachment=247549:19thjanuary.png]

    [b]2nd January 2015[/b] - Most of Ireland, Wales and England got seen.

    [attachment=247543:2ndjanuary.png]

    [b]28th December 2014[/b] - Snowfall moved further South across the country. Wales had some snow on the hills.

    [attachment=247551:28thdecember.png]

    Also on the same day Southern Scotland and Northern England had snow on the hills.

    [attachment=247552:28thdecember2.png]

    [b]16th December 2014[/b] - Snow over the Scottish Highlands.

    [attachment=247546:16thdecemeber.png]

    [b]2nd December 2014[/b] - Really good clear day for Ireland.

    [attachment=247542:2nddecember.png]

    [b]23rd November 2014 [/b]- Cloud to the SE while sunnier elsewhere and a low pressure system giving unsettled weather for the NW this image alone sums up the large difference in weather the UK can experience in a single day.

    [attachment=247550:23rdnovember.png]
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