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Zenarcher

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Blog Entries posted by Zenarcher

  1. Zenarcher
    Welcome to the weather model experiment of 2013, in 2011 the ECM won it and in 2012 the UKMO won it but what model performed the best through out this experiment? It took place in December 2013.

    These are the 9 models that took part in this experiment and some of them are new the NAVGEM, NASA and CMA which have never been tested before against the rest.

    GFS
    ECM
    UKMO
    JMA
    GME
    GEM
    NAVGEM
    NASA GEOS5
    CMA

    So how does it work? I let each model do its 12z runs and I pick a random location at different time periods and then wait for that day to arrive and check the actual conditions and weather reports, whatever model gets it more accurate gains more points. The longer range forecast for example 144 hours awards more points than 24 hours.

    [b]24 Hours -[/b] UKMO performed the best closely followed by GEM and JMA. The GFS is surprisingly at the bottom struggling to gain points.

    1. UKMO 17
    2. GEM 16
    3. JMA 15
    4. ECM 14
    5. GME 11
    6. NASA GEOS5 9
    7. CMA 9
    8. GFS 7
    9. NAVGEM 7

    [b]48 Hours -[/b] The ECM takes the most points here followed by JMA and GEM. Both the UKMO and GFS performed slightly poorer than expected.

    1. ECM 30
    2. JMA 27
    3. GEM 25
    4. NAVGEM 25
    5. NASA GEOS5 24
    6. GFS 23
    7. UKMO 20
    8. GME 20
    9. CMA 12

    [b]72 Hours -[/b] Once again the ECM is on top followed by the GFS which is much higher up this time.

    1. ECM 53
    2. GFS 43
    3. NAVGEM 33
    4. UKMO 24
    5. JMA 24
    6. GEM 24
    7. NASA GEOS5 28
    8. GME 22
    9. CMA 22

    [b]96 Hours - [/b] JMA managed to just gain a few more points here than the ECM. The GEM model wasn't too far behind either. Once again we see the UKMO and GFS score slightly lower than you would expect.

    1. JMA 53
    2. ECM 50
    3. GEM 48
    4. NAVGEM 27
    5. UKMO 23
    6. GFS 20
    7. NASA GEOS5 16
    8. CMA 7

    [b]120 Hours -[/b] GEM sits at the top 9 points clear of the JMA as the GFS really struggled at this point.

    1. GEM 52
    2. JMA 43
    3. ECM 41
    4. NAVGEM 35
    5. UKMO 30
    6. CMA 18
    7. NASA GEOS5 15
    8. GFS 13

    [b]144 Hours -[/b] GEM continued to stay strong in the longer range as it sits 30 points ahead of the ECM in second while NAVGEM performed really badly.

    1. GEM 93
    2. ECM 63
    3. JMA 58
    4. UKMO 48
    5. GFS 41
    6. CMA 28
    7. NAVGEM 8

    [size=5][b]Total Points Gained[/b][/size]

    [b]Best Models Between 24 and 72 Hours - [/b]The ECM is the clear winner here gaining the most points within the first 72 hours followed by the GFS and JMA. The UKMO scored slightly lower than I expected it to.

    1. ECM 97
    2. GFS 73
    3. JMA 66
    4. GEM 65
    5. NAVGEM 65
    6. UKMO 61
    7. NASA GEOS5 61
    8. GME 53
    9. CMA 43

    [b]Best Models Between 96 and 144 Hours -[/b] It's fair to say GEM performed really well here while the ECM and JMA were also strong and tie in points.

    1. GEM 193
    2. ECM 154
    3. JMA 154
    4. UKMO 101
    5. GFS 74
    6. NAVGEM 70
    7. CMA 53

    [size=5][b]Best Overall Models[/b][/size]

    [b]1. GEM 258[/b]
    [b]2. ECM 251[/b]
    [b]3. JMA 220[/b]
    [b]4. UKMO 162[/b]
    [b]5. GFS 147[/b]
    [b]6. NAVGEM 135[/b]
    [b]7. CMA 96[/b]
    [b]8. NASA GEOS5 92[/b]
    [b]9. GME 53[/b]

    [b]Overall -[/b] So GEM is the 2013 winner but a very well deserved second place goes to the ECM. The JMA model also performed well during the experiment. I was surprised to see last years winner the UKMO score slightly less points this time and the GFS had a lot of bad moments. The new models done well but didn't challenge any of the bigger models.
  2. Zenarcher

    February 2015 Forecast

    By Zenarcher,

    Made using the CFS long range model along with the Climate Simulator.

    [b]Rainfall[/b] - Ireland, Wales, South West and North of England, Western and Southern Scotland will see rainfall above average. Ireland especially looks to see the most.

    [attachment=243391:febrain.png]

    [b]Temperature[/b] - Most of the UK and Ireland look average however there are signs of some mixed mild and cold weather about. Overall Southern England and parts of Wales may end up slightly more milder than average.

    [attachment=243393:febtemp.png]

    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b] - Low pressure looks to continue to be a main feature over the UK during February this will give way to some short cold spells and some unsettled wet and windy weather especially for those in the West. High pressure sits in the Atlantic for most of the time and may move over the UK most likely the Southern parts at times and give off some settled and milder weather.

    [attachment=243398:febpressure.png]

    [b]Overall Summary[/b] - February looks to have a mixed bag of weather in store for us. Short cold spells are likely during the month however there are no signs of any prolonged cold weather on the way. Its likely to turn milder and unsettled as well with wet and windy weather affecting the West and Northern parts. High pressure may also give us some short settled spells which will make Southern England slightly milder.

    [b]Too Long Didn't Read Version[/b] - Temperatures mainly average perhaps milder in the far South. Rainfall wet in the West and North average elsewhere. Low pressure mainly in control and high pressure always nearby in the Atlantic.
  3. Zenarcher

    October 2014 Forecast

    By Zenarcher,

    [b]October 2014[/b] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.

    [b]Rainfall[/b] - Northern Ireland and Western Scotland are the two area's that are very likely to see more than average rainfall during October. Meanwhile the rest of the UK looks to see average rainfall amounts.

    [attachment=225563:octoberrain.png]

    [b]Temperature[/b] - All parts of the UK and Ireland can expect above average temperatures.

    [attachment=225564:octobertemp.png]

    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b] - High pressure will be mainly situated out in the Atlantic and at times will visit the UK but most likely only the Southern half. Low pressure is also situated to the far North of the UK and will visit the Northern half at times.

    [attachment=225565:octoberpressure.png]

    [b]Summary[/b] - October 2014 looks to be mainly split between the Northern and Southern half of the UK. The Northern half can expect wetter than average rainfall meanwhile the South will see average rainfall, however all of the UK is expected to see above average temperatures. The Southern half of the UK will mostly be under high pressure coming in from the Atlantic but they can expect some unsettled spells of weather. The Northern half will mainly be under low pressure giving the higher than average rainfall amounts and mostly unsettled weather.

    [attachment=225566:octobersummary.png]
  4. Zenarcher
    [b]Introduction[/b]

    Hi all, since 2011 I've done a yearly weather model experiment to find the best performing one.

    The previous winners were,

    2011 ECM
    2012 UKMO
    2013 GEM

    This time the experiment took part during December 2014. We will be testing the nine weather models listed below,

    European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts = ECM
    Japan Meteorological Agency = JMA
    Met Office = UKMO
    Canadian Weather Service = GEM
    Global Forecast System = GFS
    Global Forecast System Parallel = GFS(P)
    Navy Global Environmental Model = NAVGEM
    Global weather forecast model = GME
    China Meteorological Administration = CMA

    So how does it work? To make it fair all of the models are tested by using their 12z runs from the same day. All they have to do is forecast from 24 to 144 hours for a random location I've chosen the more accurate they are the more points are awarded and bonus points are awarded for how far they forecast out. For example the points awarded for getting something correct at 144 hours is much higher than at 24 hours.

    [b]24 Hours[/b]

    As you would expect its pretty close between them with the ECM and JMA doing the best here.

    [attachment=239658:24hours.png]

    [b]48 Hours[/b]

    The ECM and both the new and old GFS models all performed well here with the UKMO and NAVGEM not too far behind them.

    [attachment=239659:48hours.png]

    This chart below shows the total scores so far and who has performed the best upto the current time scale. The ECM currently leads with both the GFS models behind.

    [attachment=239660:Upto48.png]

    [b]72 Hours[/b]

    The JMA performed the best here while the ECM and UKMO are not too far behind.

    [attachment=239661:72hours.png]

    The latest total scores show the ECM still leading with the JMA and UKMO just behind. The GFS models are still close and last years winner the GEM seems to be performing below expectations.

    [attachment=239662:Upto72.png]

    [b]96 Hours[/b]

    Surprisingly its the old GFS model that tops the scores here and is comfortably ahead of second place. The CMA done a good job as well beating the UKMO and last years winner.

    [attachment=239666:96hours.png]

    The latest total scores show the ECM still leading but the old GFS model has caught up with it and is only a few points behind.

    [attachment=239667:Upto96.png]

    [b]120 Hours[/b]

    The new GFS model done a great job here and performed much better than the older version. The ECM and NAVGEM also performed well at this time range.

    [attachment=239672:120hours.png]

    The top scores up to this point show the ECM still leading with the JMA and the new GFS model behind it. Last years winner GEM is going to have to perform greatly at 144 hours if it wants the top spot again.

    [attachment=239673:Upto120.png]

    [b]144 Hours[/b]

    Once again the new GFS model performs much better here than not only the older version of the GFS model but than the rest as well it's so far ahead in points here. The CMA also done a good job while the ECM performed slightly poorer than expected.

    [attachment=239675:144hours.png]

    The final results are shown below,

    [attachment=239676:FinalResults.png]

    So it's the brand new GFS model that's the winner and it managed to beat the ECM at the last part of the experiment however the ECM still done a great job and was for most of the experiment the best performing model. The old GFS finished in third nearly 100 point behind the new version so this may be evidence than the new GFS model is indeed better. Next the JMA and UKMO finish still near the top and are close in points. NAVGEM finishes in the middle spot while last years winner GEM done terrible this time. CMA and GME finish in the final two spots at the bottom.
  5. Zenarcher

    November 2014 Forecast

    By Zenarcher,

    A few days later than usual but here it is.

    [b]November 2014[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/color]

    [b]Rainfall[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - All of Ireland, Wales and Western parts of England and Scotland look to see above average rainfall while Eastern parts of England and Scotland see average.[/font][/color]

    [attachment=228810:novemberrain.png]

    [b]Temperature[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - All of the UK and Ireland can expect temperatures to be above average for most of November. The South East of England could see temperatures overall reaching a lot higher than average.[/font][/color]

    [attachment=228811:novembertemp.png]

    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - It looks like high pressure will mainly sit to the South East of the UK and low pressure mainly to the North West.[/font][/color]

    [attachment=228813:novemberpressure.png]

    [b]Summary[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - [/font][/color]November 2014 looks to carry on a similar trend from October but with a few changes. Western parts of the UK and all of Ireland can expect above average rainfall and some unsettled weather from time to time due to low pressure mainly in control. The temperatures mainly look above average because of high pressure never being far away. The South East of England can expect a lot higher than average temperatures overall. Because of the high pressure to the South East we can also expect some settled periods where the high pressure extends over all of the UK and Ireland.

    TLDR - Wet in the West average elsewhere. Above average temps everywhere especially in the South East of England.

    [attachment=228814:novembersummary.png]
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