MKN
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Just a few charts to post here....
So there is a quick round up of the 12z run from the GFS havent seen other charts yet but GFS is really looking good tonight.
SNOW-MAN2006
Good post, im not sure what to make of the chart youve made, i suppose its a wait and see scenario
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All im trying to say is some people are going to be dissapointed especaially Northern Ireland i think.
I think scotland has the best chance of something decent this week followed by northern england and the pennines followed then by inland areas further south, the 12z was good for parts of ireland and the south but i feel things are very marginal here so unless things stay the same they could either end up with rain or even worse everything moves further south and no1 gets anything.
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I have just read your latest blog update John and would like to thank you for putting it in terms a newbie like myself can understand.
What he said, this week especially they'l be very useful, look forward to see if you do one for after tonights 18z
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only usually given out for snow about 48 hours ahead, wind about 72 hours ahead so some time to go yet.
I'll look forward to that usually causes a bit of a debate when there released
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Anyone think the metoffice might give us one of those uk risk area pics?? seems ages since i seen the last one.
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Funny enough the 12z almost makes Cork one of the favoured areas for snow with a series of lows skirting our South Coast throughout the week.
Wouldn't it be hilarious if I was the only member to get snow this week
I wouldnt be as nearly as confident as you are snow this coming week if i lived in cork, things will be very marginal for where you are, and rain could be the main feature this week. id wait till tuesday evening before making any judgement on where abouts anywhere in the uk gets snow.
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The charts are great so far and it is all coming together nicely.
Many more upgrades on the way soon
Enjoy the debating of models *passes cookies and hot chocolate around*
Robert
Suprised youve got any cookies and hot chocolate left, the way you keep passing it round to 200+ net-weather members and visitors.
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I'm just wondering once it's all (hopefully)nailed, will NW as happened once before, be splitting threads and regions? It worked very well last time around when the UK was expecting significant snowfall - 2 years ago or so (?)
That was better although only worth doing if countrywide snow is likely, i think we need to wait till tuesday and see how things look then
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Or even a foot?
dont push it
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Uncertainty begins at T_60hrs
The track of the first low aint near decided yet
Completely agree with that each run is unsure of where about the first low goes, it makes its move between 48 - 60hours out, so anything after +48 is suspect, i think wel have to wait til tuesday so we can actually see where it goes to give us a better idea on what kind of weather thursday wil bring.
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Amazing run. Great for all of us
Im not confident with this run, looks more like the first low will now deliver only to the southern extremes, followed by the second low arriving with temps being to high for snow.
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The +96 chart looks good could do with someone posting the precip charts tho
100th post! = time for a beer
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Still looking very good at 60+
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Its practically a carbon copy atm
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I just hope we get very similar show as they 06z within the first 96+ so we can see some consistancy. Hopefully an easterly for next weekend
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I've seen 'I'm getting bored' when there has been weeks of dry, cold weather from people who like cold weather on here, so without doubt some don't share your enthusiasm I think the major attraction to this pattern is the heavy snow rather than the cold itself. You're right in the sense that height rises would rbing some very cold temperatures, a record breaker would be interesting although on a personal note not so handy (alot of destruction in the garden)
I think the heavy snowfall is more interesting as far as im concerned last year was cold and frosty for a fair while with no snow, so its nothing new if that were the outcome, heavy snowfall on the other hand is something i can hardly remember.
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Knocking on my doorstep!.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png
I must say I would rather have the cold spell prolonged at the expense of the snowfall because who knows where this will lead to.
Surely if this easterly developed for the large part of the country, there would be less if any snow with just the east facing coasts doing well from the odd shower??
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Things look far better then, i just hope its resulted in an increase in skiers as i think a bit of investment is definately needed.
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Hows things comparing to this time last year skifreak?
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My bloke lives in central Leicester (flats virtually next to the new arts centre place that's being built). The photos from the worst settled snow in the middle of the night show 2cm, maybe 3 at an absolute push.
Here in Telford we just had the snow on Sunday night/early hours of Monday, which is still more than I expected as most of the weather was coming from the wrong direction for good snowfall for here (in my experience so far).
I live about 1miles away from leicester centre, and we had 2cms.
, Looking at the radar from wednesday morning the further east there were heavy areas of precip altho they were localised. -
2 or 3cm yesterday morning looked great first thing. The slush freezing into an ice rink on the roads between East and West Sussex was a little worrying but then that’s a Council/Highways Agency gritting issue.
Is it just the snow falling that people are so hyped (sorry I mean romantic) about, is it the dusting we had that makes the landscape look all 'old style' wintery, or is it the thick stuff we want to make igloos, snowmen and have snowball fights?
Some people seem content with a few hours giving a light covering but others need to be up to their necks in it for weeks. I just want an excuse not to go into work!!!
I think its a combination and to give those wollys that print siberian freeze etc something to really print about, so about 10" of snow for two days running which then stays around for a couple of weeks would be good for me., ideally id prefer proper seasons where you can expect snow to be on the ground between dec-feb.
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Very nice pic there skifreak, hows things looking at the moment, any1 have any pics?
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Fairly decent cold spell by this countrys standards here, the most snow seen in 3 years (2cm), At the end of the day though it was still a fairly poor cold spell, just goes to highlight how bad british winters are these days
, Looking at the radar from wednesday morning the further east there were heavy areas of precip altho they were localised.
06z model discussions - wet and windy soon?!
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
If that low to the east of scotland became any stronger surely that could bring a reasonable amount of snow in itself. I feel the details of thursday wont be ensured until tuesday evenings 18z. The timing of the rain/snow band could also make a big difference, atm around 0600 is the time and surely that would give us the best possible chance of snowfall further south if only for 2 or 3 hours.