rc28
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Posts posted by rc28
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Also its worth noting that some of the global models as well as the tropical models bend this system back southwards in about 36hrs (by which time it'd be a weak TD i guess) and head back into the gulf of Mexico. No real certainties here however but its an interesting possiblity.
Yes Accuweather mention that;
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Humberto was the fastest developing storm in recorded history, amazing! This taken from TWO WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY FROM THE LATEST DISCUSSION;
"BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED"
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The death toll from hurricane Felix has risen to 100;
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Re the earlier debate about whether felix broke the record for 2 cat5's hitting land in one season.
Accuweather say it's the first time it's happened in recorded history so I think the BBC may have made a mistake;
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headli...&traveler=0
Besides, in 1886 did they even have the equipment to measure if a hrricane was a cat 5 or not?
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http://www.myfoxchicago.com/myfox/MyFox/pa...mp;locale=EN-US
click the link above some very intense lightning
B)
Wow, unbelievable! Chicago and that general area had some amzing storms last week, loads of flooding, tornadoes and severe wind gusts;
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I was just listening to the jamaican radio and they said Dean is now a category 3, they seemed to be quoting an NHC forecast. Have they made a mistake or has Dean really been downgraded to cat3?
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Great close-up high res pic of dean's eye here;
http://www.nowpublic.com/more-pics-hurrica...-crew-members-1
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Maybe it wasn't nonsense at all
He was giving out about how the news station said that "because it was heading more southerly things would be much better for jamaica" which isn't really true as the strongest winds are on the northern side of the eye
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Oh dear, I was just listening to jamaican radio and they were saying that things were looking up as the "eye wont be passing over them", they then said "the eye is the worst part". Someone should let them know the worst is actually north of the eye wall and will pass right over them
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Good morning all...
Tis the best hurricane show that I know of....
http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.asx (should open with windows media player)
Jim is off and running for a couple of hours now.
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Thanks for the link, watching it now. Out of interest who runs that site, do they stream through the night? They're talking a lot of sense about how the jamaican people don't seem to realise the threat they face from Dean because their media isn't getting fussed about it
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For anyone interested in following Dean;
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headli...&traveler=0
Is it looking more likely now that it will hit texas? They really don't need any more rain this Summer, especially after TS Erin.
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Hi jethro, brief response: you're looking at different things. This year, the combination of factors has contributed to an unusually large melt; this is not about AGW or not, simply an observation of the conditions. These things make a lot of difference, as the sea ice level shows, to what happens in parts of the world at certain times. The AGW argument is that, averaged over the globe, changes in solar output or cloud amounts hasn't been sufficient to explain the trend in warming; the data do not correlate. This is not the same as saying they aren't important. The Sun is the source of almost all of the energy in the system at any one time, and small changes in solar output do have a measurable and known effect on temperatures. Same goes for clouds. The AGW argument does not say that these are irrelevant parts of the climate system, but they are not able to account for the global warming which has gone on for 30 years now.
I'd also point out that nobody is saying that this year's ice melt is ipso facto evidence of GW. The variables and uncertainty about the polar climate systems are still very large. But nobody can 'prove' that GW is causing the conditions which lead to the decline in sea ice. Likewise, though, they can't prove it isn't. Instead, we look at the trend in Arctic sea ice coverage over the past thirty years and ask what kinds of forces might be at work to stimulate a trend for which we have no known precedent and which looks, as this stands, to be pretty persistent. Until recently, changes in average North Pacific sea level pressure and changes in warm water influx form the Bering Straits and the Denmark Straits into the Arctic Ocean have been the main contenders for causes of change. But a new paper suggests that changes in Arctic Summer ozone levels may be more important than either of these.
Whatever the culprit, we need to ask why such changes would occur. Warming seas can be attributed more or less directly to GW effects. The same seems a probable answer for the SLP, though this is more speculative. I haven't read the ozone paper yet, so I don't know about that one. Whatever the answer turns out to be, for a long time now, it has been suggested that if the AGW hypethosis were true, one of the earliest signs of major impacts occurring as a consequence would be a decline in Arctic sea ice; this is something which the early climate models suggested. So this is looked at as a possible measure of the level to which the climate system is responding to measured changes. It is easy to see how one gets from here to a sense that the decline looks plausibly like an indicator of major changes just starting to have an effect on the climate system.
Hope this helps,
:)P
Top post, concise and very nicely explained for learners like me
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I came across this link and ,to me, (if i'm reading it right!) this year has already equalled the record minimumt?;
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...urrent.area.jpg
It comes from the NSIDC, are they the most accurate source? I ask because someone above said 2002 was the record minimum but the chart makes it look like 2006 was.
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Laterns wouldnt jump from bristol to london and to norfolk , not a possibility it was those.
I agree and if you look at the footage(from bangor aswell) the lights twinkle very vividly with great clarity, a candle in a balloon wouldn't be so bright nor so vivid and be seen so far away.
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How come all UFO sightnings are distant shots of a small object of some sort with a poor shakey camera?
The footage in the video posted was not a poor shaky camera, it zoomed in quite well IMO but when they're so far away it would be hard to zoom in closer with an average camera;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDEWZq397Lc
I'm not saying it's "aliens" but merely pointing out the footage wasn't bad.
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Haven't seen this anywhere yet but it's not UFO, they are IFO's.
Somebody wrote into a paper and said they'd held a thai party that night and released fire lanterns. These are essentially hot air ballons with a tea light candle, similar to the hoaxes that have been perpetrated over the years. The random motion would be the different eddies of wind up there.
Sorry.
Wow, they must have released a ton of them since they were seen across a massive area at random times, from Bristol, Shropshire, Brighton, Heathrow and London to name the few locations given by those who actually rang up radio 5 at around the same period in the late evening.
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More discussion:
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/...ead/297322.aspx
The reports are very widespread and are similar to what happened in bangor in May;http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzwtSGhTV9o...ated&search
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The ground has really dried up in the last week(around here anyway) so i dont think flooding will be too much of a problem, so far this summer we've avoided all of those flooding systems that affected the UK (except a flash flood event in south dublin in july) so we are lucky.
Meteireann have taken away the "localised flooding" they had in their forecast earlier on;http://www.met.ie/
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Pics and video from a uk storm chaser:
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/...ead/294596.aspx
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Didn't drop below 40c in tenerife last night according to this:
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/...ead.aspx#290124
:blink:
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This is exactly the type of ridiculous thing that gets to me. Can't resist this one:
Madness.
I dont really see a problem with that, our electricity comes from finite resources which are running out so what's wrong with saving some? They dont even mention gw, just the energy crisis so what exactly do you hate about it, they're not making any profit either?
A black screen does use less power than a white screen and many people prefer a darker screen if they're in front of a bright monitor for hours on end.
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Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Oh dear... as has been discussed many times before there is absolutely no link between summer weather and what the winter will be like. Btw what record low temps are you talking about? You mean, the coldest night time temps since last summer?