weather eater
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Posts posted by weather eater
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Thats the problem I feel, everything is so bias. If the pro-AGW's took natural variations into account when making claims, and the AGW sceptics accepted legitimate GHG science when making claims we would probably get somewhere closer to an accepted, realistic theory.
Which is why I don't watch programmes dealing with AGW sceptical or pro AGW programmes, because people minds are easily altered to believe what they watch, and it's a big big shame when we are trying to find out the truth about such potential problems.
I have to pick up on this Stephen because I don't think that’s the case, all the books/materials that I have seen from a AGW perspective have talked about natural variations, it seems to me that it’s only the skeptics that seem to dismiss anything but natural variations. As this is a global cooling thread could someone present some real hard evidence of global cooling, not just of a leveling out or a tiny small drop in global temperatures which could be a natural year in year out fluctuation? Certainly the governments of Russia, America, Canada, Norway, and Denmark don’t seem to think the earth and more particular the Arctic are getting cooler as the squabble over who gets the economic rights in the Arctic seems to indicate. The argument that GW is all a big con by governments to get more money via taxation is really a non starter, this is not to say that this card has not been played but the truth is the real money is in GW being a reality. The other truth here is that we can go round and round in circles talking about this subject but it will change nothing, there is not the will power in the world to change our impact on the environment.
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You also cannot describe global temperatures falling as Global Warming, so what gives? The planet is cooling, so Global Warming is irrelevant in the very context it's used in!
I don’t have an angle one way or another but as yet I've seen no evidence of cooling just a leveling out besides, as I have pointed out many times temperature fluctuations are standard fair for the planets climate but to prove the Earths climate is cooling would require several years of hard evidence of lowering temperatures not just a few years of leveling out that’s not an indication one way or another. A lot has been talked about in terms of agendas by various interested party’s it seems to me that those who have most to gain are those that want paint a picture of every thing being hunky dory in re the world’s climate, that’s where the money is.
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I also thought that programme was top notch, and I am thoroughly looking forward to tonight's episode. Well I would give it another decade or so, and if there is still very little or no warming, then the global warming theory must be reviewed.
It was indeed very good, as for the warming lets put it this way if you warm some water and keep it at roughly the same temperature is it cooling or simmering, a crude analogy but not far off the mark, you cannot describe little or no warming as cooling.
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Given that the flimsiest first-year ice appears to be over the Siberian/Asian side, where there has been a fair amount of melting over the past week, I currently think we're unlikely to match last year's minimum, although we're likely to run it a lot closer than many predicted we would.
Its hardly surprising given the low set last year that this year has been so bad for it not to have been so would have required a seriously cold arctic summer, maybe someone has the figures I would be interested to know what the average temperatures have been in the arctic this summer.
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Dull and overcast again with more rain last night, don't care how cold it gets this winter as long as we see some sunshine, because we have had a pitiful amount this summer
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Looked first thing as if it would be a bright day after early morning mist very autumnal but now as murky as every other day this week blooming miserable.
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Thinish cloud here with sunny breaks but very sticky not pleasant plus point not raining which is a nice.
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Dreich,
I love that word two of my uncles live on Shetland I bet they would describe it the same
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Blimey plenty of Sun around although last time I posted that the cloud rolled in. Didn't last long thankfully. A day dominated by long sunny spells yet despite this the temperatures didn't respond very much and still peaked at just over 21C. Carol K will have to forecast cloudy drizzle days each day if they come out like this.
Too noisy to sit out in the evening round here unless you're very very lucky. If the kids don't get you the five whistling combo boilers will unless your ears can't hear the frequency.
Shows what a difference the hills make, we are only some 30 miles away west of you and the suns never looked like it wants to party today.
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Miserable day to day, dull and cloudy turning to drizzle then light rain if it wasn’t for the temps it would seem more like November than late august. Roll on winter and hope we get something fun. Have not sat outside in the evening all summer.
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Wasn't there a run of mild winters in the 1920s + 30s ? And if so were they comparable to the run we are currently experiencing ? My point being that yes, the last ten winters have been generally mild, but the crucial question that I'm not sure has yet been answered definitively is whether this is a new warmer 'standard' for UK winters going forward, or just the repeat of a pattern which has occurred in the past and therefore we will again emerge from into a period of colder winters ?
10 years more like twenty and although the 20s 30s might have been mild they were not uniformly so and if there is a trend going on at the moment I would suggest it’s to milder and milder winters, I can see no signs of a peak.
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Hmmm, then is it not the greatest danger being from ourselves rather than the changing climate?
The climate will change, as it has done before, drastically at times. The best areas to live on the planet move with the climate changes. Perhaps its something humans have to learn, to not be so selfish and nationalistic, perhaps this time to come is when we learn to work as one globally, perhaps this is our biggest "make or break". Nature around us is doing as it always has, are we capable of adapting with it?
Adapt or die. I agree with what you say. First thing we have to learn is that we cannot blunder round the world using its resources, and destroying eco systems without it having a knock on effect. I want my children to grow up in as good a world if not better than I have, not a gigantic garbage tip constantly at war with itself. I'm still hopeful every winter that something special will happen and it’s been good to see a bit off a different spell this year but I would say to those that think the present warming trend is all part of a natural cycle and that one poor summer and an average autumn is the start of something else that they are fooling themselves, as I said in my earlier post AGW theory suggest cooler spells will be rarer but not impossible.
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Seeing as the climate has and will continue to change over time, then "christmas pudding" can always be used by those who are living in the present time of the Earth. Its all relative, we live in a changing world, which has changed always, we see big changes in our view right now, but a long lived observer who is watching the events of the Earth from birth to end would possibly wonder what we are panicking about.
A big failing of humans is the inability to accept change, in many areas of life. If we accept that climate will change over time, and know that our habits will have to change with it, is it so bad that the Earth will warm by a degree or two? Would it be so bad that we would start to have longer growing seasons? If we are forecast to have more rain along with the warming, is that so bad? If we correct what we think is our contributions to the warming, which are all due to wasteful, and polluting habits, if it has brought to our attention our bad ways regardless if we have anything to truly do with it or not, is that so bad?
As I have said before, right now, we just don't know what the truth is and we probably wont in our life times, jury is still out, we are still collecting evidence, and that's not a five minute job. We also cannot say for definite anything when we have data which is from such short time scales, ie: human history.
We can recognise there is a change, for whatever reason, adapt, not be so doom and gloom and look for positives, such as longer growing seasons (admittedly some places will not benefit, but as we see in the past, locations are continuously moving between habitable and non habitable), see that relatively the climate to those who live in that era will always be the "christmas pudding". Not so long ago in history the UK was uninhabitable, it was covered in ice! And yet further back it had safari type animals roaming over it. BIG changes. Each one a "christmas pudding" to those living in those times.
If only it was as simple as that. You say we would have a longer growing season and more rain; billions of others would have shorter growing seasons less rain drought etc. You cannot look at the UK in isolation. Severe climate change would cause amongst other things massive people migration, history teaches us that this in turn leads to wars but now there are billions more people on the planet its a recipe for global disaster on an unimaginable scale.
What we are really talking about here is whether AGW is affecting the weather to the extent that it's impossible to get the kind of cold synoptics of twenty plus years ago. AGW theory suggests that cold winters will be rarer but not impossible. If the warming has had a greater effect on global weather patterns than scientists have predicted then we are in very great trouble indeed. Ideas that we will be alright because we will have a more pleasant climate are risible we will not be able to hide from a potential global catastrophe.
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At this stage an average or below average month is still possible but these next couple of days are not going to help the prospect of that happening. I know what you mean about September feeling August in previous years, I don't think it did this year either with no particularly high temperatures this time around, whereas last year there was a late heatwave with some very high temperatures on the 21st I think. Maybe my first post was misleading as I haven't changed my location as I've just gone back to Lancaster University, and we have actually had quite a lot of sunshine up here so far in October (not the past couple of days though). Light winds have made it feel warmer in some ways than 2005 felt at the start but we had a few cool nights at the start of this month.
Hi Scorcher I guess it depends on what happens towards the end of the month whether or not we get a prolonged cooler period, if and that’s a big if, the GFS is near the mark in its recent runs then the last third of the month could be much cooler. I don't trust it past about 72hrs but I do have a hunch and to my mind that carries as much weight as FI model outputs. Curious about how different the weather can be in locations not far apart, Lancaster not being a long way from my location but my word we have had a lot of drab days over the last month.
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Listen, I've cocked up forecasting-wise. I've said it's twice, but it's actually a good three times if I include the TEITS event at the end of last winter than produced snow. Winter 2005/6 and now this cool, cool, summer have made me re-think what's happening that's all. I am fairly sure we're in a cooler phase. SF will say it's no more than a temporary blip. I'm not so sure!
Have nicked the above quote from the model thread as its not the place to discuss my reply so I will slap it here.
Think you forget that even the most ardent advocates of AGW theory would not dream of suggesting that temps will go up and up without some lulls or even there being instances of cooler years or the odd cold winter. To ascertain whether that upward curve has peaked or in decline would take several years of evidence. If you gave 100 people with cancer carrots for a year and two of them got better would that mean carrots cure cancer I think not. While enjoying the change of pattern this year and the hope I might get to see some genuinely cold weather this winter I really do think it’s a blip. Even in other mild interludes in known history like the medieval warm period cold winters still occurred and despite the lack of accurate data it is believed by climatologists that temps were warmer then than they are now. That does raise an interesting point how fast did temps rise in that period and why.
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A barmy 20C up up and away goes the CET.
Just had a look at a web cam of Sheffield and its looks sunny, here on the other side of the Pennines while not cold it is dank and misty and distinctly not sunny, a tad lower here no doubt.
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I only thing different I have noticed about this October so far compared to previous Octobers is the lack of wind. It has been relatively calm and rainfall has been on the low side. Also the night-time minima have started to rise- certainly in my area we haven't been particularly close to a frost so far and the next couple of nights look like being very mild. In fact the minimum temperature last night in Manchester was 14C compared to an average of around 8C. That is quite a difference. I think we could well see a repeat over the next 3 or 4 nights which means the CET is only going to be going one way for the next few days. I don't think there has been any indication so far in October that things have been different from recent years temperature-wise. Look at October 2005- there weren't really any exceptional maximum temperatures in that month but the temperatures were consistently above average particularly at night.
You may also have noticed given that you live pretty close to me the lack of sunshine as well and frosts are rare in October and have always been as far as I can remember and that’s 40 plus years, eek! Certainly not windy but that’s not that unusual either. Think the point I was making was that unlike a number or recent Octobers this is not following the same course. October feeling like September and September feeling like August. At times in recent years it has felt like October may as well be a summer month. Of course we have two and a half more weeks two go this month and a lot can happen it would not surprise me if we ended up with an above average month but my instinct tells me we won’t. And if I'm wrong does it really matter, I like to be right but hey sometimes I'm not.
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You're new aren't you?
My take on N-W is as follows...
Getting excited and worked up about what might or might not happen is far more exciting than the actual weather tends to be, particularly nowadays if you're a (rabid) fan of cold weather. If N-W were constrained to raw facts it would all be rather dull. I think it's rather like the mentality that draws people to bull fights and F1 and Indy racing: it's not only the result that matters, it's also the potential for carnage along the way.
Of course I might be wildly out.
Oooh I wouldn't be too sure. You have FI and WiB on your side. Not Thierry Henri and John Terry admittedly, but better than a roll of the Eye's wallpaper I'd say, even a roll full of his well considered scribbles!
Not strictly speaking I made about a thousand posts under a different name but got bored with all the petty squabbles mainly about FI charts that never came to past and some people eluding that they had some sort of other weather predicting knowledge but with no substance to support there ideas, they are quick to crow when it comes off but disappear when they don’t. I call that luck or lack of it. I have moved this year so thought I would come back and for a couple of other reasons. 1. I can't resist it and 2. I really do think we have had an interesting summer and I do think we are in a slightly different pattern than of late and it will be interesting to see what happens. I don’t subscribe to the point of view that we have entered a new phase in the larger sense or that AGW is not happening I very much think it is. I have been surprised by Richard having read a lot of his posts in the past, that he is re-evaluating the issue of AGW; surely the scientific method is to corroborate the evidence then do it again and again. One short period of slightly cooler temps (and that’s debatable) can not verify the veracity or otherwise of AGW. On saying that he's a smart guy and it’s always a pleasure to read his posts.
For the record I think we will fall in just below the CET average for October whatever that is. You can evaluate lots of evidence re the weather but sometimes just trusting your senses can work fairly well. This autumn defiantly has a different feel, what that might mean for the winter ahead is anybody guess and may come to nowt. People need to remember that even if it does feel like an autumn of there youth it does not mean the winter ahead will be cold; most of them in the past were pretty dull as I recall.
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Can anyone tell me what the point of this thread is? Seems to be a bit, err well pointless. I mean I guess the CET for the month will be about average give or take a little bit. Some days will be above average some below, this time of year especially so. Unless of course we are comparing it to the little ice age in which case I guess we are up or against the medieval warm period then we are possibly down, of course without accurate records this is just a guess. But then so is every prediction on this thread, seems to be a lot of bickering and eye scratching for what should be fun guesses.
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Not sure where to put this but here looks as good as any. BBC news article re Al Gores environmental film.
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With the best part of three weeks to go and only making calculations based on notoriously unpredictable at long range weather models, it’s a lottery and no more. Might have a guess myself if there was any chance of winning anything.
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I have a very simple take on this, I can hardly remember a white christmas in my 45 years so my expectation of there being on this year is next to zero. On saying that now I'm living in the NW my chances are slightly higher but not much I suspect
Global Cooling
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Nobody on either side of the argument would deny that warming has occurred the debate is by what mechanism. Even if we were to accept that the warming has leveled out for the last 10 years how do we know if this leveling out has occurred in the teeth of a natural downward trend that without human interference would have seen lower global temperatures as opposed to static ones for that period. Given what we know about greenhouses gasses it would seem to me to be highly unlikely that we are not having an impact. For those that think our impact can only be slight look at what happened re CFCs and the hole in the ozone layer and the impact that a ban on CFCs has had.