[18z Model discussion - snow but how much and where?]

GRRR it's 200 miles too far south!!!

At least it's further N than the 12z though.

Hopefully the trend has reversed eh? Even still I've just about given up on seeing any significant snow next week here. The south always gets it anyway.

[18z Model discussion - snow but how much and where?]

Well what do you know, the low is marginally further north at T+60.

[18z Model discussion - snow but how much and where?]

All gone wrong

(this chart is fake)

You had me fooled for a minute there.

[18z Model discussion - snow but how much and where?]

If the trend means anything at all, then the Wednesday/Thursday feature is going to end up missing the UK all together, and only bring the precipitation to the Southern fringes of the UK. I can't decide whether this is a good thing, as although we will be exposed to the cold easterly air quicker, and for a longer duration, bringing the odd snow shower for eastern parts, I fear that when the next system rolls in off the Atlantic with a more Northerly track, it will just smash through the cold air, and give rain to lower levels.

Of course I shall wait for the run before drawing any conclusions.

[12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...]

Another interesting set of model runs, and still a lot of uncertainty by T+72. I was hoping that the 12Z ECM would come more into line with GFS and UKMO this evening, but its not to be. This is beginning to concern me now to be honest. We will have to wait for the ECM ensembles to see where it stands. In the shorter term though, the cold spell has been upgraded, with the first half of the week looking cold, with some wintry showers near northern and eastern coasts and sharp overnight frosts.

If I remember rightly, the ECM 00z operational was a big mild outlier. I think it's quite likely that 12z operational will be following suit, since it likes mimicking the 00z so much.

Cue tumbleweed.

[February CET]

-1.1C