jayb1989
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Posts posted by jayb1989
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Dire output for coldies this morning
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Really is shaping up to be a very mild period as we head towards new year according to the ECM. The flowers will be thinking it’s spring time. Think we are more likely to be reaching for t-shirts and shorts than gloves and scarf.
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1 minute ago, fromey said:
Don’t thinks a SSW is going to happen anytime soon according to DR Simon!
Really not a good sign, will be into February with the sun getting stronger before we know it. Leaves little time for a decent cold spell that isn’t over in a couple of days.
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MOGREPS 1.5m temp chart. A few members have parts of the south east nudging the 14 degrees mark. Impressive for the time of year.
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Some solid consistency now for a mild new year. Well above the average for the time of year. Should feel spring like in any sun.
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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
More likely to see desert sand on the ground than snow judged by this chart..
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6 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:
Ehhh not sure on that one.. depending what happens. Might be cold and dry.. we will see
We obviously have a different opinion on what is classed as cold.
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Just now, Hammer50 said:
So bbc news weather says mild Xmas day who is right.
Essex will be mild for Christmas day, that is almost certain.
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8 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:
Big warm up for New Year on the GFS tonight which Marco Petagna hinted at last night
If this was to verify, would bring spring like conditions in, would be rather pleasent for the time of year.
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6 minutes ago, supernova said:
Mr Murr also said despite the models struggling with this sort of evolution our latest chase was heading speedily towards a March '13 redux and likely to pan out just dandy (or words to that effect, on Twitter). He might still be right (hope so) but I very much doubt it based on current output. Am stubbornly refusing to wake up and smell the coffee for another 24 hours despite being acutely aware I'm likely to be drinking double expresso with Tiramisu and coffee liqueur to finish this time tomorrow, especially looking at the latest update from GFS which puts us even further out the game before surrendering completely to the perennially Grinchy Azores high. Stupid UK weather and even stupider models. It's like the prettiest girl at work spending a whole week begging you for a lift to the Christmas party to discover she really only wanted a cheap ride so she could snog the smug hunk from marketing while you were left eating curled up prawn sarnies with big Maureen from accounts (no offence Maureen).
Unfortunately, even some trained meteorologists suffer from confirmation bias when it comes to reading models. Let alone the hundreds on here who will cherry pick data to show a solution they want. It’s very difficult to stop emotion getting invovled.
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Well, it’s been an interesting watch over the last few days. Still a chance of some snow in certain places with some transient cold around boxing day.
However, if like me you don’t find that exciting and are after a proper cold spell, where snow falls and hangs around for 3 or 4 days and temperatures don’t rise above freezing, you might as well forget it anytime soon.
Hopefully we can get something more positive as we move into January.
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:
Atlantic is stalling by day 10 on EC det,IMO.
We would see HP pushing further North thereafter...
Academic as it will look different tomorrow..
Back to day 10 cold hunting.. love it.
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Just now, Alderc said:
Love it when this line gets broken out! Maybe it was just WAAAAAY over ramped in the first place?
I think people always getting carried away when the charts show cold weather, but to get cold and snowy weather on the far south coast is going to take a special event.
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2 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Where’s all this cold weather then? I can’t even see a frost on the models for this part of world in the next week. One month of winter done, hopefully the rest carries on like this. Models showing showing remarkably mild temps in the next few days, might even see 13-14C
Yeah but always going to be unlikely in your neck of woods.
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39 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
My claim was for Christmas day. The mean has NOT brought cold further south for Christmas day, in fact, even northern areas are looking iffy for the big day itself now.
I made no claims about boxing day onwards, but even then the far south looks iffy.
That would be a good result for most the country, far south is always going to struggle.
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5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Excuse me. I'm not just a random person on internet mate 85% of people in the peak rely on me for snow warnings.
Really must be true that In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king!
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7 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:
Ouch.
London EPS meteogram shows marked switch to milder around Christmas, with much smaller spread. After Christmas still large spread, but, it must be said, slightly less cold as well.
Not a great set for the south east, looking like a toasty christmas.
Let’s see if that flips tomorrow.
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I don’t post much, but you have to laugh at how brutal cold chases tend to end for the most of the UK.
It’s times like this that really remind you that to bring proper cold conditions over the UK, which stick around for a period of time, literally everything has to fall into place.
7 days ago we were worried the high pressure was going to sit too close to us to bring in the real cold air, now it’s gone too far north .
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Snow starved Midlander dropping in to see you all enjoying the snow. Looks like most the South East is getting burried! Have fun guys!
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4 minutes ago, chris55 said:
I'd be very surprised if the Atlantic sweeps away the cold as is being modelled in the 7-10 day range.
ECM 120-168 just shows how that deep area of Low pressure approaching just fizzles in the face of the beast!
120....here she comes
168 hardly makes any eastward progression and weakens
IMO this is going to be the story of the next few days of modelling with a general trend to keep the cold in place with these Atlantic fronts potentially brining boundary snowfall rather than a full on warm up.
There is way too much energy coming out of Canada with the extreme cold for it not to unfortunately.
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2 hours ago, Weathizard said:
And the far south looks like missing out again, yawn. So many false dawns this winter.
At least our vaccine supply will be unhindered I suppose.
Seen quite a few people on here mention that it’s always been borderline for the very south of the country. This has always been the case through the majority of model outputs we have seen. However, they are instantly shot downs as trolls?
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Has been quite the trend for the Atlantic to really fire up towards the end of next week on the last number of runs. I’m guessing it’s mainly down to the extreme cold filtering down through the US that is likely driving a stronger jet stream? Disappointing in terms of getting a prolonged cold spell, but i guess we can’t really complain with a decent 4/5 day cold spell.
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1 minute ago, Kentspur said:
Def no boom for the snowless southern half of the country, pattern 200miles too far north unfortunately its the same areas benefiting again by the looks of things story of the winter , well enjoy Northern folks
Yep looks a wet one in the south east.. starting to see some consistency now withing the 12z runs to model the low further north. Some northern parts are going to get buried.
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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:
Here comes the warm sector for the South East., Frozen solid in Scotland thou, and the Atlantic is sliding by.Would be quite toasty in the South East.. drawing in air from the Med.
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by jayb1989
Still a chance of the odd transitional cold spell, but those of us after sonething half decent like 2010 might as well draw stumps. See you all next winter.