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Tristrame

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Posts posted by Tristrame

    Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, TQWX said:

    I thought I could here some thunder and there is activity but a bit far away, the sounds may have been something else. Getting closer though. This cam looks east into North Lyme Bay so something may pop up on there.

    http://www.camsecure.co.uk/Camsecure3/broad.html

    Lyme Bay.jpg

    For reference by the way, the purple line in those is the 12 mile fisheries UK waters border so those strikes are less than 10 miles out to sea so should have been well audible from the shore

    • Like 2

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

    No wonder met office downgraded their outlook. Just hope they don't get it right for once lol

    Tbh,they haven't a clue

    Forecasts from met services  beyond 7 days are a waste of time due to being right as often as the proverbial stopped clock

    Learned this year that less is known about strat influence than ever and less still about other teleconnections 

    Certainly not enough for forecasts

    Even Roger Smith's seasonal forecast depended on winds from the north or east and MUCH colder than this last week

    Its not going to happen as planned but of course could still in the wasteland dregs of winter

    So yeah a lot of dishwashing I think

    Back to science and 7 days out only we go (or anyone with sense goes and I don't mean disrespect there because I'll still look too)

     

    • Like 3

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

    Agreed.

    Tuesday is NOT a classic channel low imho. For a "classic", ideally, there needs to be entrenched cold over a few days before, a v cold continent, a v cold UK, with easterly or NE winds. And as the Low approaches it has nowhere to go but run along the Channel as the HP to its East/NE wont budge.

    A number of these factors are not present today or forecast to be, over next 2 days.

    To add weight to my view (by all means challenge me) forecast temps for Amsterdam, Brussels and Paris are between 4-6c. Not really cold. So any Easterly or SE from that Low wont really have a v cold source.

    Nail on the head there

    Its really only a circulation of the existing not that cold air

    You could describe it as a recycled returning northwesterly

    A channel low(or any low) is not a snowmaker unless it's hitting air that has all the parameters for snow

    Not given up on February before it's started though

    Lots of excitement to come I'd imagine now that strat warm has finally reached or is about to the trop 

    Or at any rate we'll at least know at last

    • Like 3

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

    I think I’m about to blow! Iv just scanned through about 6 pages of waffle on here after work I honestly don’t no whether I’m coming or going tbh! One minute is oh it’s dyer next one is quite snowy then easterly setting up quite honestly I’m lost right now

    I think the only solution to that is to set an exam for posters on weather knowledge

    Scores under 50% send them off to a codology thread

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tristrame

    NWS have the GFS and Gefs as outliers compared to the rest of the guidance on the esb storm in their forecast for the new York area late weekend

    Here's what they say :

     

    "This has led to a consensus of a colder solution and a track of the low further south and east than the previous forecast package. Dprog/dt on the recent deterministic runs shows this general trend well except the GFS/gefs which appear to be an outlier solution and remain much warmer than the rest of the guidance. The main energy with the southern stream wave will be coming onshore today. There is also sensitivity as noted above with the how much the polar jet interacts and phases with the southern stream, so changes in track forecast are still possible in subsequent forecast packages."

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 3

    Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tristrame

    16 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

    Yeah Nick well aware, re the accum charts, but posted merely to show that nearly whole of UK would see some snow falling at some point from the EC run. To be fair in March they weren't that far off the mark where I live but that was exceptional circumstances.

    Screenshot_20190117-073952_Chrome.jpg

    I'm an hour south of Dublin,just 2 miles from the coast and only 162ft asl

    Last march when Emma was done we had over 2 feet of level snow and roads blocked by 8ft drifts so that kind of total here isn't impossible,I've seen it a few times in my lifetime 

    • Like 9

    Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tristrame

    10 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

    Apologies in advanced for the newbie question:

    If the lobe over Canada does reach the UK, what weather would that bring? Or is that impossible to answer? 

    Too much modification on a long transatlantic journey over relatively warm water would mean rain probably away from Scottish and northern hills

    Unless said low passed south of Ireland,in which case less modified colder air would follow from a more north northeasterly quadrant in its wake

    Then you'd be talking winter

     

    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, jamieson87 said:

    The second chart here, what is this showing? Ground temperature? 

    It’s showing temperatures up at 850 hpa height or roughly 5000ft above sea level

    -10 at this time of year in strong sunshine might equate to zero or 1 c on the ground

    its also significant as it passes over the sea

    the colder it is relative to sea surface temps and the longer the track the more and the heavier showers you get

    You’d need a minimum of a 13c difference and preferably greater than a 50 miles sea track 

    • Like 3

    Buying new weather station

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted

    I’ve a cue,a vantage pro 2 and now a brand new wmr 300

    I’m really liking the wmr so far

    its performing every bit as good as the Davis and looks the exact same

    In 14 years of having the vantage pro 2,I’ve never had to call customer service

    In the photo the anemometer is attached to the remains of an old oak tree (brought down by Storm Darwin a few years ago :/)

    No signal issues so far (as some online reviews seem to mention)

    I’ll keep you posted

    703E0707-53E3-4F17-BA58-414BADB88904.png

    • Like 1

    Davis Vantage Pro 2 problems

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted

    Well I ordered the part and incredibly it's been in Heathrows parcel depot for the past 48 hrs without moving 

    Its been scanned twice there first at 1am wenesday night and again at 1241 today 

     

    The Irish post office could see todays scan but it's not on Royal mails track and trace

    Typical

    Its not India it's going to but it feels like it

    Davis Vantage Pro 2 problems

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted

    Hi Folks 

     

    Ive had one of these for years 

    However I changed the battery in the ISS today as I was only getting signal in sunlight 

    Trouble is I'm not getting any signal  at all on battery power

    Inside under the battery the green led only flashes when I set the channel ID to ch 4- the test channel 

    The console receives nothing when set to whichever ch number I've tried 

    No light on 1 2 or 3 (there are only 4) See attached pic

    They're all off in the pic

     

    Anyone know what I'm doing wrong? I'm hoping it's something simple

    I've  actually forgotten  the original set up from a few years ago as I've never had to change anything 

     

    Thanks in advance for you help

    IMG_1009.JPG

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    My memory might be playing tricks here. However I do seem to recall back in the 1980s how E,lys often started dry, frosty and snow was never immediate. I am still however looking to see whether the cold pooling can be upgraded because even within +72 hrs this can occur in the output.

    I do agree with Steve M the longer term prospects have improved in this mornings 0Zs.

    Aye a week of dry flurries here in February 1991

    Then the Irish Sea streamers started dumping a good 8 inches in my area of Eastern Ireland 

    we're way further west than you guys obviously but do well in very cold easterlies or northeasterlies  due to the often amazing shower production on the Irish Sea

     

    • Like 1
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