kentish_sally

occasional lightning and thunder. some rain earlier. Not to bad for a storm but hasnt been as big as it was hyped to be

Paul S, You mention UK not having doplar - Do you think thats something that will ever be introduced in the UK or due to the small size of the country it would be deemed not nessecery?

So there is a possibility of another storm for North Kent then? Noticing the met-o radar (and paul will remind me about nw radar again im sure hehe) had a new cell begining to move into the Channel in roughly the same area as before made me check here wondering if that was another likelyhood to repeat earlier this evenings brief sharp storm. Even 2 neighbour's had to call the fire service to pump water out of their house. Oh to have a camara! :lol:

Storm across North Kent 30-45minutes ago. Torrential monsoon like rain, IC Lightning and thunder. Localised flooding now easing

Just heard from the other half in Strood, Medway. Bright pinky purple flickering lightning and loud rolling thunder with torrentially heavy rain.. Almost monsoon like he says. Has had water coming in through the back door. But weathers now cleared up. Even had the fire service down his road and i can hear numerous emergancy vehicles travelling up the bypass that crosses over Three Crutches Lane.

Heavy thundery rain here and im pleased to announce i also hear thunder. Very Dark too. I think i seen the odd flicker of lightning to. Higham, North Kent

No.. :lol: Had some Thundery rain 10 minutes ago, Probably the back end of the cell that built over the North Downs you mentioned Paul. Quiet now and overcast.

Met-office radar showing a rain pushing in from the continent. Channel -> South Kent coastline. Expect it will die out as it moves over land, But Anyone in that area seeing whats happening? Light rain just passed through here, nothing else to report of

Hello and good afternoon Paul, The TORRO post was purely for information to be honest for the people who may have not seen it. A Convective Discussion is only as good as that - a discussion. It would seem Torro themselves are not to happy with the setup for more substaintualy severe and / or tornadic weather which as you quite rightly say, The Estofex forecast would hold more bearing. As for the cap, is that just due to high CAPE values and not much else ? LI didnt help for the lifting today, So what could cause the erosion? Cooling air temps as we go into the evening and overnight?

Torro released a convective discussion recently Central Eire Southern N Ireland Wales Midlands N England E Anglia Central-southern England South-east England THREATS Isolated tornadoes, gusty winds, heavy rain, cloud-ground lightning and hail (around 1cm in places). http://www.torro.org.uk/torro/forecast/index.php

Hmm i guess it isnt as unusual as i thought to hit or exceed 900kj. Oops :blush:

Has the CAPE Values remained at 900kj or more though? And actually stayed right up to the day of the event in itself?

I dont wish to dampen your parade and "pee on your thread" so to speak, But which lightning detector's are you using and also how reliable are they? Due to the limited technology of some of the lightning detectors available - many on the free service - the majority can sometimes give off some false readings (anaprops i belive they are called). Please do not see this as a dig at your idea of a thread, i like the idea of lightning tracking but it is worth noting some detectors can give off a false strike *Edit: why do iget the feeling we will see Paul in this thread with a quick advert about NW-Xtra lightning? *sniggers*

Good Afternoon all. Nothing set up for the South East today it seems but on the past few GFS run's Tuesday has become a tantelising prospect for rather widespread storms. Widespread heavy rain for most of England and pretty much ALL of southern England Cape / LI giving off some nice high values, Do i spy 900kj of CAPE as the general potential energy? Overall storm risk of 50-55%. BUT! I really do expect a downgrade (900kj of CAPE - rather unusual for UK so i think GFS is overplaying this idea hence my suggestion of downgrade) for some areas given that it is still 60z away and alot can still change. A small trend for this on the brightside though as it has kind of stuck around for a tad. The rest of todays run's and up to the 06z tomorrow morning might make me feel more confident on the prospects - even if they do not bode well for Northern Kent.

No, I'm also trying an all nighter for this but im not letting my hopes get to much. As enticing as meto radar is becoming from the SE, i keep refering back to the netweather strikestar and it soooo looks like its moving off SW to my location. I hear light rain and thats the most activity its been tonight Biddie, which radar are you using?

Ty Tamara B) Strikestar seems to have the majority of it to far SW of me and looks like that will be the trend. Shame really, its an impressive cell. Thunderstorm ID W-1656 detected 23:33 Storm location bearing 109.8 dgr distance 268 mi Last recorded activity 01:58 Intensity class Severe Intensity trend Intensifying Current strikerate 42/minute Peak strikerate 93/minute Total recorded strikes 6484 Cloud-Ground strikes 3264 - 50.34% Intracloud strikes 3220 - 49.66% -- Strike type distribution -- Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 2099 - 32.37% Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 1165 - 17.97% Positive Intracloud [+IC] 3128 - 48.24% Negative Intracloud [-IC] 92 - 1.42% http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm Who ever does recieve it though - Enjoy! it does look a biggie

Tamara, is it to early to ask which way the storms look to be heading? (Away from radars etc)

Now why do i get the funny feeling that strikestar image posted is going to have the storms ending up in a landfall base of North of IOW or in that general location and bypass most of NE Kent suddenly?

If GFS Was to be believed, then it makes sence how the SE storm risk is low compared to as you correctly stated, North of I.O.W - Cape and LI arent given for SE in the 18z run compared to IOW. Shame but we arent even into summer fully :lol:

So it might even be worth sleeping on my keyboard to keep a watch on the developments with curtains and windows open?! Hello Paul, Thank you for information about the radar i shall have a look :lol: And a nice website + forum you have. Good work B) Pleasure to be here !

Thats an intresting little scenerio there Nick F - It's a shame that cannot be guarenteed even under 12hrs away. I remember following a storm on radar all night and in the last update, a storm cell was 30mins away on radar, yet shifted north away from here. Unpredictable little fella's! Looks like Met-Office and this board shall be my bed for the night. Some nice storm cells appearing on MET-O viewing across france to! Let's hope they can drift more westerly

A sign of things to come? http://www.buienradar.nl/

Hello and thank you for the welcome village. I understand the Lifted Index (the parcel of air) and CAPE values required for storm initiation, I was more thinking in an idealist situation that the CAPE and also L.I was ideal within the possible events tonight moving up from France (and hopefully forming Kent's first imports i belive) what would it take for the precipitation and / or storms to be dragged into the South East? The only thing i could see is winds from the SE or ESE'ly direction from that of the surface low blowing them (trough perhaps?) into the forementioned regions But is this likely? Im also two train stations north of you, The quaint and quiet side of Higham

Hello everyone! This is the first time i have took the courage to post, But the surface low - Does that mean for the storm potential to grow within the SE and E Anglian regions the low would have to be situated off of the south / kent coast to get a more SE'ly wind direction to blow any storms further in land? Also where is the system positioned in actuality?