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Sunny Kent
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Posts posted by Sunny Kent
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I hope this is not a daft question, but the GFS 12Z 850mb/sea level run suggests a rapid decline of the cold that has been parked over Canada and the north US for ages. Is this significant?
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As a lurker here for several years and only occasionally posting - can I say a 'big thanks' to posters Ian, Snowballz, Gibby and Nick for their informative and welcome input into this forum. It has certainly become a really authoritive voice. Long may it continue!
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As a real novice here, I just don't understand how 6 hours can make all the difference. Last night most posters were bullish and this morning you'd think the whole think had be cancelled. Just doesn't make sense to the casual reader.
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A newbie question. With current uncertainty and Ian stressing an SSW event effect (if any) not being digested by the models what is the realistic FI? Namely how far are the models reliable?
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Ian Ferguson's forecast - I've rarely seen a local forecast of that quality. Where I live the local forecast is really Mickey Mouse drivel!
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Sorry if this is the wrong place to ask - but precisely where is the latest EC32 viewable that Ian mentioned in his excellent piece? Thanks.
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@fergieweather - as a total novice that has been lurking around NW for years (but rarely contribute as I've little to offer) it is really good for those of us who have little idea to get such quality input. Much appreciated Ian.
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Now the cloud is creeping in how far will the temperature rise? Above freezing again? Poxy crappy cloud!
Oh well it was nice while it lasted early
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But it has now gone up since that crappy cloud has moved in I bet...manston is currently reading -6 dp -11 wth cloud pretty amazing..
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Incredible Temps at the moment
Southend nearing -3c / -7c
Manston is at -4c / -9c
Wattisham is -3c / -10c
This all with sun out - Cloud is building out to my east now so temps might rise a little bit when that comes over
Round objects - why can't it take a hike. The best opportunity we've had to get record lows for years and it gets poxy cloudy. Can't win ...
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As mentioned earlier that incoming cloud off of the North Sea might do nothing other than stop a sharp fall in the temperature. Acting like a blanket.
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Won't that cloud that is developing simply raise the temperature again as cloud generally seems to? Or at least prevent the 'super cold'.
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Looking at your photo, clearly some Faversham residents are lovely.lol Faversham is lovely, just a shame that not all it's residents match
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So it has increased your ASL to 7.801 metres LOL!just braved the cold, my bin lid measured 4" 10cm ish
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About 10 - 15 cms level snow. Some drifts. Air temp about -2c. So no dripping. Hopefully far enough east to get cold off the continent. Will it stay that way does any expert know?
Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Sunny Kent
I've lurked about in NW for years following discussions and rarely (if ever) commented. Do appreciate the excellent posts by knowledgeable members. Tamara's technical analysis is always a good read, although sometimes complex. In this regard could I ask her if she is able to do a less technical summary at the end - rather like that Gibby does? This would be useful for those (like me) who havn't the scientific grasp others have!
Meantime happy Christmas to all. Do sometimes keep off the models over the period and enjoy a tipple