liquidjp
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Posts posted by liquidjp
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Are the systems just coming off the coast of africa likely to be worth noting or is it too early to tell, the SST around there seems warm enough for development.
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someone earlier was saying the differential with the tides is only 1 or two feet. If that's right then it makes not a lot of difference really. May not be right though.
according to the tide forcast the tidal range is really low so the surge is going to do some major damage whenever it hits.
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THe latest from good old 42361
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 56.3 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.58 in
The wind speed has massivle dropped, significatly (I think) wind direction has also changed... could the eye, such that it is be passing over?
edit: no pressure isn't falling
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Without wanting to personify Ike further, it's almost as if he is acting like an inpetulant child just to p*** off the NHC!!
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Welll station 42316 has either blown away, or lost power with no change in any reported figures over the last hour ... which I doubt it coincidence :lol:
Next in the firing line is 42047
Whats the lag time on that station? have got results as of 3pm BST
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RE: high and low tides the tidal range at Gaveston and surrounding costline is only about 1-2ft maximum so even a hit at low tide would not offer much relief from the surge.
(meant to post ages ago but building just got lightninged!)
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no!!! carry on posting! am sure your contribution is as good as everyone elses.
Ah contraire I still have to look up loads of the abreviations!!
But given we have sustained winds of 108!!kts now at our little buoy (bit oil rig) are we expencting the NHC up up the forcast?
Why are the NHC giving forcasts/advisories in 3 time zones, am sure they don't usually do?
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Ummm that is a long time ago, if you read the bottom of the last page you will see it is now up to 99.1knots.
Yes i know i know i had forgot to click submit... I'll go back to lurking and frantically hitting F5;)
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Thats a stronger wind than I think anybody would have thought opplevelse.
It seems that something has happened to allow these strong winds to get closer to the surface (Maybe the collapse of the inner core).
This is bad news and might make Ike a CAT 3 at 95Kt. Bloody hell. Makes my estimate of a CAT 1 look way off.
09125:45 am NNE95.2-----28.76-80.6-75.2
Just short of Cat 3 75 mins ago, thou this was at elevation of 122 meters.
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Bouy 42001 down to 995.6 falling rapidly. Sustained at 40knts 71kmh and gusting to 48knts (90kmh) Wave Height 7.4m or nearly 25ft! and Ike is still at least 6hrs away from it
How strong are these thing, could it take a direct hit from a severly misbehaving hurricane and still transmit?
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The mountains to the west of Havanna arne't going to do it a lot of good if it goes straight over them, but if Ike tracks slightly north through the gap...and dirctly over Havanna, it will probobally be in a healthier state. What are we talking about 4-5 hours overland?
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The NHC are essentially saying they really have little idea where this is going as of an hour or so ago. Certainly makes for "fun" times along the GOM...
IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAYFORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
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So, is he now bound for the yucatan peninsula and no more land until the U.S. landfall. If he still travels at the clip he's forecast then that'll be an interesting weekend's viewing for Calrisian and I :lol: .
How often can the U.S. afford to keep evacuating the coastal strip??? How many 'mother of all storms' can Naggin call before he is the 'boy that cried wolf' in the eyes of his people??? How many people won't budge this time because of Gustav's near 'no-show'
Sooooo many questions
Indeed... where are the models taking him? further west and through 'the gap' or NW hugging the cuba coast and back over Cuba? The former is better for Havana I guess.
The evacuation question is a biggie, and am sure many are wrongly accusing naggin of now having egg on his face after the near miss with Gustav. I think many will not shift out a second time in one season, which could be very bad news is Ike tracks back eastwards.
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they are saying now that they think the storm will stall as it comes inland the rain that that will produce will be terrible someone on fox mentioned the rainfall could reach 2ft WOW what with the storm surge and the rainfall its going to be devastating This storm also seems to be producing a large amount of tornadoes. Poor things are getting a battering from mother nature. So who thinks those levies are going to hold?
kaz
Bit off topic as it's not net.levees
but i think that given that NO didn't take the full hit of hurricane force winds the levees will hold, just, but there may be some overtopping, and certainly some flooding in central NO due to heavy rain.The downside of this is that when people return to a larely intact city (a good thing) they will question why they evacuated and may not be so eager too next time (a bad thing).
There is a lot of tornado activity east of NO at the moment, if Gus is taking a shifty to the west this could be bad news.
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Radar here shows tornado activity.
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Cheers for that, yep Floridians must be keeping a keen eye I expect
sorry this is off topic a bit but interesting, my curiosity was piqued so i did a bit of research, it seems if the storms are of comparable strengh they orbit each other something called the fujiwahra effect.
That would be something amazing to see if it were two major hurricanes (well from a long distance away anyhow!)
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Kold, I see TD8 is now formed, and scheduled to take a curve westwards in a few days. have two hurricanes ever merged into a single storm?
I think this last happened when Wilma and Alpha (a TS) collided in 2005, the beast that was Wilma absorbed what was left of Alpha with barely a burp!
But if Gustav took it's most easerly course, and Eight it's most westerly...i would not like to be in North Florida now...
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watching fox news!
it is a cat 2!
NHC updated 16:24 BST says cat 2 as well, i take it this is faster than expected?
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The latest image this morning shows the eyewall seems to have closed up, certainly not as clear at it was yesterday, is this a sign of weakening, ERC, or just one of those things... EDIT: The first then... thanks Iceberg
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The remnants of Melissa redeveloping are slim but there still is a chance if the shear eases a little.
Quick query, if Melissa did re-develop would it still be called Melissa? Has this ever happened?
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Well, kinda thought this looked a bit tasty. Long ways to go yet but I still think we may see a '3 cat5 landfall' season (if not more!).
Ingrid it is.. well not yet but am i thinking it is a matter of time...
Does this system have something of the Dean/Felix about it?
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P.S forgot to add it looks very good
True... shame it's gonna be called Humberto!!! :o
but i think that given that NO didn't take the full hit of hurricane force winds the levees will hold, just, but there may be some overtopping, and certainly some flooding in central NO due to heavy rain.
Tropical Storm Laura
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
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Could be...
depending on how far north into the jet it goes, we could be looking at some very "summery" weather this weekend...