Cold Winter
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Posts posted by Cold Winter
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Been following the lead-up to this over the last few days and it certainly seems like there’s a high possibility of severe weather tonight and tomorrow.
NWS seem to think the biggest tornado threat today is from 11pm onwards UK time. Given the threat has increased a bit to the south, is there a chance things could kick off a bit earlier? At work early tomorrow but hoping to catch some of the livestreams later tonight.
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Had a covering here from the showers that have passed through. One appeared to stay to the south of me on radar but looked out and it was snowing - think the southerly wind direction tonight helped it make the last mile or so! Lamp post watching beat radar tonight
Just now, Aiden2012 said:Do we think I’ll cross or will that be it ?
It’s modelled to get across. A lot of rain events do this don’t they - ie appear to stall at the Pennines then eventually the whole lot gets across, although usually weaker here than over in the west.
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Still -2.5c here despite the radar suggesting the first batch of precipitation is approaching… suspect it will either fizzle out or we won’t see much at the surface.
Edit: Yep, fizzling out.
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Just now, Harsh Climate said:
Looks like the system is going to reinvigorate over more eastern parts of our region, but like many say will be down to nowcasting and could be the odd surprise in the mix
To be fair the area over Leeds at the moment that is currently intensifying and growing slightly is modelled on the UKV for the next few hours to move over East Yorkshire.
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UKV 15z snow depth chart for tomorrow morning. It thinks the Wolds will do best tonight which would be unusual for something coming from the west - I’d have put money on the Leeds/Huddersfield areas getting the biggest total.
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-1.6c the maximum today after a low of -5.9c overnight with some patchy snow cover remaining from earlier in the week.
Models looking interesting for tonight, as is the current radar. I can see that Arpege is on board for some slight accumulations… in my opinion if Arpege says yes then it suggests somewhere is going to see lying snow. The only question now is where - ie bit further north or south? Down to nowcasting.
I’m expecting the area over north Wales is going to intensify a bit so all of Yorkshire should be in with a chance
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About 20 minutes ago just north of Malton.
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2 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:
Explosive development just to my west
Looked very interesting a few minutes ago on radar
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Very windy here now and just over 30c - almost as odd as the hot breeze during the heatwave in July last year
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30c here and a strong, warm breeze. Current sky…
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25 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:
It looks like the north york moors could be the hotspot for a severe storm today.
Are we thinking the moors high up (300m) or low lying flat areas just to the west or south like pickering/york is more favourable for severe weather??
I usually find with lightning frquences storms seem to become more electrical active as hey hit the moors, seen that a lot in the past with storms that have passed west yorkshire into the north yorkhire dales!
I live in Malton but work just over the other side of the moors. I’ve been caught in some really nasty storms in the past while up there.
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Right in the middle of all the various outlooks/warnings I’ve seen for today. Already a hot and sunny 26c
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14 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:
It is now raining here
Similar here. Need evaporative cooling and night time to have any chance. The best time for us in the east was always going to be after dark this evening, we might be luckier then as the low pulls away and wind direction changes.
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2.0c here with drizzle and occasional sleet.
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Temp rising here, up to 0.8c, and wind picking up too. Expecting some snow initially and then probably sleet until after dark tonight for my location.
I’m sure those of you in South & West Yorkshire and the western half of N Yorks are going to have a grand day - enjoy!-
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4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
Who the vrxap wrote this
Thursday:
Cold and frosty initially, perhaps dry first thing before mix of snow, sleet and rain spreads northeastwards through the morning, with wintry outbreaks through the afternoon and overnight. Maximum temperature 4 °C.
I guess it’s true as the text is for all of Yorkshire, including the coast, but yes - would have thought more of an emphasis on significant snow over high ground might be relevant!
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A few flakes in the breeze here now but really nothing much so far. Temp dropped by 1c in the last half hour, now 2.5c.
Anyone over near Brid/Filey, looks like you’re getting a slightly heavier bit now, any good?
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6 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:
Both Staxton and Burton F @ -3 at the mo... bl00dy chilly out in our neck of the woods!
-3.8c on my station (in town in Malton). I reckon we’ll see one or two of the rural frost hollows across the region get down into negative double digits by dawn.
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Spoke too soon - better for you guys in West/South Yorks by evening
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18z Arpege is just rolling out and this is where we’re at so far…
Not brilliant for us, want it to be a tad further north really
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13 minutes ago, terrier said:
I guess time will tell. But in my opinion this won’t amount to much. But I would be happy to be proved wrong. I have been wrong in the past lol.
Hope I’m wrong too and get a foot of snow but quite unlikely
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29 minutes ago, terrier said:
Wise words indeed. I think a few will be left disappointed with this upcoming spell. As you say if very marginal for many low lying areas. Even up here in Huddersfield I think we are probably looking at a few slushy deposits. My guess would be 3-5cm up on the higher parts of the region and mainly a slushy covering for most other low lying areas. Certainly can’t see much in the way of heavy falls of snow widely.
I disagree and think West Yorkshire, particularly areas >100m, and the western half of North Yorkshire, will see some substantial snow unless there’s a significant shift in position. It’s low lying places east of the A1 that I think will be more marginal and less likely to do well.
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Hoping I’ll be wrong about Thurs/Fri, but generally modification from the North Sea can affect snow along the coast in these kind of events so those of us along or near the east coast are probably more likely to see a snow to rain event while those further inland will see more accumulating snow.
I can see this being taken into account on the latest modelling which is trending towards lower snow depths for low ground in eastern parts of Yorkshire. Either way - any falling and settling snow will be a bonus after this winter!
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29 minutes ago, Tim A said:
Each model shows a different outcome for tonight , but there is a chance of some snow, more Northern areas (North of Leeds) generally favoured but will come down to Nowcasting.
Being picked up on a number of models (NMM, Arpege, Icon) which is interesting but you’re right - will be a case of seeing if anything materialises at the time. A good time for some settling snow - some people may wake up to a surprise tomorrow morning.
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2024 Tornado Season
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
Enhanced risk from the SPC for the next 3 days across southern US. This includes a 10% hatched risk area tomorrow and already a Day 3 enhanced risk that discusses tornadoes as the primary threat.
I haven’t looked at the charts but it looks like the threat moves east a bit each day from TX through LA/MS.