benb

I've money on London and all the radar indications are that there was wintry precipitation. How can the result be impartial if it is not overseen by the met office? Did the met office have some one at Buck Pal watching the weather all night? Why would they?

There's definately a bit more action on the radar in the far west of Pembrokeshire. It's been a very frustrating day here- snow showers to the north and sleet/hail to the south and nothing where I am! I seem to have missed snow from the east, north and now the north west. Still- it remains (in theory!) a great set-up. Expect the unexpected?

Trouble is the wind's now too westerly. The showers in the north aren't being blown down to south Wales, but across to the borders. If it's not one thing, it's another! Just goes to show what a difficult combination of factors we need for snow.

I believe so. Everything is moving generally NW to SE. In the next couple of hours, I'd expect to see increased activity in the Irish Sea off the Pembs/Credigion coast and then these showers heading this way. Ironically, the sun may help this process, adding a little more energy into the system. However, I'm no meteorologist and am happy to be proven wrong by events!

I think we're currently in a little ridge of higher pressure. The unstable air that has the shower cells in it is still a little way off. If you've the NetWeather radar, select the 'air pressure' option from the drop down menu and you can see what I mean.

This cold spell has a long way to go. Don't write it off yet! Very light dusting of soft hail this morning covering roads/cars etc. Currently -2.5c.

Moderate wet snow/sleet now in Pontyates! Get in there! Temp crashing (ish) now 2.8 degrees.

Temp here now dropping- not by much (3.4 from 3.8 degrees). I think I'm on the right side of the warm sector now.

When the colder air gets to you, it'll freeze and then any snow will settle easy. I imagine ice is going to be a real issue shortly.

Agree.

The RAIN has arrived! Temp has gone up to 2.5 degrees, from 1.5, in the last 40mins or so. Hoping that the cold air undercuts the warm sector sooner rather than later. There's a lot of stuff coming down the Irish Sea, so I feel time may be on our side.

Temps seem to have stabalised here at 1.4 degrees. There's a layer of ice over everything outside. This is so marginal! Looking at the radar, there's certainly no shortage of precipitation. If you're lucky enough to get it as snow, you may get a good covering.

Temp here rising steadily. Was 0.5 an hour ago, now 1.4 degrees. The home page shows Pembrey at 5 degrees. Spells rain to me. Hope I'm wrong!

There's a load of showers behind the band, too. They're after the warm sector. They'll be snow, deffo.

Looks like showers running down the Irish Sea- Pembrokeshire Dangler kicking in (puts the Thames streamer to shame!)- don't think there will be too much inland. BUT- check out the precipitation in the north of Scotland- that's probably that front and it's heading this way! (Eventually!)

Morning All! Just driven back from Tenby to Pontyates after the works do last night (slept in the van- now that was cold! Even my beer jacket was rendered ineffective!) Wintery mix in Tenby then a varying covers of snow between Kilgetty and here. Temps between -1 and -3. Currently snowing lightly. Eh- Shaunwales if you get hit by a snowball later- that'll be me!

Lucky for some! I did think with troughs etc modelled, a little more precipitation may have made it to the west. Got to be careful using those precipitation charts!

Great charts- thanks! Hope it comes off. Me too- I'm just getting images from this afternoon!

I think you're right.

Just treated myself to the NetWeather radar and am currently watching a nice lump of pink heading towards Swansea/s Carmarthenshire...

Cheers Shaun- hope you're well. I also hope we bring NetWeather down on Sat/Sun with all snow reports from Pontyates! Keep everything crossed!

Can't get onto the charts. How's the 12z looking?

Well, early stages but so far the 18z is up to its usual bedtime dream scenario- Northerly arriving quicker and more forcefully, warm sector further west and more precipitation. Hope it plays out like this! And then a good ole NWerly pushing those showers inland.

Cheers for replies guys! Fingers crossed for the 18z.

Well, I'm quietly confident about the snow prospects for the weekend here in Carmarthenshire. Compared to the conditions last Feb (at least a level six inches, minor drifting and snow in the garden for nearly two weeks) , the synoptics look even more impressive this time round - lower 850s, better sourcing of air and much more precipitation forecast. Obviously the major negative is the sea temp due to the mild autumn. It'll be interesting to see what transpires. Here's hoping for a snowy few days. I've got a static caravan in Abersoch booked for Tues/Weds nights next week. Anybody hazard a guess to conditions? I'm supposed to be surfing, would I be better taking my skis?