Yorkshiresnows

To be fair to Joe, he has discussed what has been occurring and readily admitted that he has got it wrong in the USA. Not sure he has it that wrong for Europe. The cold predicted for mid-late winter in the East South East, looks good, though it was obviosuly a lot colder in the North-West than he originally predicted. If you check out his video site he has recently discussed how this years La- Nina has not met expected analogues, and to me this honest and open approach is great to see. What he has got correct is the Global temp rise and fall since the El Nino and now La Nina has kicked in, next year looks cold from a global perspective. Y.S

Do we really. January Global temps are currently running around 0.1 degree C below the average !!. The monthly plots to end December illustrate the impressive drop off (as forecast many months ago) really taking effect. If you then look at the first 10 days of January you can see this accelerating. 2011 looks to be seting up for one of the coolest years of the past 10, with the biggest drop-off for quite some time. The PDO is negative, we've low solar activity, and if anything over the coming years once the AMO turns, this is only going to accelerate. La Nina is strong and set to remain so for much of 2011. Past postings of PDO cycles and global temp fluctuations have been done, but again illustrates the importance of ocean cycles on our climate. What I find strange is that all of this has been so very predictable and has little to do with greenhouse gas forcing (in my opinion). Check out the latest from Joe B: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather, his video blog on the main Accuweather site also nicely illustrates these points: http://www.accuweather.com/video/748914366001/global-temps-have-dropped-belo.asp Should this continue as forecast, I'd suggest that despite the continued posts of depression and doom, ..... things may start to improve. Y.S

Totally agree with some of the above supportive comments. For the past couple of years your forecasts (Roger and Blast) have been very good. Of course, there is now a real test with notable divergance from G.P's forecast (who also has a superb pedigree in this area of long range forecasting), and Joe B (now stating that winter is pretty much over for Europe ....... so it will be very interesting to see how the last third of January and February pan out. If the forecast is even close to being as suggested (very cold), then folks are going to have to look seriously at solar and lunar factors to run alongside the more traditional teleconnections. As a cold lover I'm crossing my fingers Good Luck Y.S

Really. Are we talking about the same issue. The role of low cloud cover ? Have you read his book? I've got his paper in front of me, where exactly do you see this withdrawal. Do not forget, to get his latest paper published he had to sanitise and tone down the message. However, its still there. So you honestly believe that all of the additional water vapour will not lead to an increase in cloud cover ...... come on !!! The IPCC even state that this is a big area of uncertainty. It would only take an increase in cloud cover of 0.5 to 1.0% to account for all of the 20th century warming. Factor in changes in PDO and the probability that this would likely affect cloud cover and the uncertainties start to increase. You state that 1C from a doubling of CO2 is not insignificant. Okay, yes, I agree. But the real deal here is that the IPCC rely on the role of water vapour to act TOTALLY in a positive feedback way to generate the 2-5 degrees or whatever it is projections ...... and there is mounting evidence to suggest that this is simply not the case. There is also the observational fact that the IPCC forecasts have been way off the mark. Why ? ....... Maybe because there are cyclical events they have not fully understood. None of us do. However and I am with Joe laminate floori on this one, the PDO IS A KEY PLAYER ...... we will see soon enough ...... but looking at the turnaround of the recent El-Nino to super La Nina, I am confident. Don't get me wrong, we have warmed and CO2 is a greenhouse gas. I just do not buy its significance, not from what I have read and continue to find out. I'll vote to reduce greenhouse gases and live a more sustainable life, it makes common sense. However, I feel as though I have torn through a veil and do not believe that Co2 is the route cause of the recent warming. By the way, no disrespect to any of you, I know that this is a polarising area of debate !! Y.S Y.S

Hey dude, I've spent countless hours, days and months looking at multitudes of publications for and against AGW from scientists that are pro and somewhat skeptic of the role of CO2 on recent warming. I myself was firmly in the AGW camp prior to a couple of years ago. Arrogance ? ....Try Ignorance ........ 390 PPM C02 means bugger all if it is not a potent greenhouse gas (note I have not said that it has no effect at all, a greenhouse gas it most obviously is..... but compared to water vapour, .... its insignificant !!). For your information, prior to the fourth IPCC assessment, oceanic cycles such as the PDO and certainly Solar cycles were NOT factored into the climate modals ....... this is a fact. Even now key issues such as cloud effects are poorly understood (the IPCC acknowledge this), with recent publications by Roy Spencer suggesting an important cyclical role via the PDO (I posted on this back in the summer and Autumn, but you can google his site for reference if you are interested). Meanwhile, La Nina gathers force and world temps are on the way down .... much as predicted. With the PDO negative, I'd suggest that this will be the way of things for the next 20-30 years ..... but we will see. Lets see how this all pans out, but for me, clouds are the key and what influences low cloud formation, ... this can be a mechanism for temperature regulation. Controversial perhaps, but rubbish it is not (IMHOP). Y.S

How about working on the 30 year PDO. The La Nina is bringing down global temps as widely predicted. As we are now in -PDO territory we may expect a continued cooling with greater arctic ice retention over the coming years. Cyclically predictable and little to do with Co2. Should world temps fall next year to near average ..... what then for the AGW debate ....... surely this must mean that greenhouse gas emissions are not the ONLY factor and that CO2 forcing is not overridingly strong? It was not so long ago that folks were talking about the world climate being a 'closed system' and that La Nina and El Nino could not affect the grand scheme of climate change. Not in my book. Also not so long ago that GW was posting all sorts of rubbish to do with certain heatwaves etc using this as evidence of increased global warming.... Obvously this was not so, equally as the early European cold winter is not evidence of a cooling climate. Y.S

i'd suggest that you take a current look at the world temp profile .... well at least the current trend (warmest on record .... nope and a big fall currently in progress) For me, I'm looking forward to posting the November world temp mean ....... clue ...... big decresae .... in line with the la Nina forcing .... predictable. If we continue in this vain, then the whole CO2 is "THE BIG FORCER" .... is obviously (and for me has been quite obvious for some time) just plain silly. [This is not to say that C02 is not a greenhouse gas ... which of course it is ... just that it is WEAK !!) Y.S BUT LOOK AT THE FALL COMING !!! http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

That's your opinion. I have mine. All fair and no disrespect. I am not dismissing G.P, but there is clearly a role in using solar amnd lunar factors in forecasting. Otherwise we would all be laughing at what is being suggested !!! Lets see how this years pans out !!! Y.S

Hi Folks, I'd just like to add what a great thread this is, ... ... and lets face it, its down to Roger and Fred's willingness to engage and discuss both plaudit and critical comments. This is a fascinating area of LRF'ing and together with the 'teleconnection' side of things really underscores (in my opinion) what a complicated business forecasting weather ... and climate is. For what its worth (and just my two pennith worth), the fact that we have seen (on average) a suppressed jet stream over a period of over two-three years ..... coinciding with low solar activity looks more than just chance. Roger and Fred have been right up there with GP in regards accuracy .... and its all so very interesting. Its becoming clear to me that solar and quite possibly lunar factors do have a role to play. Keep up the great work guys .... and please keep updating. Y.S

<br /><br /><br />Hi WE The point was ..... it got a whole lot colder. I agree with almost all of your post. Second, you may or may not argue that if the global climate is ever in flux, then the role of natural cycles will be important (I am not a global warming denier by the way, ...just how much is attributable to greenhouse gas emissions rather than other cycles I very much question). Hence, taking it one step further and if one can entertain that the above has a part to play, then I would argue that what we are seeing in the arctic, may well be in large part due to entirely natural cyclical changes. The past 30 years may or may not be entirely down to AGW or ..... perhaps other events e.g. such as a +PDO (which changed states in 1979 and then again in 2007). But, time will of course tell. Gray Wolf likes to argue that what we are seeing is unprecedented and often likes to dismiss earlier times where warmer climes occurred e.g. the Greenland and Iceland colnisations by the Vikings, coinciding with the known medieval warm period, going back further to the Roman warm period ..... or even evidence to suggest unusual warm conditions in the arctic during the 1920's and 1930's. Highly likley (but cannot br proven with certainty I agree), that arctic ice would have been in a low ebb over these periods. That was the point of the original post. Y.S

<br /><br /><br />I've posted on the topic of the Greenland settlements (Vikings)here previously. Yes, there were a number of factors that put paid to the Viking settlements (Greenland and Iceland). But, the increasingly cold and bitter winters was the key factor. There is a book entitled the Little Ice Age by Brian Fagan that goes into historicaly recorded details. There is also this as a brief summary: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:dy-JhG3PMyMJ:www.iupui.edu/~geni/documents/Vikings_in_Greenland-An_Overview.doc+The+end+of+the+viking+settlements+in+greenland&cd=5&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk Y.S

<br /><br /><br />It was the cold, history has recorded it, you know it, I know it, the whole world knows it. Please lets move on !! Y.S

Well, I guess its all down to your point of view and how you interpret the evidence available. How about we wait a few years and see what gives ..... ? With a potent La Nina rapidly following El Nino, the conditions for at least next year look much more favourable for arctic sea ice retention, AND there are a lot of folks who believe that the PDO changed states around 2007. Too much emotive silliness in regards to tipping points and so forth ....... we are in a clearly better position than 2007 ....... that alone speaks volumes !! Meanwhile the antactic situation is also clear (to me): Y.S

Afternoon folks, Check this out: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=22250 Busted forecast or what !!! Too much doommongering on here ...... as per usual. Nice post from Joe B: "Could it simply be that the warm PDO and of the last 30 years, amo the past 15 years has forced warming of the land masses of the northern hemisphere which in turn melted part of the ice cap, something that would reverse if you simply give the cyclical nature of the PDO and AMO to run its course. And if it is tougher to move the temperature of water, than air, then can we say that in terms of the overall energy budget of the earth, the increase in southern hemisphere sea ice, which roughly approximates the decrease in northern hemispheric ice, has to be a hint as to the correct answer, that there has been really no change, just a response cyclical in nature, which if you simply give it 20 or 30 years, will give us a concrete answer one way or another. Is common sense that big a threat that people refuse to acknowledge the dire forecasts of only 10 years ago, by a major player in this debate, so that other ideas simply appealing for the chance to prove their point, are dismissed, while no one in the mainstream questions the fact that you cant freely ship through the arctic in the summer, no matter how much we want to quibble about where the ice stands now? IS that the longest run on question in the history of any blog? ( ha ha, we need some levity given the dire forecasts that have out) Sorry, but I had to post that. Its amazing that such things never are picked up in the mainstream I challenge the journalists that are fair minded to look into this forecast at this link and do what they are supposed to do.. get to the bottom of the story. Is there free shipping through the arctic already, and if so, has Santa Clause been able to make use of it ( again..ho ho ho)" (The link to this is here: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/laminate floori-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather) Y.S

<br /><br /><br />John, I think you need to look at a fairly recent post by Mr Data. Joe B does not forecast a cold Europe / UK every winter, that has been clearly shown to be a myth. You should also look a little more closely on what he is predicting for the UK and Northern Europe this winter... which is as a whole a normal to slightly milder than normal winter. He has posted a video on the main Accu-weather site (expert video blogs), which provides his rationale for his forecast. For me, he's been spot on for a fair while now, so like him or hate him. Y.S

<br /><br /><br />Great post. I really cannot understand why people are so keen to dismiss the possible impacts of the PDO state. We've been in +PDO territory for the majoprity of the past 30 years ..... with arctic ice declining and antarctic ice increasing. Surely there is at least the possibility that this has had an impact, peaking in 2007 ? Its also only been in the last 30 years where highly detailed measurements have been taken .....so we really need to relax a little and see what gives over the next few (-PDO) years. Y.S

<br /><br /><br />Spot on Jethro, Y.S

<br /><br /><br />I really think that we cannot state for certain what's going happen until we assess the next few years under the -PDO phase. The decline in artcic ice has more or less followed the pattern of the last 30 years (+PDO). Global forecasts for next year look cooler, with La Nina in dominance. Y.S

Great Forecast G.P, Sounds very realistic to me and to be honest I don't know why there are any disappointed posts, ... a cold December and early part of January with the possibility of some snow is great. I guess that some have higher expectations after the past 2 years, which others have already alluded to. I've always found your forecasts well reasoned and honest..... frighteningly accurate as well. Please keep up the great work and I look forward to your updates as and when they appear. Y.S

Quite, ...... but the posts by some on this thread have now crossed the point of reality ...... into somewhere else !! Y.S

[Despite the deepest solar minimum in decades, and a very deep La Nina in progress, temperatures continue to break records, and the last 12 months continue to be the hottest 12 months on record...<br /><a href='http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/04/endless-summer-hottest-september-record-high-temperatures/' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='nofollow external'>http://climateprogre...h-temperatures/</a><br /><a href='http://climateprogress.org/2010/09/28/1california-prop-23-los-angeles-heat-wave/' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='nofollow external'>http://climateprogre...eles-heat-wave/</a><br />

<br /><br /><br />Apologies, Watched the latest and posted last weeks in error. I cannot access the link at work, but you can see the latest under Joe B expert blog (under video blog). Cheers Y.S

Hi Folks, Latest video diary of global sea ice situation from Joe B: http://www.accuweather.com/video/624373716001/monday-morning-sea-ice-report.asp Y.S

This cannot be a serious post .......... is it !!!!? Extent looking good ..... Anomaly chart showing the past 30 year increasing trend. Latest image looking healthy !!! Y.S