snowblizzard
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Posts posted by snowblizzard
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Channel system - looking at radar and live webcams in Lille & Brussels, although a light covering, there doesn't appear to have been the 20-30cm of snow that some TV forecasts were predicting for Europe!
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2 minutes ago, rwtwm said:
To those looking at the output concerned about how dry it looks... To find an example where the moisture/shower activity was underestimated 3 days from the event you have to go all the way back to...
Last weekend.
This isn't me claiming that there'll be at least as much snowfall or anything like it. Just pointing out the frailty of precipitation forecasts ahead of the range of the local hires models.
TV forecasts today becoming more bullish and using terms like 'Increasing risk of snow!'
Mainly Northern half of UK from shower activity, but some Southern counties still could see more general snow from the LP system that runs through Northern France?
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Looks like we will be back to the usual Westerly, Atlantic driven regime by next weekend!
Cold spells from the North rarely bring lasting frigid cold spells to the South of UK!
Deep cold pools from E/NE are far more likely to deliver extreme cold and potential snow cover.
But, in reality, how many times in recent years has a cold spell in the Southern half of UK lasted more the 5/6 days?
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37 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
Not got time to post charts etc but 10-14 day NOAA shows a westerly into the UK, still a bit below 500 MB temperatures for UK, 6-10 shows pattern I posted yesterday. ECMWF also v slightly downgraded in its time frame, shows very slack COL situation by end of its period which is a similar time frame to 6-10 NOAA. I prefer to see 2-3 charts being consistent before making any forecasts.
Would I be right in thinking the longevity of any deep cold looks in jeopardy?
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14 minutes ago, stewfox said:-10c 850s over a lot of south east tomorrow but 3c to 4c forecast
In the current situation do we need very low 850s to add to instability given high pressure, the wet warm ground ?
-20c 850 line almost made it into SE January 1987!
I seem to remember Monday 12th it didn't get any higher than -5c during the day with a strong Easterly and heavy snow showers resulting in wind chill around -15c
Absolutely bone chilling, but lovely stuff if you're a fan of severe winter weather!
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7 minutes ago, Catacol said:
Maybe we should put some numbers to the language so that when some shout “a deep freeze is now off the table” we know what we are talking about.
As I see it taking into account usual U.K. winter synoptics:
850s of 0 = Cool
850s of -4 = Cold (has to be, given at -4 snow is in the mix)
850s of -8 = Very Cold (rare, and snow over rain nearly ever time)
850s of -12 = Severe Cold (very rare in truth, if you want lots of these go to Canada!)
850s of -16 = Exceptional Cold (how often in the last 50 years?)
On this basis I will say again - we are looking at a spell of very cold weather off and on for the extended. At times it will be cool to cold, and at best we might hit the odd moment of severe cold if the dice roll kindly. And snow is in the mix.
Do some folk need to get realistic about U.K. winter? We will never hit continental levels of freeze potential.
Never?
Surely there's potential for deep cold across UK, if only short lived?
1981 1987 1991 2010 2013 2018
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A sobering post on the mod thread from JH
Little prospect of deep cold over UK during the next 10 days!
Always an objective view from this ex MET man.
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Just now, Gowon said:
It's getting exciting, isn't it - all this fantasy cold? - I hope it becomes a reality and then we can start moaning about how our faces are freezing off.
Certainly not fantasy cold across Scandinavia!
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22 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:
Almost like they're not allowed to mention it! And Louise Lear still seems more interested in wearing wacky outfits than giving a detailed forecast.
That women's dress sense is often rather bazaar!
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Still no hint of any severe weather coming from BBC Forecasters!
John Hammond would normally be getting very excited about any Easterly incursion.
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528 DAM across much of the country.
Where will it go from here?
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Currently, the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low!
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We are sleeping with window open at the moment as it's so mild.
The birds were singing at 3.50am this morning!
They are probably delighted that there is no frost, ice or snow to deal with, and temperatures at night are higher than they should be during the middle part of the day.
Christmas Eve looks like being one of the warmest on record, 15c forecast for parts of Southern England.
I really can't see this pattern changing significantly for several weeks!
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55 minutes ago, Don said:
Yes, I’m lucky to be old enough to remember the mid-80’s winters, although I would love to have experienced 62/63!
I'm an older poster, I was 8 years old during 62/63 winter and distinctly remember walking across 6ft drifts of snow along the main roads near Westerham, Kent.
Also, the 80's winters (especially January 1987) and early 90's cold snaps.
I was just watching the programme on CH5 about the white Christmas of 1981 during which parts of Wales and the West Country were pretty much buried!
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Every winter seems to be the same nowadays.
We all hunt for model charts that predict severe cold from NE or E and copious amounts of snow.
Get excited about global drivers and weather teleconnections that indicate favourable climate patterns for the British Isles.
But invariably, it all ends in failure!
Global warming is rapidly changing weather patterns all around the world.
Surely, we have to accept that British winters as we used to know them are pretty much dead in the water?
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34 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:
Well, the snow seems to have arrived, settled, then broken down with a thaw setting in, and now mild air is knocking on the door all in the space of 12 hours. Never used to happen like this 20 years ago.
It's Meteorological Spring!
Longer daylight hours
Increased solar strength
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Looks to me, like the air is simply not cold enough down South for anything significant or notable.
I'm thinking cold rain, sleet with a few snowflakes mixed in for much of SE England!
Perhaps, some wet snow settling on higher ground like the Downs?
Different story further North, where it's really game on above 200 metres!
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ITV (Laura Tobin) much much colder next week with snow showers, especially Eastern counties (including Kent!).
BBC (Nina Ridge) a little colder next week with the possibility of a few wintry showers.
Spot the difference!
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What ever happens throughout the remainder of winter, I'm happy to have experienced a decent spell of wintry weather here in the SE.
We had snowfall (about 2 inches) early Sunday evening and since then the temperature has hardly risen above zero degrees even during sunny daylight hours!
The snow & ice is still on the ground and on the tree branches, looking very seasonal.
A massive change coming from this Sunday, but I'm ready for some milder temperatures.
Then, it's back to the models to chase the next potential cold spell.
And, exciting times ahead for my Cousin who lives in the East of USA!
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13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
Which TV forecast are showing weather 8 days away?
Monday & Tuesday are only 5/6 days ahead!
ITV & BBC both hinting about less cold early next week.
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8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
My take using NOAA anomaly charts and ECMWF 10 day outputs
Next issue on tuesday 6 December=
Very little flow light westerly from flow over n Canada which has very marked +ve area centred west of Greenland, (area usually with main upper trough!). contour height s’ern England=534 DM so still fairly cold aloft. Fairly small –ve area over s’ern uk extending sw.
Surface weather staying cold for most areas, synoptic outputs suggest milder air and associated surface features tryinmg to make ne progress. This chart gives no certainty of how far north, not far I would suggest. The 8-14 any ridging has gone to be replaced by a fairly slack westerly flow with heights in far south about 6+ DM higher at 546 DM. This would suggest that during the 8-14 day period less cold air will be the pattern with that westerly flow.
Using the ECMWF 10 day charts suggests the -5 C isotherm at 850 MB never get further north than N Ireland to the Wash? But the surface flow changes from a SE’ly from the low west of the UK to a slack W’ly. The 500 mb flow from a fairly slack northerly origin to N of West by the 17th.
Overall the slow change from deep cold N’ly to a less cold westerly in the 8-14 day period from now looks sequential and acceptable in meteorological terms. I would suggest 65-35% for this to be the weather sequence.
Mind you that % suggests it is not a done deal either way so far!
I'll try and add the charts as soon as I can.
Hence, the hints from TV forecaster's that it's likely to become less cold early next week?
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5 minutes ago, Howie said:
Wow.
Cold, but mainly dry!
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23 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
The Anomalies have handled the evolution of the Northern blocking very accurately.. and they are consistent with a weak upper flow over the UK sourced from Greenland, so extremely cold, plus a deep low pressure anomaly over the UK, surely that should be all the ingredients for snowmageddon! Dew points, air thickness and temperatures all in place...
Would that chart not indicate West based -NAO?
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If only it was a few weeks later. Surely, a set-up like this would definitely deliver a more severe winter spell first/second week of January?
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Model banter and emotions
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by snowblizzard
February temperature anomalies for the majority of Europe were stunning.
Warm, warm, warm!
