SnowStorm(Jamie)

Id say when you compare that to some of the charts like the AROME @ 9pm it seems further north and moving faster than expected:

Looks pretty good, but for sure seems to be arriving earlier. I think ill be making the use of my view up towards the Brecon Beacons local park here is around 160m few mins away more than likely will see some falling snow but not much good to me at 3am!

Lucky you, mines got heavy rain 3am until 6am

-1C here now, in line with what the Met O app shows.

Fingers crossed, you may be best placed in our area to see something though Derek going for accumulations in Cardiff, Bridgend and Newport so thats a promising sign to be honest for those areas.

Id say its only really a problem for those in the SW quater of Wales - Pembroke, Llanelli, Swansea, Port Talbot seeing mostly rain and some sleet in any heavy bursts, evaporative cooling unlikely to play much of a part here given the speed the front will move through.

Latest Met O app calls for heavy rain here and 2c by 3am - That updates hourly so changes frequently. Might set an alarm to see what its doing around then. I think the latest ECM has the track fairly accurate if you look at the 9pm chart compared to the current radar.

Completely agree, it seems like its been ages and for some like myself the last time i seen falling/accumilating snow greater than a dusting was 2013 and that wasnt even forecast! Even the early 2000's produced more here (2005 & 07 come to mind) . If theres a covering of snow here even slightly ill be impressed! But time will tell. I think areas like Bridgend, Cardiff & Newport should be safe to see some accumilating snow how much and how long it lasts is open to question.

Just an update from Derek:

It does appear to be a bit further north and also seems like at least from the ECM's perspective will clear through quite quick. Ive included the last 4 ECM runs for 6am Sunday, as you can see the last image shows it clearing South Wales by then. Again shows snow for most even on the coast but I wouldnt rely on those details to much.

That looks great for most people, accumilating snow to the N, W and E of Swansea - I bet it will end up being correct

UKV still looking good for much of Wales, apart from immediate SW coastal areas much the same story with the GFS. ICON looks very promising for much of Wales also, but maybe being a little bit to generous with snow distribution? ARPEGE also shows snow even for SW and W Wales for a time before it moves further north and east across Wales, while for me in Swansea im expecting mostly rain and sleet even here a spell of snow cannot be rulled out: Sweet spot maybe N/NE Wales where the front starts to pivot but thats dependant on how far north and east it gets. The latest Met Office update as Jay has pointed out: "Mixture of rain and snow, heavy in some places" A quick look at the surface flow from the GFS I think points out why things are more marginal for immediate SW coasts - A S/SW flow right off the sea. Just to throw in another one - NMM 2km high res model (not sure how relaible this one is I believe its the higher resolution model fed by the GFS but may be wrong) good chunk of snow there for most :

Thanks for posting those, razor edge stuff where some modest elevation and/or being that bit further inland makes all the difference.

For those in Swansea the 2 problems will be marginal temps and the possiblity of light precipitation which if true will likely result in rain or sleet as per the latest ARPEGE. The flow appears to be from the SW/S and ill be amazed if i see any falling snow from that. Northern parts of Swansea with elevation have a better chance.

I agree with you there, await to see any updates from the Met Office regarding the event see if they have increased the condifence and such.

Just had a quick browse through the latest high res models, looks pretty good for S/SE Wales at the moment. Last 3 ECM runs for Sun @ 6am: to me it seems precipitation has got less slightly but id say the higher res models should have a better grasp on the situation by now.

Yes id say so, I just come across this from the Met Office note the "Uncertain north and east extent"

I havent seen the UKV myself but i take it from the chart posted there it shows a spell of sleet/snow for most even in the south? Latest ICON actually shifts things further south, looks great at first sight but its whether or not this trend of moving it south continues now or not.

Yes the further inland & east the better really!

I did notice that on Twitter Derek mentioned sleet/rain for Swansea and Barry. Difficult one to call really, personally im not expecting much here in Swansea because ive seen better setups produce rain for me - one of the caveats of living close to the coast. But even here i feel it may switch to snow on the back-edge for a time.

Snow and Ice warning now issued by the Met Office. Still some uncertaintiy around the event obviously and if things end up to far north then it becomes more marginal for those in the south, to far south and and its in the channel again. Interesting to see how this one pans out

Waiting to see if the Met Office releases a warning for Early Sunday, I imagine there will be a snow and ice warning.

You could very well be right there. Id say a more developed feature may have increased preciptation but may make this more marginal for the south and west (low ground). Im sceptical at this stage with a south west flow ahead of the preciptiation for those near the coast I wouldnt get your hopes up.

The latest GFS brings the front just about into S Wales but the precipitation doesnt look heavy enough at all. Lets see whats tonights ECM shows, more than likely in the channel!

In 2018 when we had that low pressure run into the cold pool of air with a strong easterly flow it produced some very impressive snow amounts across South Wales, I belive around 1ft in cardiff? Luckily I was in Bridgend and got to see some heavy snow at the time but back in Swansea aside from some flakes in the wind and being very cold was much of nothing, rain shadow or in this case a snow shadow as precipitation trained east to west over higher ground of south wales, leaving very little for those west of high ground. Hopefully there will be more opportunities as time goes on with this current cold spell.