stewfox
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Posts posted by stewfox
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Only 12c in london feels warmer then that and sun burnt mist/fog off faster today
No cloud in the sky though
Funny kind of ice on the car today in Bicester didnt scrap off easy :huh:
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please explain how it is broke, and the last few decades is just not a cycle of weather that the planet is going through in its very long existence. a decade of time is merely a tiny speck in the age of the planet. surely we cant judge how to classify our seasons on a few years of records? oh and talking of which, who is to say we have not been here before? records and data only go back a short time you know
Im not in favour of changing the 'seasons' yet as we havent had enough time. I bet if we did we would have a freezing feb next yr
Many places have a dry/wet season a monsoon non monsoon season
We have at present 'four' .
Now for us in the UK daylight is of course an issue, that wont change
However if we had 30 more mild febs and all things 'woke up from hibernation' '30 days early' every year it would make sense for Jo public to redefine the 'seasons'. we are not there yet
What the tech people do is another thing
If we have 25 'spring like days' for the next 25 yrs in 'winter' whats the problem with calling it Spring ?? Nature will
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Let's say April 3 at Wisley.
Yes Wisley could be a good bet
However last yr arrived home to Gatwick Airport and it was +7c in May
Therefore I go for gatwick Airport
16th April wednesday 72.4f ,then a break down with showers for the weekend
first 30c london July 23rd
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No, the seasons should remain with the dates they have. or should we also change the eqiunoxes and what happens if the next 5 winters start early or finish late?? if it ain't broke, why fix it??
It is broke thats the whole point
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It doesn't work meteorologically though - February is on average colder than December and is about level pegging with January. We're having a few warm days just now, but it won't always be the case - not even this week! It's worth remembering that many plants were late in winter 2005/6 because of the very cold first 3 weeks of March, so a bit of a knee-jerk reaction to a couple of mild winters I think. I'd stick with the Met Office definitions of:
Winter: Dec-Feb
Spring: Mar-May
Summer: Jun-Aug
Autumn: Sep-Nov
I dont think its a good idea as well at present but if for the next 50yrs the daffs or what ever comes up 4 weeks early its a bit silly to keep saying spring starts says 21st March when nature doesnt (How do you define Spring ?)
I think the easiest one is Summer
You can have a warm spring day late May or warm Autumn day early September much of that transition is governed by daylight particulary as you enter September
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This one comes around every year, in fact it is more reliable than proper winter weather.
Accepting that the seasons have an astronomical definition, and another convenient definition for the purposes of statistical bookkeeping, I would offer.
Spring, Mar 1 - May 15: Summer, May 16 - Aug 31: Autumn, Sept 1 - Dec 31: Winter Jan 1 - Feb 28. There's a case for renaming winter "deep autumn" or for splitting the period into two halves: 'deep autumn' and 'early or pre-spring'.
All of that said, I will persist with the two starting definitions. The renaming is reflection of change in actuality c.f. expectation; there is no saying that winter must be wintry, even though in an adjectival sense it becomes a misnomer.
I don’t think you could just go by temp but day light is a factor
To have mid December when its dark by cira 4pm and not light till 8am as a Autumn month makes no sense to me
If 1st feb was the new start to spring you could switch to BST then
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Current mins in USA (11/2/2008)
I see min of -37f in Minesota and 69f Miami
Thats 106f of change
If you drive what 1200 miles North ?
Is that a record ?
what is the record for biggest variation in a day for USA
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Even by sub tropical Cornish standards this Winter has been a shocker for cold. Even if we don't see snow down here on the coast, Bodmin Moor tends to get 2 or 3 coverings per season, but this year not one to date!
As I said in a different Fred Winters are really not taken seriously down here any more. The amount of people on the beach this weekend was incredible, with even January and February consided sunbathing and paddling months nowadays - it's crazy and more than a tad frustrating as a cold lover... :lol:
I read somewhere recently that we should start changing the season definitions. To reflect the weather/plant growth etc
My idea
Winter Dec-Jan
Spring Feb - Apr
Summer May-Sept
Autumn Oct-Nov
Any other ideas
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Global warming (very small amount) and its cause (the jury is still out) is a bit like the theory of the big bang
Its going to take a lot of evidence to push the 'theory' aside.
When you get the EC trying to do this
You get tunnel vision
In 1975 it was global cooling
http://www.denisdutton.com/cooling_world.htm
My post was more about the bias
Well said.I think the writing is on the wall now wrt to AGW. The only issue is to the degree that it will accelerate or increase (still debatable and often over-ramped by doom mongers) as well as the intensity of impacts. I do think things are getting worse tho, and we must act to mitigate them as soon as possible. Its very important.
For who ?
Last winter, thousands of older people died, simply because of the cold
A bit warmer you save lifes etc
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Noggin, your lack of mathematical sophistication continues to betray you. Your whole thesis around temperatures cooling seems to be based on the fact that the current peak of global temperature occurred in 1998. Furthermore, to select individual points in space and time, and to project from there that we are cooling, is either naive or stupid. Have you checked to see how many unusually warm events have occurred over the period? Finally, and we keep returning to this point in discussions with both you and Jethro, climate varies because weather varies, often in very short cycles. That is why long period averages matter - they smooth out the short term variation, and the long period mean, however you care to cut it, is still resolutely upwards.
Where and who are all these scientists talking about a cooldown. I haven't seen any.
Why would you need to 'check' re hot spots do you really think if we had
1) The worst heat wave in China for 50 years.
2) Temperatures in parts of central Asia 5 degrees/even 10 degrees above average.
3) Worst heat for decades in Tehran, Bahgdad, Saudi Arabia.
4) Record heat in Georgia (former USSR)
5) Temperatures way above normal in Mexico.
6) Record heat in parts of Canada and North America.
It would be on the front 15 pages of every newspaper ?
Maybe he was looking for an explanation rather then the 'a leaf has fallen one day early' it must be due to global warming
Given the experts cant predict the weather 24hrs ahead , if this is happen globally it deserves more of a ‘debate’ rather then a dismissive response from the Global warming brigade
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Has it not occurred to you (and a number of others) that the meteorologists of the UKMO do not have some wicked 'warmist' agenda and that their monthly forecasts are no more than their, admittedly imperfect but honest, attempts to interpret the available data?
regards
ACB
Of course they have a warmest agenda !!
December 2007 was the 3rd coldest december this century , not mentioned anywhere
I remember loads of air frosts
ps is the fact correct ??
December 2007 in Northern Ireland
Mean temperatures around 1 deg C above average for December, leading to 2007 being the warmest year in the Northern Ireland areal series, which began in 1914.
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thanks for that post TWS very intresting.
Yes thanks
I've been 'interested' in the weather since i was 5 but know very little about it
I was told at 16 my maths wasnt good enough to apply for the met
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Having read this comment by Mr Data,
'to think, John, there has only been 8 sub zero February CETs and you have lived through half of them! I though it might be 'fun' to see what that data showed.'
Ignoring the ones prior to 1947and listing them in order of severity.
1947 -1.9
1986 -1.1
1963 -0.7
1956 -0.2
Im going to assume Jan 87 falls just outside this ? Didnt that Jan warm up a bit ? Parents house move with no heating . I was at Ports Poly windows frozen on inside of house even with heating on in my small room !
Dec 81 as well although again that was early /mid month. Bus skidded on the 10th Dec 1981 in heavy snow on way to college , funny what you remember (mums birthday)
when was the last time we had a cold snap that lasted more then 2 weeks ??
Feb 86 for middle England ?
Jan 79 (clearly my grans frozen house as a young teenager)
April 89 a billizard in woking ?
Very heavy snow new years eve cira 75 or 76 ??
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I have seen it snow at 9C I think it was March/April time.
Theoretically I suppose it could
I assume there would be a steep temperature gradient and the snow didn’t have time to melt, although 9c ??
I also assume we get drizzle at 2c sometimes and heavy snow at 2c other times due to the temperature gradient and thermal activity
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It's snowed lightly at 4C here before but dewpoints were very low. It depends on numerous factors but I definitely wouldn't expect any snow to settle at such temps.
Someone will be along shortly with a better answer
Me thinks there all looking out of the window looking for snow
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I was told maybe 20yrs ago the coldest two weeks on the year in central England statistically were 2nd and 3rd week of January
That assumption has been corrected on this forum and now im told it’s the 2nd and third week of February
My question now is how mild does it need to get before it won’t snow
I was told it can snow up to around 7c but of course wouldn’t settle at that temperature
Is that correct ??
First 70f/21c of the year?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Its not unusual to hit 24c in Feb depends where you are
whats the warmest month on the planet ??