keithtod43
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Posts posted by keithtod43
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Back from working away and it seems that we in for a cold and snowy november due to the lack of solar minimum affect ,we shall see?
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Metcheck are you saying sleet and snow for the south of uk for saturday with easterly winds .what model output do they use to come up with that forecaste?
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I seem to remember the Met' Office usually issue a preliminary winter forecast around this time of year, based on various parameters in May.
Does anyone know when it's due out, or indeed if there's going to be one at all?
Its out now but its a joke.talk of hedging ones bet better off sticking to netweather and other websites.ALL in pretty much agreement a cold and wintry winter especially january.
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Yes you are completely right , somerset esp on the coastline though is really in the wrong place for snowfall even in winter, the southwest of england doesn't do well for snow at the best of times, the north, midlands, east anglia and the northeast especially are the best locations for snowfall, i feel northeast scotland, northeast england and east anglia are in the firing line this weekend.If netweather is correct the wind direction is more nnw flow which gives us in the sw a better chance of seeing more snow than we had this winter.
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looking at the radar early hours of sunday morning thats when sleet and snow will hit the swest i am confident seeing snow for the first time this winter.We got nothing in the way of snow over Easters cold spell, I doubt we will get anything this time around. -
Been raining in swales 14 hours(maybe longer)none stop had enough!
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It would have a Major impact (as we are seeing on the peninsula area) with both higher temps and different weather. If you look at the vast area that is the Ross Ice shelf then you'll see just how much of Antarctica will suddenly be above freezing (but below sea level) when the shelf fails. See the fringing mountains to the rear of Ross? they already have snow melt over summer (over 1km up) so imagine what a 'warm' sea lapping at their feet would bring to the lower levels (as in the peninsula). Then take a peep at the Weddell sea and imagine it ice free 6 months a year and the impact on the east of the peninsula that would have also.
The EAIS is higher than Greenland so just the environmental lapse rate would lead to a chilly top before you bring in 24hr darkness. However a milder coast bring enhanced precipitation to the centre and more snow means more dynamic upper reaches of the glaciers that form/flow there.
Don't let them fool you into thinking Antarctica is apart from the rest of the planet, it's just wishful thinking as it poses the greatest threat to humanity.I cannot allow you to print doom and gloom reports on the bbc the other day reported about the record amount of ice in the antartic and alot of South America (peru thousands die record cold temperatures,Brazil snow Argentina snow,)experienced severe winter. New Zealand records amount of cold weather.
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Totally agree to all aboveI would also ask for cold snap to be "cold sn" as using the "ap" is a grave injustice to what we actually experience.
As for cold blast now should be known as "cold blah" because that is as much sense as it makes.
Mind you my old grandma used to say about the winters of old in Yorkshire where she would regulary wake up to find 8 inches in her back passsage.
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A person at last who speaks a lot of sense this isent a even larger teapot just a normal winter average temps with as normal the only snow we have is in march.nothing 'went wrong'...we had a normal winter which was far more frosty then many recent winters.
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I'll think you'll find it's a myth.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/loc...gland/snow.html although I'm having trouble finding charts that show the number of days snow has fallen. I can go back 10years in memory and we have had heavy snow and had gritters out first 3 weeks in march on a regular basis.
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Can anybody tell me why time and time again early march produces the most snow for the south of the uk,and when was the last time we have had no snow in march?
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High pressure in winter doesnt always mean frost. One thing ive noticed about these winters is that any high pressures we get are often cloudy restricting frost. when i was a kid many of the high pressures in winter were clear ones giving us hard frosts.Exactly because we had swesterly feed cloudly no frosts.
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My readings only go back to 1984, but the trend is almost identical to your own. As mentioned by snowmaiden, the mild hasnt really got much milder, its just that the cold is less cold and also less common.
The period 1984-1987 was unquestionably snowy. After 1988 we then saw a decline in cold, though topplers and the odd more potent event (Feb 1991, Feb 1994, Dec 1995 etc) still remained. 1997 onwards then saw a change again. From then on it seems it has become incredibly difficult just to get a cold winter month. Potent events dont really occur at all now and even the topplers which always proved reliable for here have gradually become none-events. Just to cap it off though, recent winters have seen a reduction in the number of frosts. At this rate, what we consider winter will be all but extinct here.
Look lets get out of this hysteria if we had more high pressure systems in january we have a lot more frosts, its just that we had a large azores high which has dominated our weather feeding constant swesterlies simple as that.
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It's worth noting that although the winters were generally mild in the 1930s, apart from the odd cold month such as 1.6C CET in Dec 1933 (no month has been that cold since Feb 1991), the overall CETs for those years of the 30s all came below 10C apart from 1938:
http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley...av_temperat.htm
Since 1997, apart from 2001, all yearly CETs have been above 10C which shows that overall the last 10 years have been warmer than the 10 year period of the 30s, despite both periods having mild winters.
The winters down south have always been the same,yes we had more frosts simply we had more dry spells not since 1991 have we had a severe cold spell.So lets hope as normal heavy squally showers we get in march will give us the snow!
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All this bluster just because I had the temerity to post a link to a paper from a well respected, honoured and awarded climatologist who doesn't agree with the consensus view on AGW and CO2 in particular. If I'd posted Joe Bloggs from the Daily Express denounces AGW together with his reasons why, I'd understand.
Me thinks you all doth protest too much folks, this isn't a personal battle you know, calm down.
There is still much uncertainty over CO2 and the role it plays in AGW, not least the amount of impact it has had; if you don't understand this, think the science is a done deal, no more questions to be asked or research to be done then might I suggest your position is misguided, mis-informed and incomplete - perhaps more reading and research on your part is required before leaping on other members of this forum.Can anyone please tell me where the proof that the rise in Co2 is causing global warming,there seems to no proof ,but we keep on being told there is.
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Just seen the latest weather forcaste for friday night saturday that a cold front is moving down the uk(heaviest snow in the west of uk).The last time this happened we in swales had 10cm of snow in 3hours.
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Can you please explain what is a polar DIPLOW means? thats what is forcaste is for uk on febuary1
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Daffodils are not flowering that early , just the different type of daffs flower at different times. (the one that you will see around now are called febuary gold )Which are smaller then the trumpet daffs which are a lot bigger and flower from the end of feb onwards.
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hi all
this amused me it was an artical on the BBC today about snow in Bagdad Iraq, it goes to show that salt in wounds does feel painful :o .
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7183881.stm
anyone know of any other weird places that just dont have snow fall but have had some add them here.
LO
I can beat that sydney had snow in the peak of summer!
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Why would anyone think the consensus isn't driven by the science? Because Met O (all all the worlds various science bodies) are in on some conspiracy to deceive us? Poppycock.The met office isent driven by science but by money [there funded by goverment] and a lot of scientists are paid for by the goverment.Thats the the problem a lot of the global warmind debate has be clouded because the goverment as seen gw as a way of raising taxes.
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You are correct in what you say, there is often weather changes around the full moon [cold to mild wet to dry].Morning everyone , well so far this month as panned out to what i exepcted, , New moon on the 8th january} i expected a windy period , what happened, strong winds across much of the Uk, (8th new moon 15th first quarter] i expected it to be a cold period, whats happend so far, well cold for some but not all, Newcastle this morning currently -0.5c,, Next Moon Phase is the First quarter which will be on the 15thnigel
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OH i forget newzealand record lows [what have you got oh yes the ippc report or the met office report, all sponsered by the goverment].I must in no longer called global warming the trendy call it climate change.Keith, i'm not being funny, but the key word is in 'Global' warming. -
Joe may think Iran is somewhere like India that has blistering heat all year round, but what Joe may not know is that alot of Iran is elevated and mountainous and has very much a dry continental climate which is cold in winter away from the Persian Gulf in the south and hot in the summer, occasional heavy snows fall in the mountains of the north - particuarly near the Caspian Sea where winds can blow down from Siberia picking up moisture.
Record snow doesn't mean global warming isn't occuring - infact with the warmer the air the more moisture the air can retain - so when it does get cold enough to snow - as it always will in a continental landmass - then there is an increasing likelyhood that a record snowfall will occur. Remember record snow doesn't equate to unusual cold.
Try telling that global warming is taking place to the people of south america, record low temps in brazil chile 1000s died in peru .
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Fair point but there is also no proof of a rise or fall of world temps[bar that one from the met office concerning tiny country called the uk].I'm not going to say anything either for or against global warming, but I will say that this event proves nothing of the sort.If you nudge a tub of water of a particular depth with enough force that some spills out over the edge (relate the depth of the water to temperature - thus creating an overall cooling effect), as the water moves from one side of the tub to the other, you get a very shallow spot ( much colder) - but along with it, you get a very deep spot on the other side (much warmer), untill the water finally settles again at a slightly shallower depth (a bit colder).
The weather over the globe is a little bit like that - creating a change in one area may create an opposite change somewhere else (being the complex, fluidic system it is), untill some form of equilibrium is reached. When people lok at temperature vs decade graphs loking for trends, they are looking for signs of that equilibrium - where the temp would settle if given the chance.
Wales - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted · Edited by keithtod43
Very interesting forecast for the next few days warm sector is the problem, then as the front moves through rain turning back to wet snow met outlook interesting but confused lol
Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:
Wednesday will see rain and strong winds, with snow possible, perhaps even to lower levels. Drier and brighter on Thursday. Rain, strong winds and some hill snow developing during Friday.