wysiwyg
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Posts posted by wysiwyg
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Just been outside, temps dropped alot for here 2.3 and its starting to ice over now on cars and crisp but yet i can see clouds coming over from a south easterly direction, just been willing it to snow again! Saw the odd flake, bitter out there though now.
Still seeing another big blob of snizzle heading for us on the radar - next 30 minutes or so eta. This event is refusing to lie down and be over!!
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You two at it again with the bbq! Haha, erm pint of? Would you prefer a (if this doesn't say (if this doesn't say cockroft when referring to a bbc forecaster, I have maturity issues) Cockroft when referring to a bbc forecaster, I have maturity issues) (if this doesn't say cockroft when referring to a bbc forecaster, I have maturity issues) Cocktail of it, can give you a nice bit of peach if you like! Lol (thats my orange and itssnowjokes pink mixed together
So what colour is your sky over chorley then? Less than half a mile from me.
What the hell???
Oh jesus christ! Lol please delete that last post!!! I should have known the word filter lol same forum as mine
Veryveryvery very dark grey ....oh hang on.....
Hehe! Yes it was a peachy orange colour here too just before dark
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no honest proper pinky orange still is
I believe you mate - just couldn't resist the joke
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The sky is very pink now whys that?
It was orange here before
I'll have a pint of whatever you guys are drinking!!!!
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PPn is starting to rotate around i the Irish sea...bringing snow in a northerly direction towards Manchester.
can anyone else see this or is it just my eyes wishing?
Gee
I think a lot may depend on how much moisture is left in that.
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As I said yesterday there has been no really deep cold pool. Thicknesses have been relatively high and without clear skies we've struggled to get temps low enough overnight
Always the problem with a Scandinavian high. The NW will always be hovering in the milder side of the cold. We need a good solid Omega block centred over Greenland to really have a chance of snow followed by freezing daytime temps for west of the Pennines. Even then it's reliant on convection so very difficult to forecast in the medium timeframe.
EDIT: You beat me to it CC
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It is disappointing that we can't get low enough temperatures to avoid a thaw in January!
True. But without that warmer air around there would have been no snow at all!
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The tiny amount of snow we had has now all gone still got the annoying flakes which don't do anything falling.
SE Manchester very unlucky to miss out - I think you suffered the worst of the Pennine precipitation shadow effect
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......
Behave!!!
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Is it just me or is it kinda building around the Stoke area again?
The system is moving very slowly now and keeps pepping up all over the place. Could be more moderate snowfall anywhere in the region in the next few hours.
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I don't go in for the Met Office bashing most of the time but I have to agree here. The TV forecasts today, not showing the snow in the 'nowcast' bit even when it was actually falling, and still not forecasting it, showing it staying comfortably on the eastern side of the pennines hours after radars had shown it moving to the west has been desperately poor. They've got so wound up with the threat of blizzards to the east nobody bothered to check where it was actually going. Its fair enough to forecast it wrong initially, but to continue issuing false forcasts looks silly.
To be fair I think it was the BBC that were at fault (not speculating here as to why!). The MET office have been updating their forecasts and warnings all night and through today so far. And in weather terms that was a hard system to call. None of the models got it right in the reliable time frame. A small shift west 50-60 miles made the difference between "spot on" as originally forecast and "way off" as it turned out.
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Example of NWx paid radar - 5 minute updates, NMM overlays, 2 hour Hi-res playback, archived back a long way further etc. etc. (please note I'm not receiving any consideration for this plug from NetW, I just think it's a great tool to "see for yourself" exactly what's happening in the here and now with this type of setup!
)Current shot shows today's setup perfectly with the help of the overlays. A low centred over mid wales is dragging warm air up over the cold air to the north on its NE flank. An occluded front (The warm air is floating over the cold air and does not touch the ground) is running roughly through the Scotish borders east to west. As more warm air is pushed into this system it rises over the cold air, the warm air cools with altitude and pressure drop, its moisture condenses out and immediately freezes falling as snow. I suspect this feature is so weak now that the warm and cold air is almost mixed out giving the slight thaw currently being witnessed in some places. The track of this low (where it goes next) will dictate the weather for the next few hours. Latest 06Z GFS has it heading towards the NNW and merging with the larger LP system out to the west of Ireland that is trying to slide towards the SSE.
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I think the pepping up to the west that's currently being observed is due to the colder air meeting the slightly warmer air out to the west. Whether it all tracks back west or not will be down to where the current low tracks and if the warmer moister air out west can push back east. Very difficult to forecast from most of the models. Nowcast, radar loop watch and a big dose of Hopecast
to see if it does. -
Well that was all most unexpected. Finally got some sleep at about 4am. Seems I went just before the heavier stuff arrived. Although when I got up again around 8 it was still coming down nicely. On and off all morning since then. Still a steady but light fall now. Current depth estimate 2.5 inches (6-7cm). There's a slight thaw now - car showing 1C. Most side roads passable with care - main roads clear here. Just shows how random snow events are in this neck of the woods. Best falls in last 10 years or so have all been unforecast until within T-3. Some pics:
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I'm gonna call it a night now!! Hopefully ill wake to to something decent. Good luck to everyone else in the region.
Still coming down very nicely indeed!
Night all!
Take care driving in it in the morning.
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This is all very exciting. It's finally started to settle on wet surfaces here, if we can get the heavier snow to us we could be in for a decent amount come the morning.
Why is it the NW always seems to do better from unexpected events rather than expected ones. For example, the streamer in Dec 2010 that gave some of us huge amounts was not really forecast. Events that are supposed to be big for us usually end up downgrading to nothing like on Friday.
I think it largely boils down to geography. The Pennines to the east, lakes to the N, welsh hills to the S and irish sea to the west. This means that all forecast events are highly modified by the time they reach us apart from when we have a NWly flow of frigidly cold air when the Irish Sea becomes our friend producing convective snowfall that is virtually impossible to forecast. We need the blocking high to be centred over Greenland for that to happen though. As for the current situation - it's coming from a flabby slack low and the modification from the Pennines is difficult to factor into the forecasts meaning that we are seeing more snow than might have been expected from conventional modelling and forecasting.
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As expected the pennines are taking the real sting out of that blob to the east but still a chance of a heavier prolonged burst or two further west
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Met office changed there mind, heavy snow for me instead of light snow from 3am!
Warnings updated too although I'm still not even in the yellow zone. But I too have heavy snow showing at 3am then light snow after that all day
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The gap of lighter stuff between the two heavier areas has narrowed a lot in the last 30 mins
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Agonisingly close to me as well. Still 30 minutes or so if it makes it here but even if half that intensity gets here then it could dump at least a couple of cms on top of the cm or so already down.
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If that continues on it's current course, you can be sure of about 6 inches tomorrow rather than 1-2... doubt it will though, surely?!
Well as HC has already said it's heading west and intensifying as it does - would be nice if it got here unmodified
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I agree, my reply was quite vague and by all surfaces I was meaning footpaths, grass etc, not gritted roads
Hehe yes - I'm not doing too well on hitting the right quote button tonight - I should've quoted the OP to add to your already good explanation
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The snow has got a little heavier recently, if it carries on like this for a couple of hours it should stick to all surfaces
If the ground temp is at 0C it then the wet surfaces would turn to ice, helping the snow stick more readily.
You'll also need to factor in any surfaces that have been gritted (salted) as this will need 7-8 degrees lower to freeze (i.e. -8 to -10C) will take much longer for snow to accumulate here at the current levels. Heavier falls will settle more quickly on gritted surfaces though.
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Nice steady fall here for the last 30 mins or so. 0.5cm covering virtually everywhere that had melted away from last two days. Radars seem to be behaving now. Nice to see Preston and surrounding areas getting some too.
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to see if it does.
Northwest England - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
Nice to see the old WetNether Region threads up and running and reporting days of endless NO.
Hope you're all well - here's hoping for a whiter 14/15 than last year's mess!
BR
Wysi