wysiwyg
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Posts posted by wysiwyg
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10:30am BBC News Forecast still showing no snow for any of the North West north of Merseyside are they for real!!!
BBC news 24 forecast is a joke, saying it shouldn't be snowing here more than a flurry at all today!
There were plenty of warnings on here yesterday to ignore the BBC - bunch of jokers!!
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Looks like some heavier stuff moving N currently line across from south Blackpool through to Chorley and Horwich. WYSIWYG you digging yourself out yet ?
Yeah it's a bit heavier here now, bigger flakes and the sky is completely flat grey now as opposed to earlier when I could see the actual cloud bottoms. Deceptive in terms of accumulation as HC mentioned earlier. Still one or two bare and amazingly dry!!!! patches on the paths, but some cheeky little drifts forming now. Flat fall equivalent probably 3cm now when added to last night's effort.
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Their Northern extent of Amber seems bang on at the moment...I'd love to be able to see anyone predict a 50mile shift N or S of a snow event.
Yep. It's going to take something exceptional to warrant a red flash warning at this stage. Still reckon the amber might get shoved a little further north if the GFS verifies
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Opps looks like the Will It Rain Today site has blown a gasket!
Yep creaking under the load NetWeather radar still working OK for me
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Met Office warnings will be updated around 12, if this keeps up, am I the only one fully expecting a red for SW'ern parts of the region?
Probably!
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Looking at the radar we are right on the very NE edge of the snow and currently are dry.
Is the band likely to make any/much further progress NE?
yes
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Just give it time folks - the band of precip. is still moving NEwards. Already far closer to the GFS solution than the METO forecasts. If the GFS continues to verify this will be pretty much all day right til after midnight. Even light precip at 1cm snow per hour would give a substantial covering if it keeps going for the next 15 hours i.e. 15cm (6 inches) - i bet most of you would settle for a third of that!
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Light to moderate snow - big flakes - adding to last night's 1-2cm now
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Lots of snow near Chester, looks set to continue for many hours going by the radar, the BBC forecast got it wrong this time.
Still a chance they could be right and all this stalls and then shifts south again - my confidence is now rapidly building in favour of the GFS solution and I think you're right they have got it wrong. Only time will tell for sure though.
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Any idea of a pivot point (if any) for this? - looks to me like S Ulster?
Ian
That looks spot on to me!
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Still snowing steadily, coming up on half a CM now. I've got my ruler, how sad can you get!
You might need a decent tape measure before the day's out!!!!
(OOOPS!! RAAAAMMMPPPP ALERT!)
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I did a quick comparison of the 00Z precip charts versus the observed charts at daft o'clock this morning when I couldn't sleep with excitement if anyone's missed and might be interested:
http://forum.netweat...00#entry2524545
Basically shows that the first couple of frames of the GFS 00Z were pretty close to the actual precip. thus building confidence in it's short term output. It remains to be seen if the longer term output in the next 12 hours will continue to match but may add some hope that the GFS may just have edged the UKMET on this occasion!
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Snowing moderately here and sticking, I don't know how there can't be anything in Bootle
Seems odd but then again it is very light and patchy yet on the leading edge.
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Snowed lightly for the last 10 mins. Just stopped. My guess is that band has started to move west away from our region...
I don't see that on the radar. There is some intermittent light stuff ahead of the main front that is the remnants of last night's mini front!
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Rain today forecasting rain today for me , between 2.5mm to 6.5mm of it, will that fall as snow?
99% certain to be snow I reckon
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Its not really a snowless place here, infact I got 2cm of snow here from overnight.
No but if you discount places like the far SW and so on - it has to be the unluckiest place for snow in England
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Squeaky bum time for those of us north of the M62 will it/wont it .......
Hehe! Yes I reckon it's pretty close to where the METO predicted the Nrn extent. Nails starting to get bitten!!!
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Leading edge should be crossing the Mersey just now - still light on the front edge but some nice juicy stuff behind if it keeps going NE
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I have i cant get on it
Try NetWeather's free one as well - basically the same as the RainToday one.
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so in your view how many hours of Snow for South Cheshire(Macclesfield) to come today?
Well according to the GFS 00Z the precip hits there between 9AM and midday and doesn't stop until after midnight. Therefore if the GFS is close you could be looking at approaching 12 hours of the stuff. It's a big IF though and it's probably mostly light stuff like last night with maybe some heavier bursts in there at times.
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What are peoples feelings on this now it is at our doorstep?
I'm sticking with the GFS predictions that the front will get much further N and E than the UKMET is suggesting. I'll temper this by saying it's purely based on my own opinion which in turn is based on the fact that the GFS has stubbornly stuck to its guns since last nights 00Z i.e. the 06Z 12Z 18Z and 00Z (latest) have all shown the same thing in the reliable T-24-36 Hour timeframe.
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I've looked and looked again on the MeteoGroup radar and the boundary of the front must be through Hawarden, and just a smidgen SW of the Dee Estaury.
The precip. on the leading edge seems to have intensified in the last hour filling in the gap between last night's mini front and the main band. Just over the Dee from the Wirral now - still time for the UKMET to be right but still looking very promising IMO for areas to the N and E. just how far N and E remains to be seen.
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OK just throwing this out there as a little bit of support for the "lone ranger" GFS. A comparison of the radar and the predicted GFS precip amounts since the 00Z.
GFS 00Z at T+3 (03:00)
Radar at 03:30 (forgot to screen shot it at 3)
GFS 00Z at T+6 (0600)
Radar at 0600
Strikingly accurate modelling by the GFS so far IMHO. (can you tell I'm bored?)
Big question is will the GFS continue to be right in the face of the mighty UKMO or will it all start to slide South?
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I hope that's a good thing.
I'm hoping it means that the whole front is intensifying as it trudges slowly Nward (ever the optimist
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North West England Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013
in Regional
Posted
In the early hours of this morning I clocked it moving at 8MPH across Wales. It sped up a bit when it met the remnants of last nights snow. Seems to be moving now at pretty much the same rate it was moving earlier on.