azores92
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Posts posted by azores92
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Well been down Chichester most of the day, sunny in the morning but clouded over early afternoon with rain spreading in around 2-3pm.
parts of the midlands have been badly hit. torrential rain non-stop here today on my visit to brum. at least 15mm i would say so far.
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A strong La Nina and strong El nino usually does lead to mild condtions but weak-mod El nino/La nina usually don't over-rule other factors, in 2006-2007 it was the super positive AO that killed last witner, not the El nino, indeed it was just about one of the most positive AO's ever in winter, only 1988-89 can match it I believe.
so really there is nothing to say that el nino or la nina impacts the NAO?!
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i have stated it before, and i will state again, this is probably just a blip to the system with a strong la nina, as many people have stated before, if next year has a negative NAO then im sure a milder blip is not too far away.
the question is, will these strong la ninas that we are currently experiencing get stronger in the future. if so, then these cold winters will become more common, and of course, the cold winters will not be so evident in the uk. however, if el ninos gather strength, which is more unlikely, then global temperatures will be higher, and people will start to worry about AGW once more. for us to determine what the temperature around the world is likely to be come 20 years, we need to know the effects of CO2 on the stratospheric system, pressure systems, the NAO and el/la nino/a.
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If I may speak for Devonian, I really don't think that's a fair comment. Dev's posts are always well considered and backed with well referenced evidence and material. He is as far from backed into a corner as I can imagine.
The dam is not breaking. The sceptics still largely rely on the likes of e.g. Mr Casey and the NSCC, and we all know where that leads. The balance of evidence and systematic theory lies on the side of AGW, with the other camp still comprising a few unsubstantiated theories in obscure and unrefereed publications. So far, none of these have stood up to any kind of academic rigour.
It doesn't matter what we think: the scientific consensus is still holding.
can i say; i'm neutral towards this argument. the thought of a colder spell strikes me as being a little farfetched, but anyone is entitled to their opinions. the other day on the accuweather website i was reading that this cold spell is a one-off event, due to an unusually strong la nina present. however, in the next few decades, i still believe there will be a bias towards stronger la ninas, and to some extent that the statement this man gave has flaws in it. so i can see some deep fluctuations within the next century; some very cold years, and some very hot ones aswell. hopefully next winter will have a moderately low NAO, so we get some good precipitation which will fall as snow!
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With the charts looking very similiar to those during easter 1998, do people think we are looking at an equally snowy if not snowier easter than 1998 this year?
Potential to record the coldest and snowiest easter since 1983 still very much in the air.
damien although there is time to change, i do not think any records will be broken next weekend. imho i think the most likely outcome is several centimetres to higher ground across some parts, with wetter snow and sleet to lower parts. correct me if im wrong, but thats what its shaping up to be. i wish it will change for the better
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I've had a thought to settle this once and for all............................ask 1 member to pick 5 numbers out of 10 in favour and the remainder numbers are counted against the arguement,we blindly post our choice of number and at the end of the alloted time the poll is counted and we abide by the result for a couple of weeks?
Surely we'll get just as far forward.
can i ask someone, what is the likelihood of this year being a positive NAO year? many thanks.
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Chilly this morning, cloudy but dry at the moment.
Wind NE @ 20kts
dry?! we've nearly had 24 hours worth of persistant rain!!
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T+120 I know ,but this baby looks pretty evil to me and maybe wintery?
well lets just say if that pulled off, virtually all of the uk would be in the grip of a snow event. the heart of the low is enough to give whiteouts with the tight isobars,in scotland and even the southern uk is at risk for strong winds. possibly a little overplayed, but we shall all see what bbc weather predicts for monday by eight pm.
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I wonder if we actually breached sub-10 during the 12 months to April 2006? The 12 month for May 2005-April 2006 was 10.04
The following 12 months to that 'freezathon' came in at 11.63 (ouch) - which is precisely why we are able to produce (possibly) 12 consecutive months lower than their preceeding counterpart without troubling the long term average - because we have come off the back of a period so far removed from our previous understanding of the possible that it is almost unbelievable but for the fact I recall it!
can someone answer my question please? la nina is expected to disappear by the end of the year, implying perhaps a better winter?!
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Actually just had another look and 1998/99 gave 16 days with either snow falling or any snow lying however small to 3 inches the most then,to this winter`s 12 so not an awful alot of difference there (incl nov on both which gave 2 inches this time).
Frosts 1998/99 wasn`t bad either considering it was a la nina with I worked it out as 23 air to 21 ground/as this time 22 air to 29 ground frosts.
Following year 1999/2000 gave 6 more days of snow and only 18 air frosts/25 ground frosts.
to summarise record breaking temperatures hit part of central england(-10), with plentiful frosts, and snow was in very short supply. come on next winter, just imagine what would happen if 1963 happened all over again. the website would have to close down due to so many posts!
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An interesting possibility that I certainly hadn't thought about. We certainly have the facility to monitor day by day.
so what do we think about the winter. some are suggesting a temporary halt to la nina, after a gradual weakening throughout 2008, and some are suggesting yet another mild year. i personally dont know, what do you think?
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the question is; what does next winter hold, and is it gonna be a lot better than what we have had so far? i personally believe that this warming trend cycle may be broken next year as a one-off, but noone knows. the charts throughout 2008 show a mixed bag, some months well above average and some below. winter of next year hasn't been predicted yet, so we shall have to wait and see. what do we think?
Saturday 29th March 2008
in Weather reports
Posted
looking at the latest radar i think its almost fair to say the worst of the rain is over. the front is dissipating a little bit. i think a weather warning for the south-east is a little farfetched.