Phil UK

A bit of a rain shift conflict going on at present as to how far west the main area will travel. BBC are being elusive as usual. Central News, ITV and Channel 5 think it may spill as far west as east Wales. But we'll just have to wait and see who are the more accurate. Personally I'd prefer the showers/thunderstorm sector around the centre hub of the LP. Otherwise weather for Solihull so far has consisted of moderate morning rain and just a small shower about an hour ago. Can't see anything else occuring unless that area over east Wales fancies a evening trip to the West Midlands. Phil.

I will indeed clarify that, Jane. However... I think if you work outside of your town or city then I suppose that would theoretically count. I will have to ask the boss what she thinks and make it a part of the NSC terms and conditions. But preferably a storm seen, be it a couple of miles out, or directly overhead in your own home location does count. Either way, thunder and lightning has to be seen and heard. Phil.

Cheers, Nick F. The rain from this front is just about knocking on Solihull/Birminghams doorstep. But if it does pull in the TM (Tropical Maritime) airflow then I think PPN intensification will occur. And on that happy note, I'm off to bed. But have photo inventory set up just in case. (And with past set ups, usually meaning a waste of time! :-s ) Good luck. Goodnight. Phil.

Hi Aaron. Heat lightning is nothing more than lightning from distant storms reflected. Theoretically it is intracloud but as another member said a few minutes ago, was visible from North Wales but the storm being several miles away in Liverpool. The same if a storm is much closer is sheet lightning. Same thing but can be a misnomer as to what types of lightning. Basically, all lightning is the same. Distance, as Nut pointed out with a distant Cb lit up from inside or if under a stratus canopy and a nearby storm is the sheet lightning phenomena. Another misnomer being spider lightning which is intracloud that spreads from the cumulonimbus base but doesn't make contact with the ground. More cloud/cloud than from the individual cell. I've only ever seen the latter once and it was awe-inspiring. Spread from West to east horizons. But that was back in the stone age where digital cameras were just an idea in mind. But maybe another time. Phil.

It is a joy to watch. Until last September (23rd) I had to wait 16 years to see night lightning down here in Solihull. And even that, hypothetically speaking was out of the blue. They are the best storms, cloud illuminated from the inside. Potential for my area even tonight according to the MetO and other sources says sporadic lightning but I think more wet than anything else. I have my camera ready though, just in case. Phil.

Good morning, Nut. (Something I get called on occasions but that's another story!) There was an area of heavy precipitation around the time you mentioned in Glasgow, (or Glasgee in Scottish dialect!) so chances are that you were viewing distant intracloud lightning. Phil.

I think enough to wet the ground, Bugganuts but I'm looking a bit further south west at a large finger of cloud as to what could be the MetO is referring to for the weather warning tonight and tomorrow. It will it seems go through Bristol and surrounding areas before maybe intensifying later on? Just a rough guess but it seems like storm potential will favour the west since the last time that storms that favoured the west way back when. (Even I can't remember that. But August 2003 was one of those occasions). Phil.

Good morning peoples. Going by Coast's maps, and I'd agree that west looks best but inland UK may have to wait for a few hours yet. Predominatly tomorrow or Friday I would have thought. Now I know it's early in the morning, and we've not had the anticipated 'Frenchie' or his Sister MCS2 (Missed Coast's Slightly!) But if one comes in from the west and keeps strength well inland, then maybe... "Bristol Bruiser" or "Cheltenham Charged up", "Liverpool Lightning", "Manchester Monsoon" Any better suggestions, feel free to add. Just a bit of fun whilst we await potential, whether it comes to pass is another issue altogether. But interesting morning sunrise, make of that image below what you will as Solihull is/was currently stuck between Frenchie's force and the curly wurly to the west of Ireland. Phil.

Helloooooooo NSC boss. Conditions are looking like al la 5th and moreover 7th August 2011. After the 'Frenchie' and 'Epic Fail' MCS of the previous few hours, just maybe a bit of luck may be on our side this time. Good luck all. Phil.

I think, Supacell. Not stupid but with GFS, METO,ECM and ESTOFEX having differing points of view as to how last night/early hours of today would pan out. Even I would be a doubting Thomas as to whether stay up and watch, go storm chasing, OR give up the ghost altogether and just go to bed. All too often since 2008, we've seen the sort of plumes which years before would have seen hours of heavy rain and embedded MCS thunderstorm activity over much of the UK from a slow moving occlusion from the Bay of Biscay now seems pretty much non-existent, or takes an irregular track which of this year alone seems to favour NE France, Belgium and Germany. Why this is, I don't know? But my more memorable set ups were July 1987, July 1989, August 1991, September 1992, <--- The latter not strictly a Spanish plume but inland dirunal storms widely developed overnight from a south west - north east trajectory. July 1994, August 1995. I'm just sorry for those who in the great expectancy areas saw little, if anything of the MetO 'prediction' some 20-odd hours ago, I think anywhere from Weymouth, Solihull up to Lincolnshire saw little rain at all, yet warnings in place but like Harry, and paraphrasing slightly said... "All warning for this, but none for Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole last week". An irony for that seeing the Dolphin shopping centre closed because of flooding. Now that was serious Dolphin weather. Phil.

You may indeed, Dave. But we don't want you here for any longer than is necessary. It's not that we don't appreciate members, far from it but a Spring/Summer or even Autumn is not complete without a decent thunderstorm. Good luck. Phil.

Well it's been a long day. Credit to whom named Frenchie, "Frenchie". (I can't be @rsed to check back over 30 odd pages. And if it doesn't pay off, MCS1 or MCS2, (Maybe an MCS3?) I think there will be a few other 'French words' spoken at some point tomorrow. Phil.

I detect an influx into the NSC tomorrow. Normally, there are two time spans where Frenchie* can deliver and they are between 11pm and 2am from home grown, and/or from a slow moving occlusion with the centre of the LP being near or around Cherbourg. (I've seen it myself with almost 24 hours of heavy and on its front edge, embedded thunderstorms. 1991 I think?) The other being between 4am and 7am. Though more common with a west-east front (August 2003 and September 1992, even in dear old Solihull). So don't give up hope just yet. Met Office, Channel 5 and ITV weather all more or less stated that the early hours will be the most likely, predomintaly for the south east. But in this situation, anything goes. Phil. © SnowMania 2011*

Grease. John Travolta. (Showing my age now! ) Phil.

Have noticed, Paul. I think our resident member in Jersey hasn't seen anything yet. I have a pretty good feeling that much of the south coast could well be in for a treat if this MCS can hold firm. Not that Bournemouth or Dorset need any more rain but I wish you all the best. But as I said in an earlier reply... STAY SAFE!! Phil.

I agree, AJ. Why bother watching something that to many has no interest at all to the masses but keeps you on tenterhooks when something interesting may occur? You know... "You expect this sort of thing at this time of year so I don't see why the big deal?" I am of course talking about Big Bore-other. Phil.

There's a certain club you can become a member of if it all goes pear-shaped. Although this is probably the best opportunity for many over the south of the UK this year so far, especially for night time sferic activity so I'll be disappointed if nothing comes to fruition, especially in designated areas where storms look almost certain. Good luck, and if out chasing at stoopid O'clock, stay safe! Phil.

Could be, and for some tonight... 'Red sky at night... Stormwatchers delight'. But the saying in general 'Red sky at night, Shepherds delight can be a bit of a misnomer as a mackerel sky (As posted by Lauren et al) can be a forewarning of inclement weather for the next day. But if a front that has passed through and the same occurs, then normally a more settled next day, albeit with possible showers. Phil.

I must have missed those on Saturday. Radar looked pretty clear before I went to bed unless they were of the diurnal type. Typical otherwise. That's twice then this year. Just after midnight on 28th June 2011 and now maybe 20th/21st August 2011? I need to change my sleeping pattern. Become more nocturnal when sferics seem likely. And if the set up is right, then I'll sleep with one eye open for any storm potential tonight. I have camera tripod mounted and batteries charged. Just needs the skies to be charged. Phil.

It's called Sod's Law, Wet'n'Dry. Just a dampening of the ground here in Solihull today. Seems like what occured in Dorset/Bournemouth earlier on today even took the Met Office by surprise. Casting ahead to Sunday, It's looking pretty borderline as to whether Solihull will see anything in respect of thundery activity. One can but hope. :-) Phil.

Absolutely, Jane. Normal terms and conditions apply. (Unless Jane says so!) Small print below... Ooo! Nice new layout, Paul. Phil. No Storms Club Terms And Conditions : We begrudgingly welcome all to this NSC 'No Storms Club' if you feel you have been cheated for a while out of a decent thunderstorm over your particular area. We, Jane and the teaboy Phil will not however tolerate any profanities or harm to others, man or beast such as kicking the cat if the promised storms over said areas fail to materialise, (Unless it's someone elses cat!) We wish you well for the remainder of Summer 2011 and beyond. And may all your storms (if lucky!) be long, loud, and bright.

I can only think of early September 2008 with major flooding down your area that lasted well over 24 hours courtesy of a stagnant occluded front. Was widespread from an area also spanning Gloucestershire, Worcestershire and Herefordshire and had embedded thunderstorms in it. I might have the year wrong however. Maybe Ian (Thundery Wintry Showers) could add more insight into this? And Jane... I feel kinda guilty having read your reply to me. So I hereby dedicate my storm yesterday also to you. Phil.

I have to admit, Jane that I thought you'd be more likely to see a storm today rather than me, given all the radar activity down your way earlier on this afternoon. After all the disappointments of late this Spring/Summer 2011, I wasn't expecting anything out of the ordinary. A shower or two maybe but not a full blown overhead thunderstorm. But I'll remain here as the teaboy, even though I'm theoretically out of here. But I can't understand why so long without a storm down your way, be it overhead, 5 miles away, 10 miles away or thereabouts. I think I'd have gone mental by now. Just hope that Carl43Wrexham can maintain his sanity. :winky: Phil.

Now that would be somewhat freaky if myself and Jane left the NSC on the SAME DAY!! I'll still help her to run it as I promised her a year or so ago. So although I'm no longer in the NSC theoretically, I'm still in the NSC? If that makes any sense at all? :unsure: Phil.

I am now mate, effectively as of 4:47pm on Sunday 7th August 2011. YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYY!! That was a total surprise which on the horizon looked like a small mass of cumulus until about 10 minutes later I heard a rumble of thunder. Looked outside and thought I was hearing things. Then another a couple of minutes later... 25 minutes then of monsoon rain, IC and CG lightning, one of which was soooo close and provided your proper gunshot/earthshaker type thunder. Have not heard such a boom like that for what must be at least since August 2003 during that record heatwave thundery breakdown. A few pics for your perusal. And behind the storm... Phil.