Ian Fergusson

Yes, the NAE and UKV in broad agreement, albeit taking the clusters also a tad further northwards (compared to the NMM) into Yorkshire / Durham / Tyyne & Wear and the majority then exiting 'stage right' into the North Sea by around 20-21z. Also a signal for some hefty cells later into this evening in the NW (to the south of Cumbria).

Phew... UKMO modelling for last night proved pretty close to reality, especially their call to keep the MCS just off the SE quadrant in the Channel. Let's see how the UKV high-res models pan-out for today, then... including a consistent signal for some deep convection to pop-up from late afternoon in parts of the S-SW Midlands / N Glos / N Wilts / Oxon and environs, in the convergent flow, ahead of the upper trough axis. Some of those look pretty potent in the modelling.... we shall see. Elsewhere, bar a few exceptions up in northern districts of England and up the coast from Lincs northwards, it all tends to quieten-down and dry up now and overnight.... if the models are to be believed! After brief transient ridging to quieten everything down overnight and early tomorrow, we then look to the next upper trough arriving - it will dominate proceedings into this coming working week, offering distinctly unsettled and often thundery weather for many. Things start turning decidedly wet from the SW with the arrival of an active, overrunning system, currently expected to be throwing an arc of showery rain across much of southern England by around 12z and then turning heavier and more persistent thereafter. However, the period of note is Tues / Wed especially. Some real potential here for hefty PPN totals / PPN rates through localised deep convection as well as directly via fronts themselves; influences also being imported up in a system from the south will tend to underpin the upper trough's influence in-situ (2007 springs to mind). For this forum especially, I'm sure some very interesting points of discussion lie ahead, as well as some very lively weather. Do stay tuned! Ian

Tuesday.....

I'll bet, Rosemary - looks v tasty on radar and the lightning detection system!

I can only share the low resolution zoom of our ATDNet returns with you, but it gives a steer for those of you after the current T-storms...

Anyone else noting those sudden (increasingly) developmental returns on radar in the E Channel south of Hants?

LATEST LIGHTNING IS: Various locations: Last 5 mins, multiple returns incl: Just south of Newbold Verdon, west of Leicester; Near Eydon, ENE of the A361 and NE of Banbury; Various, around Newark on Trent, Caythorpe and Sleaford

OK, so things will start to happen quickly now, across certain districts.... keep close eye on the very fast Oxon / Northants developments, for example; plus further cells of interest into Lincs (near RAF Cranwell) and parts of E Anglia. Plus the showery precip off Conrwall might show signs of activation (less probable). It'll be tough to keep up to speed with it all locally, me thinks....

LATEST LIGHTNING is.... That increasingly vigorous cell tracking NNE, previously mentioned by a correspondent here.... north of Banbury, Oxon. It's delivered lightning a few mins ago overhead the village of Priors Hardwick (Oxon, I assume). Plus second cell now forming just south above Deddington, near Brackley. Northampton in the firing line, perhaps?

LATEST LIGHTNING is.... That increasingly vigorous cell tracking NNE, previously mentioned by a correspondent here.... north of Banbury, Oxon. It's delivered lightning a few mins ago overhead the village of Priors Hardwick (Oxon, I assume).

No need to apologise! The 'missing ingredient(s)' remains rather elusive but subject to considerable study..... in essence, not all CB's are thundery! But let's see what happens once the upper forcing starts to get into the act properly, versus the largely diurnal processes this afternoon / evening. Fingers-crossed for you! Cheers, Ian

Quick indeed; first bouts of (regular) lightning suddenly now lighting-up the ATDNet system in the SE quadrant of the Brest Peninsula, south of Pontivy....a foretaste for the SE of England, perhaps? We shall see.....

??? Urmmmm..... I just checked radar loop back since 20:00hrs and some of the best cells anywhere in England have been above Hull and now are out just offshore into the North Sea (PS: I again emphasise the critical discrimination between heavy showers and thunderstorms... the latter is a different matter to guarantee! But the NAE / UKV highlighting of Hull and environs has looked pretty good from where I'm watching the radar....)

Typically Altocumulus castellanus with virga (precip falling but evaporating). They're rather quaint.

Nothing taken for granted in current forecast evolution (Re Sussex). For radar / SFERICS: various sources, not least here via Netweather..... otherwise suggest http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur and zoomable function.

Actually I meant Suffolk!! Apols. LATEST LIGHTNING is....... approx 500m north of the village of Dunstall Green, east of Newmarket / south of A14, for those of you chasing any T-storms....!

Oh and PS - for those eager (especially in my region) for MCS action, I refer to the very latest briefing we've had from UKMO re Tuesday's evolution... quote: "Once main vortex has arrived in the SW on Tuesday, there is an increasing risk of surface based deep convective cells, especially towards the SW of England. These could be slow-moving and organised into MCS-style clusters." All is not lost....

UKMO models aren't eager about developing any MCS here whatsoever (different story, perhaps, over on the near continent). But we'll see - all subject to doubt. Each model run offers somewhat different solutions. Important to distinguish this messy destabilisation / evolution tonight from 'classic' Spanish Plume etc. Plenty of time to see this through the coming Summer....

0100BST onwards (into mid Sunday) looks fairly soggy for your area on latest of our modelling but I really do stress the level of sub-regional uncertainty. It's a radar-watch / nowcast gig, for sure. The same applies everywhere. Plus the discrimination between soggy v thundery needs major emphasis....!

Well, I was just reading the latest briefing from the Chief F/C at Ops Centre and viewing his modified NAE graphics.... the thrust of things remains distinctly easterly for tonight in those areas previously discussed on this forum, as the upper trough arrives tonight across the SW (and it still hasn't arrived, in case people were getting vexed)..... signal for some heavy rain and showers into various parts of the west tomorrow however, but low confidence remains a key point of emphasis in terms of spatial / temporal detail. The general theme, for all, is showery outbreaks becoming more prevalent overnight; the fresher, cooler feel being very marked tomorrow and equally, a widespread threat of showers / rain, some heavy and perhaps thundery. Incidentally, the latest high-res models continue to offer a very thundery-looking aspect to the plume emerging northwards into E Kent, up across the Thames Estuary into E Essex and Sussex / Norfolk through the early hours (current timing suggests arrival through E Kent around 01 - 0400 BST).

I suspect it's picking up the former flashes near the Humber (i.e., southwards of you) as there's nothing between there and you. Next nearest TS in last 25 mins north of you has delivered (very little) lightning overhead Prestonpans and Whitecraig, east of Edinburgh.

Hmmmm.... I suspect spuriously? Recorded on what system / site, out of interest? The ATDNet system we use via UKMO tends to be very accurate (to within 1km or so). It shows the only SFERICS south of Scotland within the past 25 mins from a cell just north of Elsham, west of the A15 south of the Humber (none in past 10 mins); and currently (actively so) from just north of Brogborough, Beds, (near Milton Keynes) and a tad north of there overhead Cranfield, Beds.....

Likely to be a direct hit, assuming it retains identity and development.... some potent PPN rates with this cell now.... see below. No SFERICS as yet.

Yes - a pretty vigorous little cell right now over the likes of Ealing / Perivale, with lively PPN rate on radar with each passing minute...

Me thinks another cell now likely to pop-up v soon near Kings Langley and head NE across St Albans. Looks developmental in that area of SW Herts...